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Analysis of Current Teacher Recruitment Trends and Strategies

Explore recent Teacher Supply Model targets, recruitment patterns, Subject Knowledge Enhancement utilization, and various routes into teaching. Gain insights into ITT recruitment success rates, turnover rates, retention strategies, and the impact of different training programs on teacher supply. Stay informed about the current stock of teachers, wastage rates, NQT service years, and the effectiveness of ITT routes feeding NQTs into state schools.

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Analysis of Current Teacher Recruitment Trends and Strategies

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  1. ITT and SKE RecruitmentMark Crowleymark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk May 2019

  2. Objectives • Review recent TSM targets and subsequent ITT recruitment • Consider patterns in recruitment • Review Subject Knowledge Enhancement (SKE) usage

  3. Routes into Teaching – coverage for this presentation • University-led Postgraduate (PGCE/PGDE) • School-centred ITT (SCITT) • School Direct (salaried) • School Direct (tuition fee) • Teach First (Leadership) • Postgraduate Teaching Apprenticeships • Undergraduate degrees (Integral QTS) • Undergraduate opt-in degree (Final year) Now Teach Transition to Teach Troops into Teaching Researchers in Schools (RiS) Assessment Only Future Teaching Scholars Premier Pathways HMC Teacher Training PCET L5 Dip in Ed & Training EYITT Teacher Training routes

  4. Teacher Supply Model https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2018-to-2019 TSM and initial teacher training allocations:2019-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

  5. Teacher Supply Model TSM 2019-20 Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

  6. TSM – Turnover rates & Retention TSM 2019-20 Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates NQT Years of service 7 Years Number of teachers Year qualified https://department-for-education.shinyapps.io/turnover-and-retention-grids/

  7. TSM – Turnover rates & Retention TSM 2019-20 Secondary This does not represent 1200-1400 Physics NQTs. Instead, the number of NQTs teaching Physics (KS3-5) regardless of their ITT specialism. Physics https://department-for-education.shinyapps.io/turnover-and-retention-grids/

  8. Teacher Supply Model TSM 2019-20 Net growth by comparing entrants versus leavers Teaching hours per subject and DfE policies (EBacc) Current stock of teachers and their wastage rates Growth of pupil populationand additionalteachers needed Success of ITT routes feeding NQTs into state schools 87% PG Routes into Physics assumed to be 84% 82% 36% Model expects 53% of entrants will be NQTs 47% 12% 76% 77% 71% 41% ITT target SCITT SD HEI CompletionandEmployment https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

  9. 100% 100% 90% 90% 80% 80% 70% 70% 60% 60% 50% 50% 40% 40% 30% 30% 20% 20% 10% 10% 0% 0% TSM: Attrition rates Physics CompletionandEmployment Attrition rates have changed with each version of the TSM. The current version is based on the four years up to 2015/16 69% 65% 81% 82% 87% 60% 74% 79% 79% HEI School Direct SCITT https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

  10. Attrition rates TSM 2019-20 • Historic completion and employment rates are applied to the NQT need in order back-calculate the ITT target: Subject Target Attrition rates NQTs Entrants 90% 80% 1610 855 1190 Biology 88% 78% 1480 790 1150 Chemistry 83% 74% 1460 775 1265 Physics CompletionandEmployment https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/tsm-and-initial-teacher-training-allocations-2019-to-2020

  11. 91% 80% 70% 71% 68% 65% Recruitment vs Targets • Physics 1400 Target 1265 1200 1000 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 800 Number of trainees 600 47% 400 200 0 2019-20 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  12. 110% 98% 132% 94% 82% 117% Recruitment vs Targets • Chemistry 1400 Target 1152 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 1200 1000 79% 800 Number of trainees 600 400 200 0 2019-20 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  13. 115% 88% 85% 101% 84% 96% Recruitment vs Targets • Biology 153% 1400 Target 1192 1200 EBITT/SD HEI/SCITT 1000 800 Number of trainees 600 400 200 0 2019-20 2009-10 2010-11 2011-12 2012-13 2013-14 2014-15 2015-16 2016-17 2017-18 2018-19 https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  14. Shortfall in census TSM 2018-19 • Has the shortfall in the 2018-19 TSM target by Physics and Chemistry been offset by massive gains in Biology? Consider if the NQT need is still being met : Census Target NQTs Subject Attrition rates Consider the impact of hitting target but not the modelled 35%:33%:32% • Likely • Model 90% 80% 850 1310 1815 1190 Biology 88% 78% 790 590 1050 830 Chemistry 83% 74% 780 350 575 1265 Physics Likely NQT 2250 :Model 2420 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teacher-supply-model-2017-to-2018

  15. ITT Census - Science ratio 2010-11 Physics Biology Chemistry DfE did not publish data for https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  16. ITT Census - Science ratio 2011-12 Physics Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  17. ITT Census - Science ratio 2012-13 Physics Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  18. ITT Census - Science ratio 2013-14 Physics Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  19. ITT Census - Science ratio 2014-15 Physics Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  20. ITT Census - Science ratio 2015-16 Physics Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  21. ITT Census - Science ratio 2016-17 Physics Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  22. ITT Census - Science ratio 2017-18 Physics Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  23. ITT Census - Science ratio 2018-19 Physics Biology What is the likely ratio of science numbers for 2019-20 from UCAS data? Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  24. Recruitment Placed+ Conditional

  25. Recruitment Placed+ Conditional • Generic Expect a drop off with conditions not being met 1000 900 800 Conditional 700 600 Number of applicants 500 Holding offer 400 Placed 300 200 100 0 Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May Jun Jul Aug Sep End of cycle https://www.ucas.com/corporate/data-and-analysis/ucas-teacher-training-releases

  26. Recruitment 2015-19 Placed+ Conditional • Biology Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census 2000 1800 2017-18 Number of applicants 1600 1400 2015-16 1200 UCAS cycles have started as early as 9th Oct and as late as 26th Oct 1000 2016-17 2018-19 800 Change from publication date into day within recruitment cycle. 600 400 200 UCAS data drop

  27. Recruitment 2015-19 Placed+ Conditional • Biology 2000 Conditional Firm 1800 2017-18 Placed Day 190 Number of applicants 1600 • 4th May 16 • 90 • 835 1400 2015-16 • 26th April 17 • 55 • 520 1200 1000 *4th May 18 • 75 • 825 2016-17 2018-19 800 17th April 19 • 40 • 875 600 400 200 Days since UCAS opened 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

  28. Recruitment 2015-19 Placed+ Conditional • Chemistry Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census 1200 Number of applicants 2015-16 1000 2016-17 2017-18 800 600 400 2018-19 200 0 UCAS data drop

  29. Recruitment 2015-19 Placed+ Conditional • Chemistry 1200 Conditional Firm Placed Day 190 Number of applicants 2015-16 1000 • 4th May 16 • 60 • 560 2016-17 2017-18 800 • 26th April 17 • 55 • 400 600 *4th May 18 • 20 • 350 17th April 19 • 15 • 360 400 2018-19 200 Days since UCAS opened 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

  30. EoC Recruitment 2015-19 • Physics Nov Dec Jan Feb Mar Apr May June July Aug Sept Census 1000 900 Number of applicants 2015-16 800 2016-17 700 600 2017-18 500 400 300 2018-19 200 100 0 UCAS data drop

  31. Recruitment 2015-19 • Physics 1000 Conditional Firm 900 Placed Day 190 Number of applicants Number of applicants 2015-16 800 • 4th May 16 • 40 • 395 2016-17 700 • 26th April 17 • 20 • 310 600 2017-18 500 *4th May 18 • 15 • 260 400 17th April 19 • 10 • 225 300 2018-19 200 100 Days since UCAS opened 0 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

  32. 120 100 80 60 40 20 0 Recruitment 2015-19 • Physics 1000 HEI 900 Number of applicants Number of applicants 800 700 SD (fee) 600 500 SCITT 400 300 2018-19 200 100 Days since UCAS opened 0 SD (sal) 0 30 60 90 120 150 180 210 240 270 300 330 360 Census

  33. ITT Census - Science ratio 2018-19 Physics Biology What is the likely ratio of science numbers for 2019-20 from UCAS data? Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  34. ITT Census - Science ratio 2019-20 Physics *Based on current UCAS data Are particular ITT routes more successful than others at recruitment? Biology Chemistry https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  35. ITT Census – numbers by route Physics 500 400 300 Number in Nov census 200 100 0 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  36. ITT Census – proportions by route UCAS for 2019-20 currently shows approximately: HEI 46% SCITT 21% SD Fee 30% SD Sal 2% Physics 60% 50% 40% 30% Proportion in Nov census 20% 10% 0% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  37. ITT Census – number by route Biology 1000 800 600 Number in Nov census 400 200 0 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  38. ITT Census – proportions by route UCAS for 2019-20 currently shows approximately: HEI 53% SCITT 14% SD Fee 31% SD Sal 2% Biology 60% 50% 40% 30% Proportion in Nov census 20% 10% 0% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  39. ITT Census – numbers by route Chemistry 600 500 400 300 Number in Nov census 200 100 0 HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  40. ITT Census – proportions by route UCAS for 2019-20 currently shows approximately: HEI 49% SCITT 17% SD Fee 32% SD Sal 3% Chemistry 60% 50% 40% 30% Proportion in Nov census 20% 10% 0% HEI SCITT SD (Fee) SD (Sal) Teach First https://www.gov.uk/government/collections/statistics-teacher-training

  41. Subject Knowledge Enhancement April 2018

  42. SKE – recent guide • 10. SKE funding is … available for courses of 8 weeks … for those applying to PE with EBacc ITT courses. • 20. PG ITT courses… the completion of a SKE course must be a specific condition of the conditional ITT offer. • 21. Teach First candidates. Teach First participants are eligible for SKE funding, providing they meet the criteria set by Teach First. • 22.UG courses. Programme and bursary funding is available for eligible participants on designated UG courses in secondary maths and physics that lead to QTS (including opt-in).

  43. SKE - courses https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4 TSM and initial teacher training allocations:2019-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

  44. SKE Directory • Rather than published as an excel spreadsheet, provided by the DfE as a webpage. https://www.gov.uk/government/publications/subject-knowledge-enhancement-course-directory/subject-knowledge-enhancement-ske-course-directory

  45. Teachers Analysis Compendium https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4 TSM and initial teacher training allocations:2019-2020 https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

  46. SKE uptake – overall figures ITT 2017-18 • Data yet to be released for SKE 2017-18 – Paul Steele from DfE has responded to recent email to agree to provide this shortly. Subject SKE 16-17 ITT 17-18 SKE/ITT 1025 33% 343 Biology 875 37% 327 Chemistry 46% 332 715 Physics • https://www.gov.uk/government/statistics/teachers-analysis-compendium-4

  47. SKE uptake – by length of course 66% 400 55% 60% 350 300 250 Short 8-12 200 Number of partticipants 150 Med 16-20 100 Long 24+ 50 0 Biology Chemistry Physics

  48. Marketing SKE • The Department (for Education) has increased marketing investment; intensified marketing activities; introduced more frequent bursts of TV advertising; and added new marketing channels. • TV & Video, Social Media and paid Search have been the strongest drivers of website sessions in the latest period; with paid Search and Social Media also being the most cost-effective marketing drivers.

  49. Any questions? • Mark Crowley • Senior Lecturer in Science Education • Nottingham Trent University • mark.crowley@ntu.ac.uk • +(44) 115 848 8064 Remember to register with the Free National Vacancy Service for teachers and schools: www.teachvac.co.uk http://www4.ntu.ac.uk/edu/teacher_training/

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