Report to the UPDEA 39 th General Assembly By How to prevent lack of Generation Capacity in SAPP

1. Report to the UPDEA 39th General Assembly By How to prevent lack of Generation Capacity in SAPP SAPP Executive Committee Representative Tanger, Morocco 30 November 2007

2. General Information Demand and Supply in SAPP Rehabilitation and Short Term Projects Transmission Projects CONTENTS

3. GENERAL INFORMATION DR Congo Tanzania Angola Malawi Zambia Zimbabwe Namibia Mozambique Botswana Swaziland South Africa Lesotho Key Statistics • 12 Countries • 230 Million • Annual consumption 250 TWh • Electricity growth rate 3% p.a. • Generation mix • Coal 74.3% • Hydro 20.1% • Nuclear 4% • Gas/diesel 1.6%

4. Installed Available 2006 Peak No. Country Utility Capacity Capacity Demand [MW] [MW] [MW] 1 742 590 432 Angola ENE 2 132 120 473 Botswana BPC 3 2,442 1,170 993 DRC SNEL 4 72 70 101 Lesotho LEC 5 305 261 251 Malawi ESCOM 6 307 320 Mozambique EDM 2,250 2,075 HCB 7 393 390 408 Namibia NamPower 8 42,011 36,208 34,807 South Africa Eskom 9 51 50 188 Swaziland SEB 10 897 680 567 Tanzania TANESCO 11 1,752 1,302 1,302 Zambia ZESCO 12 1,990 1,825 1,904 Zimbabwe ZESA 53,124 41,744 44,741 TOTAL Power Supply and Demand Non-coincidental 2006 peak demand for interconnected grid: 40,554MW Available hydro capacity varies depending on season

5. The SAPP Planning Data is indicating that SAPP runs out of generation surplus capacity after the year 2007.

6. Peak Demand in 2006 & 2007 • Load shedding in ZESA, ZESCO and NamPower in 2006 at peak periods • Interruptible Load Contracts, Demand Market Participation and DSM utilised in ESKOM. (Experience in 2006) • This demonstrated that supply was not adequate • The 2007 indicates that actual generation reserve capacity were lower than normally planned. • Demand Side Management Initiatives have been initiated and supported

7. Total Capacity Commissioning (MW) Date Country Plant Capacity [MW] Comment Angola Capanda 1 2 x 130 260 2004 New Tanzania Ubongo 2 x 40 80 2005 New Zambia Kariba North 1 x 30 30 2004 Uprating South Africa Camden 2 x190 380 2005 De-mothballed Zambia Kariba North 30 30 2005 Uprating South Africa Camden 190 190 2006 De-mothballed South Africa Arnot 6 x 20 120 2005 - 2006 Upgrade Swaziland Maguga 20 20 2006 New Zambia Kafue Gorge 2x15 30 2006 Uprating Total 1140 Commissioned Generation Projects [2004-2006]

8. New Generation Projects in 2007 • ESKOM commissioned 2 x 190 MW at Camden in 1st quarter of 2007. • ESKOM commissioned 1050 MW – Commercial Operation was in May 2007 (OCGT). • TANESCO commissioned 100 MW GT at end of Sept 2007 at Ubungo. • SEB to commission 20 MW at Maguga before Dec 2007.

9. Priority Projects The SAPP priority projects have been agreed as follows: • Rehabilitation & associated transmission projects. • Short-term generation projects • Expected to be commissioned before 2010 • Completed feasibility studies • Approved Environmental Impact Assessment • Transmission projects • Medium to Long-term generation projects • Expected to be commissioned after 2010 • Most have no feasibility studies and EIA

10. Classification of Generation Projects

11. Planned Rehabilitation & Short Term Generation Projects2007 to 2010 Generation Capacity MW Country Angola 343 Botswana 600 DRC 1136 Lesotho 28 Malawi 104 Mozambique 912 Namibia 800 RSA 6639 Swaziland 20 Tanzania 260 Zambia 1350 Zimbabwe 1315 TOTAL 13507 • Annual Average Planned New Generation Capacity = 3,327 MW • Most Projects are on track to be commissioned before 2010

12. The above projects have secured funding and are currently in progress. • They are expected to be commissioned before 2010. Country Capacity Contribution

13. REHABILITATION & SHORT TERM PROJECTS Country Capacity, MW Percentage Botswana 600 4.6% DRC 1,136 13.1% Lesotho 28 0.3% Malawi 104 1.2% Mozambique 912 10.5% Namibia 800 9.2% South Africa 2,541 29.3% Tanzania 260 3.0% Zambia 1,170 13.5% Zimbabwe 935 15.2% TOTAL 8,486 100 • The above projects are ready but have not reached financial closure. • If funding was available, the should be commissioned by 2010.

14. Kenya H Gabon Congo Nairobi Dem Rep of Congo Rwanda Burundi Brazzaville Kinshasa Tanzania H H Dar es Salaam H H Luanda H Angola Malawi Zambia Mozambique H Lilongwe H H Lusaka H H H H T H H H Harare H H T H Namibia H Zimbabwe Botswana T H Windhoek T Gaborone SOUTHERN AFRICAN GRID T T H Pretoria T T Maputo T T T T T T Johannesburg Mbabane T T Swaziland T P H Lesotho South Africa H Hydro station H Pumped storage scheme N P Cape Town Thermal Station P T A total of USD 4.7 billion is required to develop the identified transmission projects

15. SAPP Members (All)Diminishing Generation Surplus Capacity 75000 70000 65000 60000 55000 MW 50000 45000 40000 35000 30000 2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015 Year Capacity Planned Capacity Required Peak Demand USD 7.9 billion needed to develop 6,700 MW by 2010-Financial needs

16. UPDATE ON SAPP INTERCONNECTORS Mozambique - Malawi • World Bank approved the finances. • Detailed designs being done. • Commissioning to be in 2009. • CEC - SNEL second 220 kV Interconnector • Total Transfer capacity for the 2x220 kV lines would be 500 MW. • Zambian side finalized and to be funded by CEC. • SNEL to be supported by the World Bank.

17. UPDATE ON SAPP INTERCONNECTIONS Zambia-Tanzania-Kenya 330 kV line • Commissioning date shifted from 2008 to 2011. • Heads of Agreement to be signed by the 3 Governments at the end of Oct 2007. • Draft Power Purchase Agreement to be discussed by the 3 Gvts in Livingstone. • Initial power proposed to come from Zambia then other SAPP countries.

18. SAPP Capacity Expansion Plans • In order to avoid power shortages as early as 2007/8, the SAPP would have to spend US$4.3 billion to complete projects in progress and to rehabilitate some plants.

19. Southern African Power Pool www.sapp.co.zw THANK YOU