Presentation at SULI July 12, 2007 Burton Richter

1. Seeing through the Fog - Climate & Energy in the 21st Century Presentation at SULI July 12, 2007 Burton Richter Freeman Spogli Institute of International Studies Senior Fellow Paul Pigott Professor in the Physical Sciences Emeritus Stanford University Former Director Stanford Linear Accelerator Center

2. Greenhouse Gases Atmosphere Sunlight

3. Mauna Loa, Hawaii Source: Dave Keeling and Tim Whorf (Scripps Institution of Oceanography)

4. Quantitative Greenhouse Effect

5. Removal Time and Percent Contribution to Climate Forcing

7. CO2 Today

8. IIASA Projection of Future Energy Demand Scenario A1 (High Growth)

11. “Science,” 305, 968 (August 13, 2004)

12. Primary Power Requirements for 2050 for Scenarios Stabilizing CO2 at 450 ppm and 550 ppm M. Hoffert, et al., Nature, 395, p881, (Oct 20, 1998)

13. CARBON FREE ENERGY Ready for Large-Scale Deployment Now Conservation and Efficiency. Nuclear for Baseload Application. Ready for Limited Deployment Now Solar for Daytime Use. Wind with Back up from Others.

14. Energy Intensity and Composite Fuel Price in North America

15. Power (TW) Required in 2050 Versus Rate of Decline in Energy Intensity

16. Carbon Dioxide Intensity and Per Capita CO2 Emissions -- 2001 (Fossil Fuel Combustion Only) 25.00 United States 20.00 Netherlands Australia Canada 15.00 Belgium Tons of CO2 per person California Denmark Germany 10.00 Austria Japan New S. Korea Zealand Italy Switzerland France 5.00 Mexico 0.00 0.00 0.10 0.20 0.30 0.40 0.50 0.60 0.70 0.80 0.90 1.00 intensity (tons of CO2 per 2000 US Dollar)

18. Peak Load vs. Base Load Peak Load Base Load

19. CO2 Intensity(IEA, Key World Energy Statistics 2003)

20. World Nuclear Expansion(as of January 2007)

21. The Nuclear Critics • It can’t compete in the market place. • It is too dangerous. • We don’t know what to do with spent fuel. • Proliferation risk is too big to accept.

22. Costs

23. Radiation Exposures

24. Nuclear Accidents Chernobyl (1986) – World’s Worst Reactor type not used outside of old Soviet bloc(can become unstable) Operators moved into unstable region and disabled all safety systems. Three Mile Island (1979) – A Partial Core Meltdown LWRs are not vulnerable to instabilities All LWRs have containment building Radiation in region near TMI about 10 mr. New LWRs have even more safety systems.

25. Radiotoxicity of LWR Spent Fuel

26. Yucca Mountain Repository Layout

27. Components of Spent Reactor Fuel

28. Internationalize the Fuel Cycle Supplier States: Enrich Uranium Take back spent fuel Reprocess to separate Actinides Burn Actinides in “Fast Spectrum” reactors User States: Pay for reactors Pay for enriched fuel Pay for treatment of spent fuel (?)

29. LWR Separation Fast System Separation Separation Plant (one for every 7 - 8 LWRs) Plant Plant Reproce ss ed Fuel Actinides Actinides U&FF U&FF U&FF Fast System LWR Actinides (a) Transmutation Schematics with LWR Recycle (b) Without LWR Recycle

30. Coal Largest Fossil Fuel Resource US & China each have about 25% of world resources IF CO2 emitted can be captured ad safely stored underground, problem of reducing Greenhouse Gas emissions is much easier.

31. CO2 Sequestration • Most study has been on CO2 injection into underground reservoirs. • Capacity not well known

32. FutureGen $1 Billion Industry-Government Partnership to Generate Electricity & Sequester the CO-2

33. Wind • Commercially viable now (with 1.6¢/kw-hr subsidy). • Nationally about 5000 Megawatts of installed capacity (2500 in CA). • But, the wind does not blow all the time and average energy delivered is about 20% of capacity. • Wind cannot be “base load” power until an energy storage mechanism is found.

34. 100-Mile Circle Altamont Pass Wind Farm

35. EON-NETZ (GERMANY) WIND POWER VARIABILITY AVERAGE IS 20% OF INSTALLED WIND CAPACITY

36. Solar Photovoltaic • Expensive but costs are coming down. • Also has a storage problem (day-night, clouds, etc.) • Some places solar can be important. • In U.S. solar is negligible (less than 10% of wind, mostly in CA).

37. Other Renewables • Big Hydroelectric: About 50% developed world wide. • Geothermal: California, Philippines, and New Zealand are the largest (CA ≈ 1.5 Gigawatts). • Bio Fuel: Not big yet.

38. Conclusion • Global Warming is real and human activity is the driver. • Not clear how bad it will be with no action, but I have told my kids to move to Canada. • We can do something to limit the effects. • The sooner we start the easier it will be.

39. Conclusion • Best incentives for action are those that allow industry to make more money by doing the right thing. • Carrots and sticks in combination are required. • The economy as a whole will benefit, but some powerful interests will not. • It is not hard to know what to do, but very hard to get it done.

40. BACK-UP SLIDES

41. World Population Growth

42. Final Energy by Sector(IIASA Scenario B)

43. Energy Intensity(Watt-year per dollar)(IIASA Scenario B)

44. Comparison of Life-Cycle Emissions Source: "Life-Cycle Assessment of Electricity Generation Systems and Applications for Climate Change Policy Analysis," Paul J. Meier, University of Wisconsin-Madison, August, 2002.

45. Some Comparative Electricity Generating Cost Projections for Year 2010 on US 2003 cents/kWh, Discount rate 5%, 40 year lifetime, 85% load factor.Source: OECD/IEA NEA 2005.

46. Repository Requirements in the United States by the Year 2100*

47. Public Health Impacts per TWh* *Kerwitt et al., “Risk Analysis” Vol. 18, No. 4 (1998).