Climate Change and Animal Agriculture: Thinking Beyond the Spherical Steer

1. Climate Change and Animal Agriculture:Thinking Beyond the Spherical Steer Eugene S. Takle Professor of Atmospheric Science Department of Geological and Atmospheric Sciences Professor of Agricultural Meteorology Department of Agronomy Iowa State University Ames, Iowa 50011 gstakle@iastate.edu Animal Think Tank, Iowa State University 26 February 2007

2. Outline • Changes in atmospheric carbon dioxide • Radiative forcing • Simulations of global climate and future climate change • Climate change for Iowa and the Midwest • Four components for addressing climate change • Impacts of climate change on animal agriculture Except where noted as personal views or from the ISU Global Change course or the Iowa Environmental Mesonet, all materials presented herein are from peer-reviewed scientific reports

3. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843.

4. CO2, CH4 and temperature records from Antarctic ice core data Source:Vimeux, F., K.M. Cuffey, and Jouzel, J., 2002, "New insights into Southern Hemisphere temperature changes from Vostok ice cores using deuterium excess correction", Earth and Planetary Science Letters, 203, 829-843. Pattern repeats about every 100,000 years Natural cycles

5. IPCC Third Assessment Report

6. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2007 380 ppm

7. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature 2050 550 ppm

8. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm

9. Carbon Dioxide and Temperature “Business as Usual” 950 ppm ?

10. E. S. Takle, ISU Global Change course

11. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

12. http://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gifhttp://www.ncdc.noaa.gov/img/climate/research/2006/ann/glob_jan-dec-error-bar_pg.gif

13. Mann, M. E., R. S. Bailey, and M. K. Hughes, 1999: Geophysical Research Letters 26, 759.

14. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations.

15. Natural and anthropogenic contributions to global temperature change (Meehl et al., 2004). Observed values from Jones and Moberg 2001. Grey bands indicate 68% and 95% range derived from multiple simulations. Natural cycles

16. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

17. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

18. Source: IPCC, 2001: Climate Change 2001: The Scientific Basis

19. El Chichon (1982) Agung, 1963 Mt. Pinatubo (1991) At present trends the imbalance = 1 Watt/m2 in 2018 Hansen, Scientific American, March 2004

20. Source: Jerry Meehl, National Center for Atmospheric Research

21. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

22. Tropical Atlantic Ocean Hurricane Power Dissipation Index (PDI) Sea-surface temperature V V V Emanual, Kerry, 2005: Increasing destructiveness of tropical cyclones over the past 30 years. Nature, 436, 686-688.

23. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

24. Also… • Precipitation in the central US has increased since 1970 • Fraction of high-precipitation events has increased since 1970 • Extended ice-free periods of lakes has increased • Milder winters

25. Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

26. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

27. The planet is committed to a warming over the next 50 years regardless of political decisions Mitigation Possible Adaptation Necessary Source: National Center for Atmospheric Research

28. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

29. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

30. IPCC Fourth Assessment Report Summary for Policy Makers

31. Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More (~10%) precipitation (medium) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Higher absolute humidity (high) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by modelsNo current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

32. Four-Component Approach for Addressing Climate Change • Mitigation policies: 2050-2100 • Example: reduction in GHG emissions • Adaptation (long-term): 2015-2050 • Example: Developing Iowa’s competitive economic advantage • Adaptation (short-term): 2008-2015 • Example: redefining climate “normals” when needed and scientifically justified • Scenario planning for Iowa’s “Katrina”: 2007-2100 • Example: Multi-year drought, recurrent floods, combination of both; drought and wildfire EST personal view

33. Adaptation Tactics If a meteorological variable began departing from its long-term background near or after 1970 it may be related to the radiation imbalance and thereby has a better chance than not of continuing its new trend over the next 5-10 years. EST personal view

34. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

35. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

36. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

37. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

38. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

39. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

40. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

41. D. Herzmann, Iowa Environmental Mesonet

42. Projected Changes for the Climate of Iowa/Midwest (My tentative assessment) • Longer frost-free period (high) • Higher average winter temperatures (high) • Fewer extreme cold temperatures in winter (high) • More extreme high temperatures in summer (medium) • Higher nighttime temperatures both summer and winter (high) • More (~10%) precipitation (medium) • More variability of summer precipitation (high) • More intense rain events and hence more runoff (high) • Higher episodic streamflow (medium) • Longer periods without rain (medium) • Higher absolute humidity (high) • Stronger storm systems (medium) • Reduced annual mean wind speeds (medium) Follows trend of last 25 years and projected by modelsNo current trend but model suggestion or current trend but models inconclusive

43. North America Regional Climate Change Assessment Program Linda O. Mearns,National Center for Atmospheric Research Principal Investigator Raymond Arritt, William Gutowski, Gene Takle, Iowa State University Erasmo Buono, Richard Jones, Hadley Centre, UK Daniel Caya, OURANOS, Canada Phil Duffy, Lawrence Livermore National Laboratories, USA Filippo Giorgi, Jeremy Pal, Abdus Salam ICTP, Italy Isaac Held, Ron Stouffer, NOAA Geophysical Fluid Dynamics Laboratory, USA René Laprise, Univ. de Québec à Montréal, Canada Ruby Leung, Pacific Northwest National Laboratories, USA Linda O. Mearns, Doug Nychka, Phil Rasch, Tom Wigley, National Center for Atmospheric Research, USA Ana Nunes, John Roads, Scripps Institution of Oceanography, USA Steve Sain, Univ. of Colorado at Denver, USA Lisa Sloan, Mark Snyder, Univ. of California at Santa Cruz, USA http://www.narccap.ucar.edu/

48. Kansas

49. Kansas

50. Kansas