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Number of Galactic Civilizations Ivan Grosz ( IEGrosz111@aol.com )

Number of Galactic Civilizations Ivan Grosz ( IEGrosz111@aol.com ). Habitability Calculational Method. Ph Habitable planets with advanced civilizations in Galaxy (non – concurrent) Sg Number of stars in the galaxy n Number of critical habitability criteria

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Number of Galactic Civilizations Ivan Grosz ( IEGrosz111@aol.com )

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  1. Number of Galactic CivilizationsIvan Grosz (IEGrosz111@aol.com)

  2. Habitability Calculational Method • Ph Habitable planets with advanced civilizations in Galaxy • (non – concurrent) • Sg Number of stars in the galaxy • n Number of critical habitability criteria • C1 to Cn are rates at which stars and planets meet • the required criteria • Ph = Sg(C1xC2xC3… xCn) (1) • C is the geometric mean of the product C1 to Cn • C = (C1xC2xC3… xCn)1/n (2) • Ph = SgxCn(3) • Assuming a Galaxy with 200 billion stars, 11 critical habitability criteria and a mean compliance rate of 1/5 • Ph = (200x109) x (1/511) = 4,096 (4) • At a mean compliance rate of 1/10 • Ph = (200x109) x (1/1011) = 2 (5)

  3. Galactic Habitability Table (Ph) Non – Concurrent Advanced Civilizations per Galaxy Criteria (n) Star and Planet Compliance Rate (C) 1/4 1/5 1/6 1/7 1/8 1/9 1/10 • 16 46 1 --- --- --- --- --- • 15 186 6 --- --- --- --- --- • 14 745 32 2 --- --- --- --- • 13 2980 163 15 2 --- --- --- • 12 11980 819 91 14 2 --- --- • 11 47683 4096 551 101 23 6 2 • 10 190734 20480 3307 708 186 57 20 • 9 762939 102400 19845 4956 1490 516 200 • 8 3051757 512000 119074 34693 11920 4646 2000 Note. The Table is made for a Galaxy of 200 billion stars and can be extended for any geometric mean compliance rates as well as prorated for other galaxies. Conform Eq.3 the number of habitable planets Ph = SgCn

  4. Minimum Mean Compliance Ratio for Galaxy Habitability(Ph = 1) Criteria (n) Ratio Of Compliant Stars and Planets (C) • 20 1/3.67 • 16 1/5.08 • 15 1/5.67 • 14 1/6.42 • 13 1/7.40 • 12 1/8.75 • 11 1/10.65 • 10 1/13.49 • 9 1/18.01 • 8 1/ 25.86 Note. Ph = (200x109)xCn = 1

  5. Habitability Dividing Line

  6. Critical Habitability Criteria • 1. Location of the star in the Galaxy habitability • zone • 2 Suitable star • 3. Planet located in the star habitability zone • 4. Planet of proper size • 5. Planet with rocky geology and water • 6. Planet having magma • 7. Planet with proper orbit • 8. Proper orientation • 9. Proper speed of rotation • 10. Proper atmosphere • 11. Evolution from primitive life forms to intelligent • life

  7. Communicating Civilizations Concurrent Sequential Civilizations • Lc average life span of an advanced civilization in years • Gt suitable period in the existence of a galaxy when advanced civilizations can occur • Ph number of habitable planets with advanced civilizations (non – concurrent) • Sc number of concurrent sequential civilizations in a galaxy for the duration of Gt • The civilizations are assumed to follow consecutively for the entire favorable duration of the galaxy. • Sc = (PhxLc)/Gt (6)

  8. We assume Gt of 5 billion years and Lc as different durations from 1,000 to 1,000,000 years. • Let us consider 11 critical habitability criteria. • In the case of a compliance rate of 1/10 resulting in a Ph of 2 concurrent civilizations are not likely. • For Ph of 47,683 corresponding to a 1/4 compliance rate and • Lc = 1,000 Sc = (47,683x1,000)/(5x109)=0.0095 (7) • Lc = 10,000 Sc = (47,683x10,000)/(5x109)=0.0953 (8) . Lc= 100,000 Sc = (47,683x100.000)/(5x109)=0.9536 (9) • Lc=1,000,000 Sc=(47,683x1,000,000)/(5x109)=9.5360 (10)

  9. Number Of Concurrent Civilizations in the Universe • Lc Duration of civilizations in years • T Suitable period when advance civilizations can occur • Ng Number of galaxies in the universe • Ph No. of habitable planets per galaxy (non-concurrent civ.) • Uc Concurrent Advanced Civilizations in the Universe • The civilizations from Ph are assumed to follow consecutively for the entire favorable duration T • Uc = (NgxPhxLc)/T(11)

  10. Number Of Concurrent Civilizations in Universe (Uc) Assume Ng is 200x109 T is 10x109 years Duration (Lc) Number of Habitable Planets per Galaxy (Ph) years 1 100 1000 10000 50000 • 200 4000 400x103 4x106 40x106 200x106 • 500 10000 106 10x106100x106 500x106 • 1000 20000 2x106 20x106 200x106 109 • 10000 200000 20x106200x106 2x109 10x109 • 100000 2x106 200x1062x109 20x109 100x109 • 1000000 20x106 2x10920x109200x109 1012 Note. Can be prorated for different Ng and T values

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