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USDA Outlook for the 2011 U.S. Farm Economy

USDA Outlook for the 2011 U.S. Farm Economy. Timothy Park Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division. Value of agricultural sector production expected to increase $37.4 billion in 2011. Value of agricultural sector production. Value of crop production.

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USDA Outlook for the 2011 U.S. Farm Economy

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  1. USDA Outlook for the2011 U.S. Farm Economy Timothy Park Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division

  2. Value of agricultural sector production expected to increase $37.4 billion in 2011 Value of agricultural sector production Value of crop production Value of livestock production Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  3. Real value of projected agricultural sector production up 8.8 percent in 2011 Value of agricultural sector production Value of crop production Value of livestock production Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  4. Crop cash receipts projected up $24.1 billion Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  5. Livestock cash receipts projected up $4.3 billion in 2011 $ Billion Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  6. Farm businesses represent almost 850,000 farms and account for 94 percent of production 1,344,031 577,028 270,795 Small farms with sales less than $250,000 whose operators report farming as their ajor occupation. Small farms whose operators report they are retired or they had a major occupation other than farming. Farms with sales greater than $250,000 and farms organized as nonfamily corporations or cooperatives. Farm Businesses

  7. Higher average net cash incomes projected in 2011 for crop farm businesses Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  8. Average net cash incomes for livestock farm businesses expected to recede in 2011 Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  9. Regional disparity for farm business income prospects in 2011 The farm level forecasts are derived from partial budget modeling on the 2009 Agricultural Resource Management Survey (ARMS) using parameters from the sector forecasts.

  10. Government payments forecast at $10.6 billion --- lowest since 1997 $ Billion Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  11. 2011 expenses expected up 6.8% ** 3rd largest increase since the late 1970’s ** Percent Source: USDA, ARMS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  12. Purchased input expenses projected up $16.4 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  13. Farm origin expenses projected up $5.2 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  14. Manufactured input expenses forecast up $6.1 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  15. Payments to stakeholders expected to rise $2.7 billion in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  16. 2011 real assets and equity anticipated to surpass 2007 peak values Real farm sector assets, debt, and equity 1987-2011f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  17. Share of farm assets financed by debt expected to decline in 2011 Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  18. Net farm income expected to rise in 2011 $ Billion Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

  19. SUMMARY

  20. http://www.ers.usda.gov/Briefing/FarmIncome/ Briefing Room: Farm Income and Costs Sign up for ERS Charts of Note http://www.ers.usda.gov/ChartsOfNote/ Farm Income and Costs Overview 2011 Farm Sector Income Forecast (Updated 2/14/11) 2009 Farm Sector Income Estimates (Updated 8/31/10) Farm Business Income Assets, Debt, and Wealth Farms Receiving Government Payments Data Sources Recommended Readings Recommended Data Glossary Debt Landscape for U.S. Farms Has Shifted

  21. USDA Outlook for the2011 U.S. Farm Economy Timothy Park Farm and Rural Business Branch Resource and Rural Economics Division

  22. Farm sector profitability improves in 2011 Nominal and inflation adjusted net farm income, 1970-2011f Source: USDA, ERS Note: 2010, 2011 forecasts

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