1 / 40

South African prospects from 2008 to 2013: The next five years

AMT October 2008. South African prospects from 2008 to 2013: The next five years. The next five years in the SA economy. World economy. Something on financial markets. SA economy. Labour markets Inflation and rates GDP. A weak spot in the currency. Summary.

neva
Download Presentation

South African prospects from 2008 to 2013: The next five years

An Image/Link below is provided (as is) to download presentation Download Policy: Content on the Website is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use and may not be sold / licensed / shared on other websites without getting consent from its author. Content is provided to you AS IS for your information and personal use only. Download presentation by click this link. While downloading, if for some reason you are not able to download a presentation, the publisher may have deleted the file from their server. During download, if you can't get a presentation, the file might be deleted by the publisher.

E N D

Presentation Transcript

  1. AMT October 2008 South African prospects from 2008 to 2013: The next five years

  2. The next five years in the SA economy. • World economy. • Something on financial markets. • SA economy. • Labour markets • Inflation and rates • GDP. • A weak spot in the currency. • Summary.

  3. Latest World GDP forecasts. Source: IMF WEO 2008

  4. Emerging markets manufacturing

  5. S & P 500: 1970’s and now.

  6. CRB commodity prices

  7. Commodities: Early 70’s and now.

  8. SA over the Long-Term, Just a reminder….. The economic story…..The other transition in SA.

  9. The Phases of the SA long term structural cycle. Start here

  10. SA inflation and rates 2007 - 2012

  11. Long term CPIX chart

  12. Capacity constraints are starting to lift inflation.

  13. Trade partners’ weighted PPI and SA PPI.

  14. Farming input costs (fertilisers)

  15. Real prime rate Stals vs. Mboweni

  16. Prime and household expenditure.

  17. Short term rates decline as well but decline over for now.Average nominal prime rate per decade.

  18. Inflation and rates. • CPIX to peak around 13,5% this year after which it should decline again. • PPI may near 20%! • Nominal wage increases will be around 12% with 100 basis points margin either way. • Prime will have to go to around 15,5% and stay there for around 1 year before decreasing back down again. • Slightly higher interest rates foreseen in the next five or so years than the last three years.

  19. Long term GDP growth trend on the up.South African growth breaks on the upside of the long-term average.

  20. Business Confidence survey.

  21. Demand side GDP growth by sector with forecast.

  22. Share of fixed investment by organisation type.

  23. Manufacturing likely to slowdown.

  24. GDP and trade growth and forecasts.

  25. Commodity prices

  26. Long term commodity prices

  27. Commodities by Category.

  28. Oil prices and diesel and petrol.

  29. Oil consumption rebased for selected countries.

  30. US Maize price per ton.

  31. Are food commodities in a bubble? • Support from emerging market growth and richer consumers. • Support from supply side as land is being used for “fuel” production BUT>>> • But there are now concerns about bio fuel production from these higher food prices as well as the process not being green. • Expensive to produce bio fuels.

  32. Cost per kilometer.Average European prices and average European Car. BMW for Hydrogen.

  33. One very weak spot for SA.

  34. SA Trade balance.

  35. Foreign Flows and the trade weighted Rand.

  36. Rand vs. Commodity prices.

  37. Summary • Inflation to be higher because supply side constraints. • Interest rates not likely to decline much soon. • Growth to slow before picking up in 2010. • Job growth will be weaker but we still expect growth. • Thank You

More Related