Climate Futures for Tasmania: Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Options

1. Climate Futures for Tasmania: Prospects, Impacts and Information for Adaption Options Nathan Bindoff et al. ACE CRC, DPIW, Hydro Tasmania,SES,BoM, GA, TIAR, TPAC, CSIRO MAR

2. Introduction • The Players • Key user questions • Research Activities • Downscaling and global signals • Tasmanian context • Research outcome and outputs • Resources

3. Key User Questions:Climate Change • Water policy and legislation • Water management and infrastructure • Power Generation • Reservoirs, winds • Power Distribution (heat waves) • Emergency planning • Bushfires, floods • Protection of high value assets • From tourism • Impacts on power and water • dependent industry • Agriculture • Crops, wine, other horticulture, disease • Sea level surges • (from wind changes)

4. The Players

5. Research Modules • Research activities • Fine scale climate projections • Modelling water flows and reservoirs • Key climate variables • Planning, agriculture, • utility sectors and environment • Extreme events • Changes in occurrence • Consequence of change • Eg drought, flood, frosts, heat waves • Storms/winds

6. Fine Scale Climate Projections • What is downscaling • CCAM – Cubic Conformal Atmosphere Model • CSIRO MAR (John McGregor) • Validation phase • IPCC – models are used • Interpolation of pre-existing IPCC scenarios

7. Example from South West Australia

8. Tasmania Water Catchment Models AWBM Assumption: no change in land use Assumption: no change in land use

9. Example: Hydro Tasmania Inflow Prediction Most important lake • Factor of 1.0 represents no change in inflows • Factors <1.0 represents drying • Factors >1.0 represents wetter • Great Lake factors well below 1.0 and thus drying predicted • Others have drier Summers/Autumns and wetter Winters

10. Key Outputs • Outputs • Assessments of climate conditions to 2100 • Reports on future projections • Estimates of uncertainties, and mean projections • Input to operational models (Hydro, DPIW, TIAR) • Model outputs more generally. • Communication • Engagement from start, users and researchers • Liason officer • Governance model

11. Resources • 5 new postdoctoral fellows, 1 liason officer, project management team • Engagement of skills and expertise from the consortia members, including Tasmanian State Departments and business enterprises • $8 million over three years (cash + inkind) • Data Management (TPAC Digital Library) • Potential Collaborations • CERF funded projects • Other initiatives (eg SEACI).

12. Climate models, and climate model credibility Observations 1980-2000 Mean Model 1980-2000

13. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Best estimate for low scenario (B1) is1.8°C (likely range is 1.1°C to 2.9°C),and for high scenario (A1FI) is4.0°C (likely range is 2.4°C to 6.4°C). Broadly consistent with span quoted for SRES in TAR, but not directly comparable

14. Projections of Future Changes in Climate Tasmania • Precipitation increases are very likely in high latitudes in 2090-2099 • Decreases are likely in most subtropical land regions in 2090-2099 Figure SPM-6, TS-30, 10.9

15. Drought is increasing most places The most important spatial pattern (top) of the monthly Palmer Drought Severity Index (PDSI) for 1900 to 2002. The time series (below) accounts for most of the trend in PDSI.