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Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges. T. X. Hammes August 2007. Marine Palm Pilot. Purpose. How and why warfare changes Recent evolutions in fourth generation Potential fifth generation What’s after that. 4GW is Just a Model . Varied terminology used in descriptions
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Fourth Generation War Evolves, Fifth Emerges T. X. Hammes August 2007
Purpose • How and why warfare changes • Recent evolutions in fourth generation • Potential fifth generation • What’s after that
4GW is Just a Model • Varied terminology used in descriptions • Toffler’s Waves • Forms of Energy • Generations of RMAs • Fourth Generation Construct • Focus on modern war • Simple • AQ uses it
War Reflects Society • Economic • Political • Social • Technology “Military institutions and the manner in which they employ violence depended on the economic, social and political conditions of their respective states.” On War, Clausewitz, Paret translation, pg. 6.
Four Generations • Massed Manpower – Napoleonic • Massed Firepower – WW I • Mechanized War – WW II • Insurgency (information) – dominant since WW II
China • Mao – Political struggle is PRIMARY • Organized all of society • Three phases • One – Political organization • Two – Guerrilla fight –“change correlation of forces” • Three – Conventional fight – ONLY after Phase II is successful • First to write it down
Vietnam • Imitated and improved on Mao • Used international networks to change correlation of forces • Tet 68 disaster tactically, strategic victory • Used political power to negate US military power • Still ended with conventional invasion
Nicaragua • Coalition of insurgent groups • NEVER sought military victory • Target was US Congress • International media, celebrities, mainline Christian churches • Defeated Somoza politically • No Phase III offensive
Palestinians – Intifada I • First Intifada spontaneous eruption • Organized within weeks • Loosely affiliated – “self organizing web” • Never even had a military aspect • Multiple messages • International – children vs. powerful army • Israelis – Israel proper safe, occupied zone unsafe • Palestinians – We are holding our own • Result – 1993 Oslo Accords
Al Aqsa Intifada • Reverses roles • Israel back to besieged • Palestinians back to ruthless terrorists • US position • No negotiation until terror stops • Supports Israeli security techniques • Includes seizure of more territory on West Bank
Afghans vs. Soviets • No unified resistance – changing coalitions • Essentially tribal = network • Overlaid religious and xenophobic aspects • Massive killing failed • Broke Soviet will
Al Qaeda • “Fourth Generation Wars have ... proven the superiority of the weaker power.” Ubeid al-Qurashi Jan 2002 • Proto-typical non-nation state 4GW enemy • Transnational coalition of willing • Idea based • Global network of local insurgents • Strategic guidance is vertical • Tactical support is horizontal
Iraq • Classic 4GW approach • "The war is very long, and always think of this as the beginning. And always make the enemy think that yesterday was better than today.'‘ ZARQAWI • Tribal, ethnic and religious networks • Was Network of the willing • Sunni Salifi, Sunni secular, Shia radicals, Free Lancers, Foreign Jihadists • Now the predictable civil war
Hizbollah-Israeli Summer War • Hizb understood political aspects • Built political base – services • Fought political fight • Saw victory is secured after fighting • High-low mix • Long range missiles Israeli focus • 122mm Rockets most effective • Technological surprise – C802, UAV • Lateral escalation!
Will we go back to 3GW? • War is “contest of opposing wills” • Cost of hightech vs insurgency • Record of success • Conventional = Status quo • Unconventional = Change • 5-0 versus Superpowers
4th Generation – Insurgency Evolved • Direct attack on minds of decision makers • Uses all available networks – political, economic, social and military • Superior political will defeats greater economic and military power. • Wars are measured in decades. Political, Protracted, Networked
Key Changes in 4GW since Mao • Strategic Shift • Organizational Shift • Participants Increase • Weapons
Strategic Shift –Insurgents’ View • NOT a military campaign • Strategic Communications Campaign • Supported by interagency efforts • Military action is NOT primary • Military action cannot solve the problem
Operational Shift • Coalition of the willing • Afghanistan, Chechnya, Iraq • Often hate each other • Transdimensional • Identify, recruit, indoctrinate, train, deploy, control • Attack • Fund
Participants • Armed groups • Clans, tribes • Criminals • Private Military Companies • State use as well
Weapons ofMass Disruption Previous Incidents
Anthrax and Ricin Capitol Hill Included a warning and instructions
Bombings Madrid London
Weapons ofMass Destruction Practical Methods
Chemical: Bhopal One temporary morgue Killed = 15,000 Long term injury = 200,000
HYE: Oklahoma City Truckload of Ammonium Nitrate
Texas City Ship Explosion Rail Cars – 3 / 4 Mile from zero
HYE: Texas City Ship Explosion Shipload of Ammonium Nitrate
Summary of 4GW • Conflict is now Strategic Communications • Focus is outsiders • Internal conflict still bloody • Enemy will be shifting “coalition of the willing” • Many more players with various motivations • Cheaper, deadlier weapons
S CurvesInnovation/Technology Development Maturation Institutionalization Rapid Growth Adoption Experimentation Innovation
Generations of War 5th – All of Society 4th – All of Govt. 3d – Combined Arms Prevalence/Performance 2d – Branches Time
5GW Incubating Now • Political – Pressure on nation state • Economic – Smaller Entities • Social – Loyalty to cause not nation • Technology - Bio tech, Nano-tech, Always on Net
Foreshadowing • Attacks • Capitol Hill -- anthrax - no information • London, Madrid – bombs – no connection • Increasing “cause” attacks • Earth Liberation, Animal Liberation Fronts • Several areas – cyber, nano, bio • Biological advances • Synthetic biology – Dr. Venter • Australians and Mouse Pox • Carlson’s Curve • British student
5GW Goal • Stop Globalization • Potential “coalition of the willing” • Globalization losers • Fundamentalist movements • Environmental radicals • Destroy ‘trust’ – inhibit movement • Information – physical not cyber • Personnel – relationships • Material - containers
Nightmare 5GW • Super empowered individual or small group • Uses increasing power of knowledge creates “off the shelf” technology • Loyalty to “cause” not nation Anthrax on Capitol Hill Smallpox Worldwide
Rate of Change • Kurzweil’s SINGULARITY • Change is exponential not linear • Overestimate in short term • Underestimate in long term
Bottom Line 21st Century will not bring 100 years of progress It will be 20,000 years
Additional Information www.d-n-i.net “The Sling and the Stone” txhammes@excite.com