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INDIA STORY: FUNDAMENTALS DRIVEN VALUE CREATION “ Manufacturing leads the charge” April 23, 2007

Value Creators Report India Supplement. INDIA STORY: FUNDAMENTALS DRIVEN VALUE CREATION “ Manufacturing leads the charge” April 23, 2007. PREFACE.

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INDIA STORY: FUNDAMENTALS DRIVEN VALUE CREATION “ Manufacturing leads the charge” April 23, 2007

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  1. Value Creators Report India Supplement INDIA STORY: FUNDAMENTALS DRIVEN VALUE CREATION“Manufacturing leads the charge”April 23, 2007

  2. PREFACE • This document has been prepared as a supplement to BCG’s global value creators report 2006 (“Spotlight on Growth”) and provides further insights into the value creation by Indian companies over and above what is highlighted in the global report. • The methodology for analyzing a larger set of Indian companies is the same as that for the global set. Please refer to the section on methodology for a detailed explanation on TSR decomposition analysis and selection of sample. • Total shareholder returns (TSR) analysis for a sample of Indian companies has been conducted for the period Apr ’02 – Mar ’07 and top performers have been identified. In order to make a like-to-like comparison of Indian companies with relevant international set, Apr ‘01 – Mar ‘06 financials of Indian companies are used. Further, published financials of Indian companies as on Mar ’06 are used to decompose the share holder returns from 01-06 into sub-components (growth, profitability, multiple change, etc).

  3. AGENDA • The remarkable Indian value creation story • Decomposing the value creation of Indian companies • Overall winners • TSR Decomposition Methodology • Contacts • Appendix: Industry-wise top value creators

  4. INDIAN STOCK MARKETS HAVE TAKEN OFF SINCE 2003Mid Cap Stocks Have Led The Rally CAGR 74% 60% 50% 4% -3% -6% Source: Capitalline

  5. INDIAN MARKETS HAVE OUTPERFORMED MANY GLOBAL INDICES 2002-07 returns of select global indices 5 year performance (%) Russia 37% 35% Poland 26% 23% Spain 22% 24% India 29% 12% China 30% 194% Country 3 yr 1 yr Argentina 21% 17% S. Africa 37% 34% USA 12% 21% Source: Capitaline, Factiva (Tradeline), Yahoo Finance, BCG Analysis

  6. AGENDA • The remarkable Indian value creation story • Decomposing the value creation of Indian companies • Overall winners • TSR Decomposition Methodology • Contacts • Appendix: Industry-wise top value creators

  7. ~20 TIMES SHAREHOLDER RETURN IN INDIA COMPARED TO GLOBAL AVERAGE Shareholder return % X 17-20 Source: Capitaline, Factiva (Tradeline), Yahoo Finance, BCG Analysis

  8. PROFITABLE GROWTH AND MULTIPLE RE-RATING PRIMARY LEVERS OF HIGHER TSR IN INDIAN SAMPLENo Dip In Profitability Despite Much Higher Growth TSR decomposition of overall sample (2001-06) India (N=200) Global Sample (N=1056) Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Factiva (Tradeline), Yahoo Finance, BCG Analysis

  9. TOP DECILE RELIED ON FUNDAMENTAL BUSINESS DRIVERSAND DEBT REDUCTIONSales Growth 50% Faster, Margin improvement at Above 10% pa TSR decomposition of overall sample Overall Sample Top Decile (n=20) Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, BCG Analysis

  10. AGENDA • The remarkable Indian value creation story • Decomposing the value creation of Indian companies • Industry sectors • Ownership types • Large caps Vs mid caps • Overall winners • TSR Decomposition Methodology • Contacts • Appendix: Industry-wise top value creators

  11. OLD ECONOMY HAS DOMINATED VALUE CREATION (I)Four Industries Account For ~70% Of Top Performers Industry Number of companies in top 20 ’01-’06 ’02-’07 Large cap Mid cap Large cap Mid cap • Engineering & Construction • Industrial Manufacturing • Materials & Commodities • Automotive & Supply • Telecom • Transportation & Logistics • Chemicals & Plastics • Oil & Gas • Pharma, Biotech & Healthcare • IT • FMCG, Retail & Durables • Others • Total • 4 • 6 • 4 • 2 • - • - • 1 • - • 1 • - • - • 2 • 20 • 2 • 1 • 3 • 5 • - • - • 1 • - • 3 • - • - • 5 • 20 • 3 • 3 • 5 • - • 1 • - • 2 • - • 1 • - • 3 • 2 • 20 • 8 • 3 • 5 • - • - • - • 2 • - • 1 • - • - • 1 • 20

  12. OLD ECONOMY HAS DOMINATED VALUE CREATION (II) TSR (%) ’01-’06 Industry(1) TSR (%) ’02-’07(1) • 64% • 67% • 65% • 47% • 54% • 63% • 62% • 43% • 33% • 23% • 20% • 1. Engineering & Construction • 2. Industrial Manufacturing • 3. Materials & Commodities • 4. Telecom • 5. Chemicals & Plastics • 6. Automotive & Supply • 7. Transportation & Logistics • 8. Oil & Gas • 9. Pharmaceuticals, Biotech & Healthcare • 10. IT • 11. FMCG, Retail & Durables • 81% • 72% • 57% • 51% • 47% • 46% • 43% • 34% • 28% • 26% • 18% • 10 Large Cap and 15 Mid Cap companies classified as ‘Others not included’ • Source: Capitaline, BCG analysis

  13. OLD ECONOMY HAS DOMINATED VALUE CREATION (III) 5 year TSR and 2006 market cap of top value creating industry segments Engineering & Construction (109) Industrial Manufacturing (137) Materials & Commodities (248)    Telecom (148) Chemicals & Plastics (50) Automotive & Supply (116)  Transport & Logistics (19) Oil & Gas (231) Pharma, Biotech & Healthcare (95) IT (186) FMCG, Retail & Durables (97) 2007 Market Cap (‘000 Cr) (XX) – Total Value Created (‘000 Cr)(1) (1)Total Value Created = Change in total market cap + Total dividend paid out iSource: Capitaline, BCG Analysis

  14. TOP TSR INDUSTRIES SHOWED SUBSTANTIAL PROFITABILITY IMPROVEMENT SUPPLEMENTING ABOVE AVERAGE GROWTH Value creation = Fundamental value + Valuation multiple + Cash Flow attribution TSR % Revenue % EBITDA % Multiple % MV / EV % Share change % Dividend yield % Allocation term Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  15. INDUSTRIAL MANUFACTURINGStrong Fundamentals Backed By Multiple Re-rating TSR decomposition of Industrial Manufacturing Overall Industrial Manufacturing (India) Machinery & Construction (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 4% 0% -8% 0% -2% 1% -1% -6% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth, BCG Analysis

  16. MATERIALS & COMMODITIESTop Performer Driven Purely By Fundamentals TSR decomposition of Materials & Commodities Overall Materials & Commodities (India) Materials & Mining (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 8% 5% -2% 6% -2% 4% 0% 19% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  17. ENGINEERING AND CONSTRUCTIONRiding the Infrastructure and Real Estate Wave TSR decomposition of Engineering & Construction Overall Engineering & Construction (India) Machinery & Construction (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 4% 0% -8% 0% -2% 1% -1% -6% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  18. AUTOMOTIVE AND SUPPLYBeating the World’s Best on Sales Growth and Profitability Improvement TSR decomposition of Automotive and Supply industry Overall Automotive & supply (India) Automotive & supply (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 4% -1% 5% 1% -3% 3% 0% 9% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  19. TRANSPORTATION & LOGISTICSStrong Performance Driven by Change In Expectations and Profitability Improvement TSR decomposition of Transportation & Logistics Overall Transportation & Logistics (India) Transportation & Logistics (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 6% 1% 0% 4% 0% 1% 0% 12% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  20. CHEMICALS & PLASTICSAverage, Balanced Fundamental Performance Combined with Capital Structure Changes TSR decomposition of Chemicals & Plastics Overall Chemicals & Plastics (India) Chemicals (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 8% -2% -1% 3% -1% 3% -1% 9% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  21. TELECOMWeak Fundamental Performance, TSR Driven by Significant Multiple Re-rating TSR decomposition of Telecom Overall Telecom (India) Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  22. OIL & GASBroadly Representative of Overall Market, Slightly Slower Revenue Growth TSR decomposition of Oil & Gas Overall Oil & Gas (India) Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  23. PHARMACEUTICALS, BIOTECH & HEALTHCAREBroadly Representative of Overall Market, Slower Growth Than Global Top 10 TSR decomposition of Pharmaceuticals, Biotech & Healthcare Overall Pharma, Biotech & HC (India) Pharma & Biotech (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 8% 2% -12% 0% -1% 1% 0% -2% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  24. ITStrong Revenue Growth but Margin Erosion and Downward Multiple Re-rating TSR decomposition of IT Overall IT (India) Technology (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 4% 0% -8% 0% -2% 1% -1% -6% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  25. FMCG, RETAIL & DURABLESWeak Performance Across Parameters, Global Top 10 Outperformed Indian Sample TSR decomposition of FMCG, Retail & Durables Overall FMCG & Durables (India) Consumer Goods (Global top 10) Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors Global Avg 4% 1% -2% 0% 0% 3% -1% 5% % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG report – Spotlight on Growth,BCG Analysis

  26. AGENDA • The remarkable Indian value creation story • Decomposing the value creation of Indian companies • Industry sectors • Ownership types • Large caps Vs mid caps • Overall winners • TSR Decomposition Methodology • Contacts • Appendix: Industry-wise top value creators

  27. INDIAN COMPANIES HAVE OUTPERFORMED MNC’s PSUs outperformed private sector in FY2001-06 TSR by ownership type (2002-07 and 2001-06) (2) (1) PSU (1) Pvt PSU (2) Pvt (3) MNC (3) MNC • PSU’s - N=21 for 2001-06 and N=20 for 2002-07 • Pvt - N = 157 for 2001-06 and N=151 for 2002-07 • MNC’s - N=21 for 2001-06 and N=19 for 2002-07 • Source: BCG Analysis

  28. PSU’s HAVE OUTPERFORMED MNC’s AND PRIVATE SECTOR2001-2006 PSU Private Sector MNC Contributing factors Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  29. PSU TSR DRIVEN BY MULTIPLE CHANGE AND CASH FLOW EFFECTS Fundamental Performance Key Drivers Of Private Sector And MNC TSR TSR composition of PSUs v/s Private sector v/s MNCs % of TSR • Cash flow effect (debt, dividend, shares) • Expectations (multiple) • Business fundamentals (sales, margin) 5-year TSR (’01-’06) 56% 37% 21% No. of companies in sample 21 158 21 Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  30. 72% OF TOTAL VALUE CREATED COMES FROM PRIVATE COMPANIES 5 year TSR and 2007 market cap of MNCs, PSUs and Private companies %TSR PSU (397) Pvt Cos. (1228) MNC (76) 2007 Market Cap (‘000 Cr) (XX) – Total Value Created (‘000 Cr)(1) (1)Total Value Created = Change in total market cap + Total dividend paid out iSource: Capitaline, BCG Analysis

  31. AGENDA • The remarkable Indian value creation story • Decomposing the value creation of Indian companies • Industry sectors • Ownership types • Large caps Vs mid caps • Overall winners • TSR Decomposition Methodology • Contacts • Appendix: Industry-wise top value creators

  32. MID CAPS DELIVERED HIGHER TSR THAN LARGE CAPS‘02- ‘07 and ‘01- ‘06 Absolute TSR ( 2002-07) TSR of Top 20 ( 2002-07) (1) Absolute TSR (2001-06) TSR of Top 20 ( 2001-06) (2) • Large Caps N=76, Min-Cap N=115 • Large Caps N=68, Mid-Cap N=132 • Source: BCG Analysis

  33. MID-CAPS TOOK A PROFITABILITY DIP AND RELIED MORE ON MULTIPLE RE-RATING2001-06 TSR decomposition of overall sample Large Cap ( Market Cap > $ 1 bn) Mid Cap ( Market Cap < $ 1 bn) Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  34. LARGE CAP TSR DRIVEN MORE BY FUNDAMENTAL PERFORMANCEMultiple Change More Important In Mid-caps TSR composition of large caps v/s mid-caps (2001-06) % of TSR • Cash flow effect (debt, dividend, shares) • Expectations (multiple) • Business fundamentals (sales, margin) 5-year TSR (’01-’06) 37% 51% No. of companies in sample 68 132 Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  35. TOPPERS IN LARGE CAP RELIED EVEN MORE ON FUNDAMENTALS, LESS ON MULTIPLE CHANGE TSR decomposition of overall sample (2001-06) Large Cap (n=68) Large Cap Top 20 (n=20) Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  36. TOPPERS IN MID CAP RELIED EVEN MORE ON MULTIPLE CHANGE TSR decomposition of overall sample (2001-06) Mid Cap (n=132) Mid Cap Top 20 (n=20) Contributing factors Contributing factors % contribution % contribution Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  37. FOR THE BEST PERFORMING LARGE CAP COS, PROFITABILITY AND TOP-LINE GROWTH ARE KEY DRIVERS OF VALUE2001-06 Value creation = Fundamental value + Valuation multiple + Cash Flow attribution TSR % Revenue % EBITDA % Multiple % MV / EV % Share change % Dividend yield % Allocation term Note: Financials as on Mar 06 Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  38. FOR THE BEST PERFORMING MID CAP COS, MULTIPLE CHANGE IS A MAJOR DRIVER OF VALUE2001-06 Value creation = Fundamental value + Valuation multiple + Cash Flow attribution TSR % Revenue % EBITDA % Multiple % MV / EV % Share change % Dividend yield % Allocation term Note: Financials as on Mar 06 Source: Capitaline, Company Financials 01-06, BCG Analysis

  39. 86% OF TOTAL VALUE CREATED COMES FROM LARGE CAP SEGMENT 5 year TSR and 2007 market cap of large and small cap segments Mid Cap (237) Large Cap (1463) 2007 Market Cap (‘000 Cr) (XX) – Total Value Created (‘000 Cr)(1) (1)Total Value Created = Change in total market cap + Total dividend paid out iSource: Capitaline, BCG Analysis

  40. AGENDA • The remarkable Indian value creation story • Decomposing the value creation of Indian companies • Overall winners • TSR Decomposition Methodology • Contacts • Appendix: Industry-wise top value creators

  41. 7 INDIAN COMPANIES IN GLOBAL TOP 10 VALUE CREATORS IN THEIR RESPECTIVE SECTORS Company Sector TSR • Larsen & Toubro • Bajaj Auto • Bharat Heavy Electricals • Mahindra & Mahindra • Tata Motors • Hero Honda Motors • Indian Hotels • Engineering & Construction • Automotive & Supply • Engineering & Construction • Automotive & Supply • Automotive & Supply • Automotive & Supply • Travel & Tourism • 70% • 57% • 56% • 52% • 50% • 45% • 36% 1 2 3 4 5 6 7

  42. TOP 20 TSR COMPANIES IN LARGE CAP SEGMENTSample of 76 companies Company Industry Market Cap(Rs. cr) Mar 07 TSR (02-07) • Unitech • JSW Steel • Aban Offshore • Godrej Industries • Sesa Goa • Pantaloon Retail • United Phosporous • Videocon Industries • Jindal Steel • Thermax • Glenmark Pharma • S A I L • Crompton Greaves • Siemens • Larsen & Toubro • Bharti Airtel • Century Textiles • United Spirits • Hindustan Zinc • Aditya Birla Nuvo • Engineering & Construction • Materials & Commodities • Engineering & Construction • Chemicals & Plastics • Materials & Commodities • FMCG, Retail & Durables • Chemicals & Plastics • FMCG, Retail & Durables • Materials & Commodities • Industrial Manufacturing • Pharma, Biotech & Healthcare • Materials & Commodities • Industrial Manufacturing • Industrial Manufacturing • Engineering & Construction • Telecom • Others • FMCG, Retail & Durables • Materials & Commodities • Others • 31,449 • 8,084 • 7,474 • 4,710 • 6,705 • 5,526 • 6,087 • 9,890 • 7,323 • 4,560 • 7,338 • 47,210 • 7,315 • 18,389 • 45,663 • 144,826 • 5,076 • 7,863 • 23,803 • 9,992 • 257% • 197% • 173% • 146% • 140% • 121% • 114% • 103% • 101% • 95% • 92% • 92% • 88% • 86% • 86% • 82% • 78% • 78% • 76% • 75%

  43. TOP 20 TSR COMPANIES IN MID-CAP SEGMENTSample of 115 companies Company Industry Market Cap(Rs. cr) Mar 07 TSR (02-07) • Praj Industries. • Shree Precoated Steels • Ansal Properties • Kalpataru Power • Simplex Infrastructure • Gujarat Flourochem • Nagarjuna Construction • Jai Corp • Greaves Cotton • Peninsula Land • IVRCL Infrastructure • Sintex Industries • Lakshmi Mach. Works • Jubilant Organosys • Bajaj Hindustan • Jyoti Structures • Bhushan Steel • Rajesh Exports • Mahindra Gesco • Maharashtra Seamless • Industrial Manufacturing • Materials & Commodities • Engineering & Construction • Engineering & Construction • Engineering & Construction • Chemicals & Plastics • Engineering & Construction • Materials & Commodities • Industrial Manufacturing • Engineering & Construction • Engineering & Construction • Chemicals & Plastics • Industrial Manufacturing • Pharma, Biotech & Healthcare • Materials & Commodities • Engineering & Construction • Materials & Commodities • Others • Engineering & Construction • Materials & Commodities • 3,175 • 2,505 • 3,038 • 2,885 • 1,553 • 3,244 • 3,334 • 1,964 • 1,543 • 1,540 • 3,778 • 2,352 • 3,690 • 3,734 • 2,757 • 1,375 • 2,181 • 1,388 • 2,106 • 3,575 • 224% • 206% • 192% • 162% • 143% • 140% • 135% • 134% • 133% • 125% • 120% • 116% • 115% • 112% • 109% • 106% • 102% • 101% • 98% • 93%

  44. AGENDA • The remarkable Indian value creation story • Decomposing the value creation of Indian companies • Overall winners • TSR Decomposition Methodology • Contacts • Appendix: Industry-wise top value creators

  45. SAMPLE STUDIED CONSISTS OF 191 COMPANIES AND REPRESENTS 61% OF TOTAL MARKET CAP Market capitalization by sample Rs ‘000 cr Final Sample 1 2 3 4 Filter No. of Cos. 1068 300 218 191 Note: Sample excludes firms with non-comparable valuation paradigms, TSR Breakdown analysis done on similar screening for companies with published financials Source: Capitaline

  46. INDUSTRY-WISE TSR DECOMPOSITION WAS CONDUCTED FOR FY01-06 RESULTS OF 200 COMPANIES BASED ON SIMILAR SCREENING Represents 62% Of Total Market Cap Market capitalization by sample Rs ‘000 cr Final Sample for industry-wise TSR decomposition 1 2 3 4 Filter No. of Cos. 918 300 226 199 Note: Sample excludes firms with non-comparable valuation paradigms Source: Capitaline

  47. 1 NOSH MV EV MV EV MV EV 1 N (EBITDA) x (EBITDA multiple) x NOSH Methodology SHARE PRICE CAN BE BROKEN INTO FIVE COMPONENTS MV NOSH Share price = EV x = NOSH = (Sales x EBITDA margin) x (EBITDA multiple) x x Share price = 1 2 3 4 5 S x M x m x F x Share price =

  48. S2M2m2F2 S1M1m1F1 N1 N2 ( ( ( ( ( ) ) ) ) ) m2 m1 M2 M1 N2 N1 S2 S1 F2 F1 ( ( ( ( ) ) ) ) m m M M N N S S F F 1 + 1 + 1 + 1 + Methodology TOTAL SHARE HOLDER RETURN CAN BE BROKEN INTO SIX COMPONENTS SP2 = Share price at end of year SP1 = Share price at beginning of year Dividend = Dividend during the year SP2 SP1 Dividend SP1 Total shareholder return (TSR) = – 1 x + DY – 1 = –1 = + DY – 1 ( ) –1 1 + = + DY – 1 SCAGR + MCAGR + mCAGR + FCAGR – NCAGR Total shareholder return (TSR) = + DY + allocation term

  49. MV EV Methodology TOTAL SHARE HOLDER RETURN CAN BE STUDIED IN THREE SEGMENTS Total shareholder return (TSR) ( ) ( ) No. of shares  Sales + EBITDA margin + EBITDA multiple +  – + DY + Allocation term = Growth in sales Growth in EBITDA margin Growth in EBITDA multiple Growth in MV/EV ratio(1) Growth in no. of shares Dividend Yield = + + + - + Fundamental value Multiple Cash flow effect 1 2 3 • MV/EV ratio represents the market value creation as proportion of total enterprise value - highlights the extent of debt taken by the company in relation to its market value

  50. Segment • Automotive & Supply • Chemicals & Plastics • Industrial Manufacturing • FMCG, Retail & Durables • IT • Engineering & Construction • Materials & Commodities • Oil & Gas • Others(1) • Pharmaceuticals, Biotech & Healthcare • Telecom • Transportation & Logistics • Overall COMPANIES DIVIDED INTO 12 INDUSTRY SEGMENTS Number of companies Large Cap Market Cap > $ 1 bn Mid Cap Market Cap < $ 1 bn Total • 8 • 5 • 7 • 7 • 5 • 3 • 12 • 6 • 10 • 8 • 3 • 2 • 76 • 9 • 14 • 11 • 10 • 8 • 12 • 19 • 1 • 15 • 14 • 1 • 1 • 115 • 17 • 19 • 18 • 17 • 13 • 15 • 31 • 7 • 25 • 22 • 4 • 3 • 191 • Others includes the segments for which the number of players was unrepresentative of industry: • 4 multi-businesses, 1 jewellery maker, 1 paper mfg,, 1 networks provider, 1 design and eng. company, Textile companies etc • Source: Capitaline, BCG analysis

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