Michael Budde , James Verdin , and James Rowland USGS – FEWS NET

1. Remote Sensing Support to Famine Early Warning: Prospects for Uptake of Sentinel-2 Observations and Products Michael Budde, James Verdin, and James Rowland USGS – FEWS NET Sentinel-2 Agriculture User Consultation 25 April, 2012 – Frascati, Italy

2. Famine Early Warning Systems Network An activity of the Office of Food for Peace at USAID, which directly supports its goal: “to ensure that appropriate… emergency food aid is provided to the right people in the right places at the right time and in the right way” FEWS NET is a food security decision support system with its own climate services

3. FEWS NET Implementing Partners CORE PARTNERS NETWORK MEMBERS Chemonics International (Prime Contractor) World Food Program (WFP) Food and Agriculture Organization (FAO) National Government Ministries Price/Market Information Systems Meteorological Centers Non-governmental Organizations (NGOs) Regional Institutions (SADC, CILSS, COMESA, IGAD, ASEAN) Other UN agencies (UNICEF, UNHCR) • Evidence for Development - Livelihoods • Overseas Strategic Consulting - Web Dev. • Action Against Hunger - Nutrition US Geological Survey - EROS University of California, Santa Barbara (UCSB) NOAA CPC, NOHRSC, ESRL USDA FAS NASA GSFC Kimetrica

4. FEWS NET – Where we work The Purpose of FEWS NET • To prevent famine and mitigate food insecurity by providing decision makers with information that is accurate, credible, timely, and actionable. • To strengthen the ability of FEWS NET countries and regional organizations to provide timely early warning and vulnerability analysis.

5. The FEWS NET Approach Convergence of Evidence Field Assessments Market/Price monitoring Rainfall Forecasts Nutrition Surveys Conflict Remote sensing

6. The FEWS NET Approach Consider evidence in the context of local livelihoods

7. The FEWS NET Approach Scenario Building Climate Forecasts Other Info: Trade, Conflict, Health… Current FS status Livelihoods Seasonal Calendars National/Regional Food Security Outcomes

8. The FEWS NET Approach Comparable Classification East Africa Estimated food security Outcomes, Sept 2011

9. The FEWS NET Approach Effective Decision Support

10. Remote Sensing / Modeling • Livelihood systems are based on subsistence agriculture and/or pastoralism, and are highly climate-sensitive • Conventional climate station networks are sparse and often late reporting or don’t report at all • Satellite remote sensing and modeling fill the gap, and provide the basis for early detection of agricultural drought • Rainfall, vegetation, snow pack, actual ET, crop water requirements are monitored for both rainfed and irrigated crop lands as well as pastoral areas • Observations are focused by region and seasonality based on crop calendars

11. Current real-time Monitoring Capabilities Modeled Derivatives NDVI RFE LST Operational Remote Sensing

12. Current real-time Monitoring Capabilities USGS FEWS NET Data • Africa - 60+ products • Afghanistan - 25+ products • S. Central Asia - 8 products • S. Asia - 5 products • L. America / Caribbean - 12+ products • Global - 5 products http://earlywarning.usgs.gov/fews

13. FEWS NET Online Analysis Tools Early Warning Explorer (EWX) Regional interactive map viewers Time series of eMODIS NDVI, cumulative RFE, and Dekadal RFE RFE Anomaly MODIS LST eMODIS NDVI eMODISAnom • Multi-level time series analysis • Ability to analyze analog years • Time series data download • User interface to dynamically compare standardized anomalies • Framework to incorporate NASA data into routine analysis

14. Operational Monitoring – eMODIS Example eMODIS (EROS MODIS) background • Developed by the LP DAAC (USGS-EOS) at EROS in 2007 • Funded by vegetation monitoring stakeholders • Expedited and Historical products for Terra and Aqua MODIS • CONUS, Alaska, C. America/Caribbean, Africa, and Central Asia eMODIS Provides • Ability to customize compositing periods • Consistent and timely processing (Expedited within 12 hours and Historical 3-5 days) • Minimized Re-sampling • Improved spatial resolution (i.e. 250m)

15. eMODIS NDVI - LANCE LANCE is an Earth Observing System Data and Information System (EOSDIS) and provides near real-time capabilities for applications, operational agencies, and researchers. The LANCE system supports eMODIS expedited processing through the provision of timely surface reflectance data. • Expedited • LANCE Level-2 Surface Reflectance • Final eMODIS product delivered within 12 hours of acquisition • Historical • LAADS Level-2 Surface Reflectance (ephemeris & atmosphere) • Final eMODIS product delivered within 3-5 days of acquisition

16. eMODIS System USGS/EROS eMODIS NDVI – Expedited Data Flow Composite +18 hrs FEWS NET eMODISNDVI and Anomaly Maps USGS FEWS NET Processing System (stack, smooth, create products, develop time series, package data for distribution) Terra MODIS T+9hrs FEWS NET Decision Support System (USAID FFP) EDOS MODIS L0 Data T+3hrs MODIS L2 Data Input to Impact Assessment s and Food Security Decision Making LANCE

17. Potential Applications of Sentinel-2 Data Extension of Existing Waterhole Monitoring • Active for 41 waterholes in Kenya / Ethiopia • Website provides daily information on the status of a waterhole relative to the median and previous year • High resolution multi-spectral imagery needed for waterhole identification/delineation Validation with field data captures trends and seasonal variation successfully

18. Potential Applications of Sentinel-2 Data Targeted Rangeland / Cropland Monitoring • Continuous monitoringof rangeland resources; focusing on critical period(s) of livestock migration to “dry-season” grazing areas. • Delineation of known dry-season grazing areas and water-points. • Identification of robust indicators and analysis • Refined mapping of migratory patterns. • Identification of key livestock markets & trade flows. • Potential constraints i.e human/wildlife conflicts, animal diseases and Govt. policies (X-border). • Focused Cropland Assessments

19. Potential Applications of Sentinel-2 Data Irrigated Area Mapping / Delineation Helmand Province, Afghanistan • Utilizes high resolution imagery in combination with 250m MODIS NDVI to annually map irrigated areas in Afghanistan. • Provides knowledge of expanding or abandoned areas under irrigation. • Allows for more accurate monitoring of irrigated agriculture conditions. False Color Landsat Image : May 27, 2004 Irrigated Areas 2004 Using peak NDVI threshold

20. Potential Applications of Sentinel-2 Data Cropped Area Estimation The Need • Cropped area is a critical component of estimating food production in the developing world and is often inaccurately reported . • Independent cropped area estimates provide an unbiased assessment. The Approach • High-resolution imagery allows us to “visit” a large number of locations with no access restriction • Imagery is interpreted as crop, no-crop, and other using a dot grid approach • Dots are attributed with external data – geophysical and demographic • Statistical models are built - generalized additive mixed model • Models predict cropped area for locations where we do not have imagery • Produce country-level estimate of cropped area High resolution image (~1 M) for Haiti with a 500 M dot grid overlain (yellow dots)

21. Requirements for use of Sentinel-2 Data • Near real-time processing capabilities (e.g. LANCE system for MODIS surface reflectance)- expedited data delivery is key to being applicable as real-time monitoring tools • Ability to streamline data delivery process - similar to the Web-enabled Landsat data (WELD) Project • Sentinel-2 data available at no cost – even low cost creates a bottleneck in the ability to utilize the frequent revisit time for early warning applications • Interoperability with Landsat 8 – the ability to leverage observations from both Sentinel-2 and Landsat 8 to create comparable products at even better frequency than either sensor can offer is a true benefit to the earth observing community

22. Benefits for Famine Early Warning The need for a “closer look” – as FEWS NET, we need to assess broad-scale food security issues, but are increasingly requested to focus our attention at finer scales - an example from S.Somalia Worst Drought in 60 Years • The worst drought in 60 years, on the heels of two failed rainy seasons, had devastating impacts on the eastern Horn of Africa in 2011 and led to a declaration of famine in southern Somalia. • The drought conditions coupled with conflict in Somalia created uncertainty in the state of the agricultural system going into the short rainy season (Oct – Dec, 2011) 2010/11 rainfall compared to historical totals since 1950/51 in select pastoral areas of Kenya and Ethiopia

23. Benefits for Famine Early Warning • Together with the Food Security and Nutrition Analysis Unit (FSNAU), FEWS NET monitored the short rainy season and potential crop conditions for specific irrigated and rainfed areas on a frequent basis, updating time series every 5 days based on eMODIS NDVI. • Extremely good rains throughout the season led to improvements in pastoral conditions and cropped areas appeared to perform remarkably well (time series below). • However, there was still concern over whether traditionally cropped areas were actually planted due to the likelihood of outmigration resulting from conflict. • Sentinel-2 observations with their frequent revisit schedule, fine resolution, and applicable spectral characteristics would have been suitable to provide that “closer look”.

24. Thank you