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Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects

Inside. Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects Analysis of NEDO Inside Products Survey Sayaka Shishido , M asaru Yamashita, Yoshiko Yurugi and Mitsuru Takeshita Evaluation Department. New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization.

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Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects

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  1. Inside Study to Evaluate the Cost-effectiveness of NEDO Projects Analysis of NEDO Inside Products Survey Sayaka Shishido,Masaru Yamashita, Yoshiko Yurugiand Mitsuru Takeshita Evaluation Department New Energy and Industrial Technology Development Organization

  2. Introduction to NEDO Inside Products NEDO inside products are defined as products that incorporate core technologies developed through NEDO project results. Pioneer in market creation ●Taking the lead in the creation of new markets R&D N E D O Demonstration projects Strengthening global competitiveness ●Achieving competitive advantages through world-leading technologies ●Supporting technological innovation across a wide range of industries through basic technology development Improving technology in a wide range of sectors Government funding ●Addressing social issues through new technology development Addressing social issues Management, evaluation and selectionby NEDO

  3. Overview of NEDO Inside Product Research Purpose: Estimate economic effect and social benefits of NEDO projects Target: *Most recent annual sales: More than $1.25 billion *Sales between $250 million and $1.25billion *Low sales, but significant social benefit Summary of economic effect and social benefit: ① Economic effect: Project budget, most recent annual sales, accumulated sales over the past five years, sales forecast between FY2011–FY2020 ② Social benefit: CO2 reduction effect, ripple effects, employment growth, etc.

  4. Data basis: Questionnaire completed by companies (Tentatively NEDO’s contributing rate is 100%.) Official data: ① Economic organizations ② Public institutions, private research institutes ③ In cases of insufficient data, supplemental estimates were calculated using the data above Sales calculations: 1) Average cost of project(FY): (total cost for a project implementation period) (project period) 2)Most recent FY sales (FY2010): (aggregate sales over the past five years for the target product) (five years) or (single year sales amounts for products with only single year sales estimates) 3)Total future sales forecast： cumulative sales from FY2011–FY2020 based on FY2020 sales forecasts

  5. Examples of Technological Innovations that Address Environmental and Energy Issues NEDOインサイド製品が、我が国の環境・エネルギー問題解決に貢献！ Energy saving effect (crude oil equivalent) 35 billion gallons/10 years (FY2011–FY2020) 440 mega tons CO2/10 years (FY2011–FY2020) Eco-friendly cement Waste power generation Solar power Wind power Hybrid shovels CFC reduction technology Residential fuel cells Low-emission diesel cars Residential heat pumps Lithium-ion batteries for EVs and PHEVs High-efficiency industrial furnaces Thermal storage air-conditioning systems Industrial heat pumps High-speed copy machines Thermal insulation Sulfur-free light oil Water treatment plants

  6. Sales Performance and Forecasts for NEDO Inside Products *$1=80yen pioneer in market creation Strengthening global competitiveness Improving technology across a wide range of sectors

  7. Cost Effectiveness & Employment Growth Effect ・Sales forecast (FY2011–FY2020): $825 billion Cost effectiveness: ○ NEDO’s budget for 50 products is about $7.2 billion. ○Corporate income tax is about$12.3 billion. ＝ $825 billion X 3.66% (pretax profit rate*) X 40.69% (effective corporate income tax rate) * Based on the Ministry of Finance’s Business and Investment Survey of IncorporatedEnterprises. Employment effect:Employment growth between 107,000 and 177,000 per year ○ $49 billion (FY2010 sales) X 13.38%* (ratio of personnel expenses to sales) ÷ $64,000 (average employee compensation) = 107,000 employees in FY2011 ○ $825 billion (FY2011–FY2020 sales) X 13.38% (ratio of personnel expenses to sales) ÷ $64,000 (average employee compensation) = 1.77 million employees between FY2011-FY2020 * Ratio of personnel expenses to sales is based on the Ministry of Finance’s Business and Investment Survey of Incorporated Enterprises and average employee compensation is based on the National Tax Agency’s Pay for Private-sector Employees Survey. CO2 reduction effect:12 products contribute to the reduction of CO2 emissions 　　⇒　CO2 reduction effect is 440 megatons (FY2012–FY2020) Energy saving effect (crude oil equivalent) is 35 billion gallons /10 years (FY2011–FY2020)

  8. Pioneer in Market Creation Residential heat pump hot water supply system • Building up basic knowledge was the starting point for developing energy-saving technologies • Identifying new uses for heat pumps and development of multi-purpose practical applications, including compact and cold climate heat pumps. FY1984–FY2007$193 million Creation of markets through NEDO projects Overview: ・NEDO developed basic heat pump technologies from 1984, like mechanisms for whole heat pump system not only CO2 use. ・Private companies developed a residential-use heat pump. NEDO support to develop multi-purpose heat pumps, including high-efficiency, compact and cold climate heat pumps. Residential heat pump system Forecast for heat pump market in Japan ・The introduction of heat pumps has accelerated since FY2007 due to the increase of all-electric homes and price reductions ・The heat pumps are designed for residential use as well as industrial use. 2020 Current status Derivative effect Research on high-efficiency compressors and high-efficiency power recovery equipment Project Knowledge sharing Environmental effect • Total CO₂ reductions are estimated to be 42 mega tons (FY2011–2020 )if total heat pump sales reach 10 million by FY2020. Research on air heat exchanger Practical use of heat pump systems NEDO Project Research on compact high-performance gas coolers Capital investment

  9. Strengthening Global Competitiveness Die Bonding Film • Accelerating development of practical application through collaborative R&D of mechanisms between industry and academia. • Basic technology makes possible synthesis of materials suitable for requisite properties FY2001–FY2007: $75million Contributed to enhancing Japan’s competitiveness in semiconductor materials field ・Achievement of reduced thickness, and improved flexibility and adhesiveness simultaneously bycontrolling polymer structures at nano levels. ・Contributed to size reductions and improved functionality of latest electronic devices such as smartphones, tablets, etc. Overview: Presence of Japanese companies: Sales: $127 million/year; greater than 50% market share; achieved de facto standardization Products using die bonding film HS Series Example（Stacked MCP） Effects Environment: Energy-saving as SSD’s consume lower amounts of electricity than HDD’s. Film properties: Ultra-thin film (10 μm) with strong bonding properties (peeling strength 1.0 kN/m between 60-90°angles) Technology: Streamlined manufacturing processes （multiple processes streamlined to one bonding film process only) 2020 Current status NEDO projects Technology development: Development of phase separation control and analysis technology for power inverters and LED light sealants.

  10. Improving Technology in a Wide Range of Areas engine air bag mirror navigation system tire Market growth 99 billion yen 38 billion yen Micro Electro Mechanical Systems (MEMS) Japan is a global leader in micro machining technology as a result of R&D spanning over 20 years . • Accumulation of basic technologies • Development of multi-purpose applications through crossover activities among different fields FY1991–FY2012: $319 million Achievement of high-performance, lightweight devices through micro machining technology Overview: ・R&D on MEMS started in the late 1980’s. Japan launched a large-scale ten year national project in 1991 to build a technological base for MEMS. ・R&D has been accelerated recently to develop applications in multiple fields. What is MEMS? MEMS is a micro-mechatronics systems using semiconductor processing consisting of miniaturized sensors, actuators, electronic circuits integrated onto chips. Development of multi-purpose uses Cars Electronic devices Manufacturing 2020 Current status NEDO projects

  11. Addressing Social Issues High-efficiency Furnaces NEDO supports the dissemination and promotion of eco-friendly industrial furnaces FY1993-FY1999: $102 million Development of eco-friendly industrial furnaces Overview: ・Achievement of more than 30% energy saving, reductions in NOx and size ・Adopted by steel and aluminum industrials; accounted for more than 1/3 of industrial furnace market in 2005 ・Project consortium composed of 13 companies from the same industry ・Development of multi-purpose technologies using simulations and databases; heat recovery has nearly reached theoretical limits. ・Field tests conducted at 167 locations contributing to market growth. フィールドテスト事業で導入加速 Furnace cross-section Environmental effect Current status 2020 CO2reduction effect: 16 million t-CO2/10 years NEDO projects

  12. NEDO Inside Product Stars!★ Pioneer in market creation Strengthening global competitiveness Addressing social issues Improving technology 1. Solar power Wind power ・new energy 　 ・1981 2. Gas turbines ・high-efficiency ・1980 4. Nano-ion products ・healthy living, eco-friendly ・2001 3. Residential heat pump system ・heat pumps ・1984 ★ ★★ ★ ★★ ★ ★★ ★ ★★ 5.Reduction of CFCs ・address global warming ・1996 7. High density devices (HDD) ・new markets ・1995 6. Furnaces ・energy saving ・1993 9. Die bonding films ・streamlining ・2001 8. Blue-ray ・new media ・1998 ★★ ★★ ★★ ★ ★ 11. Fine ceramics ・new materials 　　・1981 14.Water supply(MBR,UASB) global business 　・1997 10. Residential fuel cells ・cogeneration ・1992 13. EV batteries ・load leveling ・1992 12. MEMS ・multi-purpose 　・1991 ★ ★★ ★★ ★ ★★ ★ ★★

  13. Future outlook Challenges ・More than half of NEDO inside products are viewed as ”addressing social issues” and should not be evaluated in terms of economic profitability only. →　In particular, as NEDO’s mission is to address energy and global environmental problem, we need to carefully consider in-depth evaluation methods for these products. ・As the number of materials and components in the supply chain increases, it become more difficult to calculate the value of each unit. ・NEDO not only supports individual companies, but also aims to improve Japan’s technological strength, therefore we should conduct evaluations in terms of value-added to Japan’s technology base. ・We should implement evaluation methods based not only economical viability and energy efficiency but also include benchmarks such as reductions in environmental burdens (e.g., hazardous materials), and improvements in user-friendliness, quality of life, levels of happiness, etc. ・Basic and infrastructure technology development is expected to become broader and we are striving to develop evaluation methods that are compatible with such change. Currently, we are examining interview methods related to combustion and polymer chemistry.

  14. Thank you!

  15. （以下、参考）

  16. 「NEDOインサイド製品」　50製品リスト 16

  17. 将来累積売上予測の計算方法

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