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Assessing Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in South Eastern Latin America

This project aims to assess the vulnerability, impact, and responses of coastal areas, agricultural systems, and farmers in South Eastern Latin America to climate change. It will develop adaptive strategies and build capacity for assessing and addressing climate variability and change in the region.

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Assessing Climate Change Impact and Adaptation in South Eastern Latin America

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  1. South Eastern Latin America • LA26: Impact of GC on coastal areas of the Rio de la Plata: Sea level rise and meteorological effects • LA27: Building capacity to assess impact of CC/V and develop adaptive responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems in the Argentinean and Uruguayan pampas • LA29: Integrated assessment of social variability and adaptation to CV and change among farmers in Mexico and Argentina • LA32: Assessing global change I, V & A strategies for estuarine waters of the Rio de la Plata

  2. AGRICULTURE COASTAL AREAS LA32 To assess vulnerability, impact and responses of the Río de la Plata estuarine ecosystem to plan adaptation strategies. LA26 To assess the vulnerability ofhuman activities and natural areas on the coast of the Río de la Plata to sea level rise. LA27 To develop capacity, establish, use and maintain an agricultural systems network in the Pampas to assess the I of CC/V To develop adaptive responses for the mixed grain/livestock production systems LA29 To examine the adaptation strategies used by farmers under climatic and socio-economic changes To investigate the ways to enhance their adaptation capacity by improving technical and analytical capacity, within the context of current policy trends. Objectives To strengthen technical capacity of the participating countries in vulnerability and adaptation studies to climate variability and change

  3. -15 -40 -70 -45 Common Framework • Information: • Climatic • Non Climatic • Region: • SE South America • Rio de la Plata basin

  4. CLIMATIC Daily data from several surface weather stations Gridded global datasets (daily and monthly) Rivers stream flow Sea level NON CLIMATIC Demographic projections Economic: GNP, input & prod. prices, etc Land use Water consumption Population spatial distribution Other (crop yield, livestock prod., etc) Information

  5. Regional scenarios strategies • Link SRES with regional climate scenarios (at least 3 from SRES) • Estimate relevant variables changes (CO2, Temp, Sea Level) using MAGICC

  6. Climatic information needed • Daily and monthly: • Precipitation • Temperature (minimum and maximum) • Solar radiation • Wind speed • Geopotential 925, 850, 500, 250 hPa • Sea level • Extreme events (daily and hourly): • Precipitation • Wind speed • Sea level

  7. Uncertainties • GHG and aerosol emissions scenarios • Model sensitivity • How models represent the present regional climate • Data quality and representativeness(climatic and non climatic)

  8. -15 -40 -70 -45 Spatial and temporal scales • Temporal scale: • Monthly: Tmax, Tmin, Precip, Sol Rad, Wind, SLP from weather stations in the region. • Reanalysis NCEP 2.5° x 2.5°. • Daily: Tmax, Tmin, Precip, Sol Rad, Wind and SLP from weather stations and from NCEP reanalysis. SL from gauge stations. • Hourly: Wind and SLP. • Outputs from a RCM (every 6 hours) after dynamic downscaling (GCM from IPCC/DDC). • Hydrological data: stream flow (Paraná, Paraguay, Uruguay, Iguazú). • Latitude 15° S - 40° S. Longitude 70° W - 45° W

  9. Baseline climate data • Surface Climate: 6 variables • Monthly series for 1961-2000 (reference period 1961-1990) • Observational gridded dataset (proposed 10x10 km)

  10. Individually by project Explore regional climate centers support Additional training Obstacles & actions to overcome Data access and sharing information Regional model climatology Skills on dynamical downscaling

  11. Approach to regional mentors, Xianfu Lu and AIACC core programme • Coordinate a proposal for regional training activities in the use of RCM, GCM and downscaling. • Provide assistance in designing climate scenarios & databases. • Promote regional workshops. • Facilitate contacts with specific institutions and information on new funding opportunities.

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