Professor Michael Noble University of Oxford

1. What can Social Science Contribute to Neighbourhood renewal?Indices of Multiple Deprivation for South Africa Professor Michael Noble University of Oxford Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy (CASASP) Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

2. The Role of Indices of Multiple Deprivation in Neighbourhood Renewal • Policies for Neighbourhood Renewal have as a pre-requisite that areas in need of re-generation need to be rigorously identified • At Oxford we’ve developed Indices for England (x2 – 3rd underway), Scotland (x1), Wales (x1), Northern Ireland (x2) • In South Africa – Urban Development Programme; Integrated Rural Development Programme identified by informed opinion not evidence • Provincial Indices of Multiple Deprivation launched March 2006 Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

3. Collaborators • Statistics South Africa • Human Sciences Research Council Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

4. Outline • The model of multiple deprivation • Brief description of the PIMD and component domains • Domain and indicator issues • Brief description of the methodology • Findings • Next Steps Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

5. Model of Multiple Deprivation • Deprivation is multi-dimensional and multiple deprivation can be conceptualised as the combination of individual dimensions or domains of deprivation. • The individual domains must be identified and carefully defined. • Indicators are selected for each domain which are the best possible direct measures of that dimension of deprivation. • The indicators are combined to create an overall relative measure of that dimensionof deprivation. Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

6. Data Source • 2001 Census • Code developed on 10% SAR • Code passed to Stats SA who ran it on 100% Census • Run at ward level Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

7. The Domains • Income and Material deprivation • Employment deprivation • Health deprivation • Education deprivation • Living Environment deprivation Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

8. The Income/Material Deprivation Domain This domain aims to capture the proportions of the population experiencing income/material deprivation in an area. • Numerator = Number of people experiencing one or more of the following: • Living in a household that has a household equivalent income below R10,189 pa (R850 per month); • Living in a household without a refrigerator; • Living in a household with neither a TV nor a radio. • Denominator= Total population (excluding institutions) Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

9. The Employment Domain This domain measures employment deprivation conceptualised as involuntaryexclusion of the working age population from the world of work • Numerator = Number of people who are: • Unemployed (using official definition i.e. did not work in 7 days prior to Census night, wanted to work and available to start within a week, had taken active steps to find work or start some form of self-employment in previous 4 weeks); plus • Not working because of illness or disability • Denominator = Total economically active population (15-65 year olds incl.) + people not working because of illness or disability Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

10. The Health Domain This domain identifies areas with relatively high rates of people who die prematurely • Years of Potential Life Lost Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

11. The Education Domain The purpose of the domain is to capture the extent of deprivation in education qualifications in a local area • Numerator = Number of 18-65 year olds (inclusive) experiencing the following: • No schooling at secondary level or above • Denominator = Number of 18-65 year olds (inclusive) excluding institutions. Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

12. The Living Environment The purpose of this domain is to identify deprivation relating to the poor quality of the living environment. • Numerator = Number of people experiencing one or more of the following: • No access to a telephone; • No piped water inside their dwelling or in their yard; • No use of electricity for lighting; • Living in households that are shacks; • Living in households without a pit latrine with ventilation or flush toilet; • Living in households with two or more persons per room. • Denominator = Total population (excluding institutions) Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

13. Methodology • Dealing with small numbers (shrinkage estimation in health domain) • Combining the indicators to create domain scores • Combining the domain scores into an Index of Multiple Deprivation Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

14. Combining the domains into PIMD • Domain scores were standardised by ranking • The ranks were then transformed to an exponential distribution • Properties of the exponential • Spreads out the 25% most deprived wards • eliminates implicit weights and thus controls cancellation between domains Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

15. Provincial Geography(2001 Census) Wards were deleted if they were situated in District Management Areas or if they had very small populations. Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

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25. Limitations of PIMD • Uneven Ward geography Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

26. Variation in Ward Size Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

27. Limitations of PIMD • Uneven Ward geography • Not up to date or updateable • Domains of deprivation limited by Census variables Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy

28. Next Steps • Undertake in depth Provincial Analyses e.g. as commissioned by Western Cape • Create a ‘statistical’ geography – Data Zones • Create a National Index • Update using 2007 Community Survey (Census Replacement Survey) • Move to administrative data where possible • Create a 1996 Index to monitor change Centre for the Analysis of South African Social Policy