Geopolitics of Transnational Organized Crime: Future Challenges and Threats

1. Geopolitics of Transnational Organized Crime: Future Challenges and Threats Ambassador DrUgljesaUgiZvekic

2. Geography of Transnational Criminal Flows • Latin America to North America; West/Central Europe;West Africa • Asia (Afghanistan) to West/Central Europe; Central Asia/RF • North Africa to West Europe;South/Central Africa to SouthEast Asia/China/Japan • Eastern Europe to West Europe;South/Central Africa • West Europe to Eastern Europe/Afghanistan • West Europe - within

3. Geopolitics of Transnational Criminal Flows • Suppliers of criminal flows: mostly from developing world and countries in transition • Receivers: North America and West/Central Europe; Asia • But • Europe/North America: Suppliers of illegal arms, precursors, illicit capital flows, money laundering, corruption, female trafficking victims

4. Geopolitics of Transnational Organized Crime Flows vs. Markets • Disparity between the geography of criminal flows and criminal markets • Criminal Flows: from developing to developed • Criminal Markets : developed (but increasingly developing) • Is geopolitics opportunity framed ?

5. United Nations Convention against Transnational Organized Crime (Palermo Convention) • Adopted by GA Resolution 55/25 of 15 November 2000 • Entered into force on 29 November 2003 • Parties: 179 • Serbia: 6 September 2001

6. Trafficking in Persons and Smuggling of Migrants • Destinations: North America/West Europe • Origins: Latin America/Eastern Europe/Asia/Africa But • From Eastern Europe to Africa • From Asia (China/Korea) to Africa • Within EU: more than ½ from EE and the Balkans • Within EU: Ease of movement

7. Criminal Markets for Persons • Sexual exploitation: 79% • Forced Labour: 18% • Markets mostly located in North America/West Europe increasingly in Africa and Asia • Increased labour exploitation in developed markets due to “making the labour closer to the capital” and demand for counterfeiting

8. Protocols supplementing UNTOC (1) • The Protocol to Prevent, Supress and Punish Trafficking in Persons, especially Women and Children: in force as of 25 December 2003; Parties: 159 • Serbia: 6 September 2001 • The Protocol against Smuggling of Migrants by Land, Sea and Air: in force as of 28 January 2004; Parties: 138 • Serbia: 6 September 2001

9. Protocols supplementing UNTOC (2) • The Protocol against the Illicit Manufacturing of and Trafficking in Firearms, their Parts and Components and Ammunition: in force as of 3 July 2005; Parties:107 • Serbia: 20 December 2005

10. Drugs: Flows • Heroin: 90% from Afghanistan to Russia and Europe (via the Northern and the Balkan routes) • Cocaine: vast bulk from the Andean region to North America and Europe (via Central America; West Africa) and Southern Cone of Latin America • Cannabis: From Africa (Morocco) and Asia (Afghanistan) to Europe; from Central America to North America but increased domestic production; the challenges of legalization (Dutch; Uruquay; Colorado; Washington State) • New Psychoactive Substances: worldwide production and trafficking

11. Drugs: Markets • The largest world market is for cannabis: increased supply from foreign and domestic production – an increasing world market • Cocaine: decline in the USA market but Europe becoming the largest world market; emerging cocaine market in Southern Cone of Latin America • Heroin: increasing Russian market but stable European market • NPS: the fastest growing production, trafficking and world market

12. International Drugs Conventions • Single Convention on Narcotic Drugs of 1961 as amended by the 1972 Protocol • Convention on Psychotropic Substances of 1971 • United Nations Convention against Illicit Traffic in Narcotic Drugs and Psychotropic Substances of 1988 • Serbia (ex-Yugoslavia) party to all three

13. Cigarette Smuggling • One of the biggest and the oldest TOC business • Out of estimated USD 16 billion global cigarette trade 25% is illict • Traditional OC (e.g. Italian Mafia; the Balkan OC; Polish OC; Russian and CA OC; ) • Non-European: Turkish OC; Arabian OC (North Africa/Middle East) • Within EU: Dutch, Belgium, UK • Hard-core “drug traffickers” but also migrants and elderly living from a social security allowances (informal economy) • Big multinational companies (e.g. R.J.Reynolds in breach of the UN and the US embargo on Iraq): Puerto Rico – EU ports – Cyprus – Lebanon – Turkey - Iraq

14. Cigarette Smuggling: Why still there ? • One of the oldest smuggling activities • State control vs. unpaid duties and tax evasion (VAT) • Cigarette smuggling flow: towards markets with the highest excise rate (UK; Ireland; France; Germany; Nordics) – the Northern trade belt • Western Balkans considered one of the most dyamic areas for cigarette smuggling

15. Tobacco Convention • WHO Framework Convention on Tobacco Control • Adopted in 2003 • Entered into force: 19 September 2013 • Parties: 177 • Serbia: 9 May 2006 • Protocol to Eliminate Illicit Trade in Tobacco Products • Signed by 56; Nicaragua ratified (Serbia: not signed yet)

16. Organized Corruption: Flows • Corruption flows: gains from corruption trafficked from developing world and countries in transition to investment companies and banks in the developed world But • Companies from developed world corrupting partners and public administration in the developing world and countries in transition

17. Organized Corruption: Markets • Increasingly becoming organized as it requires many actors to design, effect, launderand legalize/invest • Less distinction between active and passive corruption • Less distinction between public and private sector corruption • Increase due to developmental disparities and investment opportunities

18. United Nations Convention against Corruption (Medina Convention) • Adopted by the GA Resolution 58/4 of 31 October 2003 • Entered into force: 14 December 2005 • Parties: 170 • Serbia: 20 December 2005

19. Geopolitical Configuration of Transnational Organized Criminal Flows and Markets (1) • Most criminal flows go то and most criminal markets locate in the world major economic/demographic and political powers: G8 and BRIC(S) • Most criminal flows eminate from the devloping world But • criminal markets are increasingly global with worldwide geographic spread

20. Geopolitical Configuration of Transnational Organized Criminal Flows and Markets (2) • Increasing global trend of the TOC to gain (and maintain) licit position through merging legal and illegal flows and markets: the legalization of profit • Ownership of enterprises or holding of executive/managerial positions : the control over the profit legalization process • Investments in economic sectors (e.g. entertainment/hotels; construction; waste disposal;) difficult to control • Links with political parties/trade unions • Increased use of e-technology for criminal enterprise

21. Italian Criminal Markets • One of the oldest TOC Mafia but also Camorra and ‘Ndrangheta • Today it is not the control of the territory but the market control • Criminal market annual value: 170 billion EURO or 10% GDP • Drug Trafficking: 7.7 b; Extorsion: 4.7 b; Prostitution 4.6; Counterfeiting 4.5 • Construction; Special Litter Disposal; Restaurants; Hazard Games; Gold exchange

22. East Asia • East Asia, in particular China, will become the most prosperous criminal market both in terms of demand and supply: • Drug trafficking, production, consumption; • Human trafficking/smuggling of migrants • Trafficking in human body parts • Cyber crime • Fraud and corruption • Counterfeiting • Wild life/ivory illicit import

23. Balkans (1) • Origins of OC in the Balkans (profit and opportunity driven crime export and import) • Boom during the 90s Yugoslav conflict and sanctions • Connections among criminal networks, para-military, local leaders and sometimes security services; connections with ex-Yugoslav and foreign OC groups • Link between organized crime and corruption

24. Balkans (2) • Drug trafficking but also cannabis and NPS production • Cigarettes smuggling • Extortion • Smuggling of migrants/human trafficking • Corruption • Small arms trafficking • Money laundering • Counterfeited goods production and trafficking

25. THANK YOU