Yacob Mulugetta

1. Lustrumsymposium Sustainable Solutions: Focus on Africa1-2 November, Deflt University of TechnologyThe Future of Sustainable Energy in Africa Yacob Mulugetta Centre for Environmental Strategy & Research Group on Lifestyles, Values and Environment (RESOLVE) University of Surrey, UK

2. Outline • Sustainability - Energy Context • The African energy picture • What is the desirable future? • Supply side possibilities • Demand side interventions • Enabling mechanisms

3. Reliable and affordable energy supplies are essential for economic development Sustainable energy context Social & economic wellbeing Environmental protection Energy security Energy security is enhanced when indigenous energy or increased energy efficiency reduces dependence on imported energy Enhanced economic activity increases environmental impacts; both local and global. The quality of indigenous energy also determines the type and intensity of pollution

4. The African energy picture

5. World energy demand by Region Source: IEA; WEO

6. African Energy Sector – 3 distinct regions AFREPREN

7. Biomass 120 Hydro Even countries with major endowments of petroleum rely heavily on biomass. Nuclear fuels 100 Gaseous fuels Liquid fuels 80 Coal World average 60 Equivalent to burning just over 1 lb. of wood every day for a year 40 20 0 Togo Benin Gabon Ghana Congo Nigeria Sudan Kenya Namibia Angola Ethiopia Senegal Zambia Tanzania Cameroon DR Congo Zimbabwe Côte d’Ivoire Mozambique South Africa Annual per capita energy consumption by source(GJ per person - 1999) Source: WRI: (2003). "EarthTrends: The Environmental Information Portal." 2003(January 15, 2003). http://earthtrends.wri.org/index.cfm.

9. Household fuel transition: fuel - income IEA, 2002

10. Enterprise Productivity Household Productivity Health Impacts Effects on Education Energy-Poverty Linkages: Micro Level Unreliable Electricity supply No access to modern fuels No access to modern fuels No access to Electricity Firms need back -up generators Women spend up to 3 hours/day gathering fuel High indoor pollution Less time to study Small enterprises cannot afford it Reduced access to education Low growth & employment Productive time and labour sink High rate of child mortality • Systemic Disadvantage • Denial of Capability

11. The Reality from Elsewhere Nearly 1 billion people; generate 4% of global electricity; ¾ of that used by South Africa & countries in North Africa

12. The Energy Gini Jacobson & Kammen, 2005

13. 6. Local Rural Energy NeedsAccess to electricity – bottom 40% (mainly rural) Source: Estache, 2005

14. Guinea's G'bessi Airport, Conakry Between 1999 and 2002, schools in Guinea had a modest pass rate of 30-35%. Since 2003, that has dropped to between 20 and 25%. BBC

15. Summary: the energy picture in Africa • 39 countries – Oil importers • Lion’s share of export earnings (25-60%) • Low access to electricity – (as low as 2% in rural areas) and modern fuels • Heavy reliance on biomass • Low technical resources at all levels • Income is an important enabler and disabler

16. Wherever I have traveled, when men have neither coal nor wood nor turf, they live in miserable hovels and have nothing comfortable about them. But when they have an adequate supply of fuel and the wit to use it wisely they are well supplied with necessaries and live comfortable livesBenjamin Franklin circa 1780

17. The desirable future?

18. The desirable future? • Achievement of MDGs & beyond • Increase per capita energy consumption • Clean energy for local & global environment • Increase the use of local resources & renewables • Technologies & resources • Towards Productive uses/income

19. Paradoxically!!! • Population will double by 2030 • More people living in urban areas • More people seek access to modern energy services • 1/10,000 engineer or scientist • 30,000 PhDs outside Africa • S&T funding less than 1% GDP UNEP, 2004

20. Targets agreed by African Ministers for 2015 World Bank investment estimate for 100% access to electricity by 2030 - $11 billion/year World Bank investment estimate for 48% access to electricity by 2030 - $4 billion/year WB/ECOWAS estimate for all energy services by 2030 – approaches $15 billion/year

21. Supply side possibilities

22. Supply side possibilities • Conventional systems • 70% oil exported • Most associated gas flared (71%) • Can be converted to power using combined power cycles and generate enough to satisfy current West African needs • Processing can be expensive: construction and operation of gas collecting system; transport to treatment plant; remove LPG, and transfer through high pressure pipeline to intended consumers. • Strong legislation will help enormously • Geothermal potential is huge in some parts • Already 10% of Kenya’s electricity comes from Geothermal • Conventional systems will continue to be important, especially in the industrial and urban areas.

23. Supply side possibilities • Renewables • Solar PV and water heating • Biomass – combustion/ gasification/Cogeneration • Charcoal • Small hydro • Wind • Biofuels (large/small scale)

24. Solar PV • Interesting example of PV in Kenya • Kenya – 200,000 households • Private sector driven • Superseded official rural electrification programme • Still issues related to quality control • Largely bought by relatively wealthy • Mobile phone charging

25. Cogeneration • Cogeneration CHP in Mauritius • Successful in sale of power to the grid • Accounts for close to 40% of a 725MW national generation capacity • Excellent government incentives • Potential elsewhere in Africa Afrepren

26. Charcoal • Preferred by urban consumers • 82% of urban households use charcoal • Avg. annual consumption ~150 kg/per person • High calorific value, Requires less attention to cook, Emits less smoke, More economical to transport, Purchased in small (daily) quantities • Little attempt across the continent in sustainable woodfuel harvest • Invest in charcoal production and stove research, and technology transfer (Brazil, Thailand..)

27. Estimated deaths (x 103) from child LRI and adult female COPD 800 600 400 BAU C LRI: Lower respiratory illness COPD: Chronic obstructive pulmonary disease 200 F RC RF 2000 2005 2010 2015 2020 2025 2030 Year The macro health effects of transitions to ….

28. End-use - fossil fuels End-use - sustainable biomass End-use - unsustainable biomass Production - unsustainable biomass Global warming impact (GWI) from production and end-use of common household cooking fuels Production - sustainable biomass Production - fossil fuels 250 200 150 g-C as CO2 per MJ useful energy delivered (100-yr GWP) 100 50 GREET model/Pennise Bertschi et al. Bertschi et al. Smith et. al.; Pennise Source Location (sub-Saharan Africa) (sub-Saharan Africa) Traditional kiln (Brazil) Improved kiln (US) (US) Fuel Kerosene Firewood Charcoal LPG Adapted from Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, ES&T (2003)

29. Residential fuel use in Africa2000-2050 Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)

30. Cumulative GHG emissions (2000-2050) Bailis, Ezzati & Kammen, Science (2005)

31. and 2004 2004 2004 2004 lowest cost option (2004) 2004 2004 Rising energy prices have made charcoal the most economical cooking option Monthly Cooking Cost: Dar es Salaam, Tanzania: 1990 10,000 lowest cost option (1990) 8,000 Monthly Cooking Cost (1994 TSh/month) 6,000 1990 1990 1990 4,000 1990 1990 2,000 0 Charcoal Charcoal Electricity LPG Kerosene (improved) (unimproved) Data Source: Hosier, R.H. and W. Kipondya, Urban household energy use in Tanzania. Energy Policy, 1993. May: p. 454-473. (1990); Rebecca Ghanadan, PhD Candidate, Energy and Resources Group, University of California Berkeley (2004)

32. Biofuels - biodiesel • Well proven at small scale but still much uncertainty about large scale trials being initiated in various countries • At large scale, requires significant applied R&D to establishment of new agricultural system • High costs associated with technology transfer & adaptation • Possible competition for land between biodiesel feedstock and food crops or land • Environmental impacts not clear • Less important in small-scale initiative

33. Ethiopia: 99.5% investment Energy use in a typical eastern and southern African country Large-scale technologies mainly used by the non-poor Large-scale technologies Small-scale Technologies and RETs Small-scale Technologies and RETs mainly used by the poor Energy investment in a typical eastern and southern African country Ethiopia: 92% Primary energy

34. Demand side interventions

35. Demand side interventions • Improved cookstoves • Energy efficiency • government, Eskom and Osram - 500 million energy-saving compact fluorescent light bulbs (CFLs) to households – reduce peak demand by 100 MW • Smart design (better awareness about energy management) - Wahel • Rural electrification – helps rural development • Social development goals • Retaining teachers and health practitioners • Productive uses of energy • Investment in public transport • Encourage cycling

36. Enabling mechanisms

37. Enabling mechanisms • Policies – Guy de Maupassant analogy • Policy in crisis or a crisis of policy • Recognising the importance of energy at sectoral levels - Cross-sectoral partnership • R&D – centres of excellence and HE - endogenous • Raising the voice of the poor • Financing and technology transfer • Governance: NEPAD/Maputo Declaration/ FEMA • ‘Nicolai do something’: • Partnership between actors and institutions

38. Thank You!