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The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:

The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:. Working Together As An Interdisciplinary Team Timothy Walton, Ph.D.; Frances Flannery, Ph.D. Our Research Team from Intelligence Analysis at James Madison University.

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The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program:

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  1. The Problem of the Iranian Nuclear Program: Working Together As An Interdisciplinary Team Timothy Walton, Ph.D.; Frances Flannery, Ph.D.

  2. Our Research Team from Intelligence Analysis at James Madison University The Dynamics of Violent Apocalypticism and Nuclear Proliferation: Simulation of a Dynamic Hypothesis, with Implications for U.S./Iranian Relations. By Michael L. Deaton, Frances L. Flannery, and Timothy R. Walton. In progress for System Dynamics Review. Mike Deaton:

  3. The Problem: Iran is enriching uranium up to 20%, which can be further developed into nuclear weaponry. Iran is obfuscating the efforts of the IAEA. In the past, Iran has sponsored terrorism. Iran has spoken aggressively towards Israel and the United States. Discerning Iran’s intentions is key. Is the uranium intended for a weapon? If Iran had a weapon, would they use it?

  4. Formal Structures of the Iranian Government Elected Appointed President Parliament Assembly of Experts Cabinet Bureaucracy Armed Forces • Supreme Leader • Expediency Council • Guardian Council • IRGC Institutions in green are the main channels of clerical control

  5. Informal Structure of Factions Conservatives Pragmatists War Generation Reformers

  6. Leader: Ali Khamenei Supreme Leader, 1989 – present Constituencies: clergy, judiciary, monitoring organizations Program: maintain theocratic regime, national self sufficiency Conservatives

  7. Leader: Akbar Hashemi Rafsanjani President, 1989 – 1997 Chairman Assembly of Experts, 2007 – 2011 Chairman, Expediency Council, 1988 – present Constituencies: middle class, technocrats Program: economic development managed by government Pragmatists

  8. Leader: MahmoudAhmadinejad Mayor of Tehran, 2003-2005 President, 2005-2013 Constituencies: IRGC, rural poor Program: populist, nationalist, authoritarian War Generation

  9. Leader: HosseinMousavi Prime Minister , 1981-1989 Candidate for President in controversial election in 2009 Constituencies: professionals, intellectuals, ethnic minorities Program: democracy, rule of law Reformers

  10. Conventional Wisdom: Iran is a rational player. Iran will act according to the same logic as the United States, Canada, and other allies. Iran will act in terms of its own national interests and the interests of its people. Iran would therefore not use a nuclear weapon against Israel, Europe, or the United States. To do so would ensure it would be attacked and perhaps destroyed. Therefore, if Iran is developing a nuclear weapon, it is for political leverage only.

  11. Systems Dynamic Modeling SD shows an overarching model of the shifting interactions amongst factors of a system. SD encourages a complex, multi-faceted perspective. SD fosters an understanding of the various elements that can drive a system in different directions, depending on the pressures and counter-pressures applied. An example of an early working model follows.

  12. Conventional Wisdom:International efforts to deter Iran’s efforts

  13. Radical Apocalyptic Logic RADAP in a Shi’ite Islamist key Photo From Facebook, The Coming of Imam Mahdi, a screen shot of The Coming is Near. The “logic” is governed by revelation. This world is not as important as other worlds: a) heaven and b) the imminent reign of the Mahdi (heaven on earth.) The Mahdi is the pure human being who will rule over the whole world. He is coming very soon (2013?).

  14. RADAP Logic in Iran President Ahmadinejad and the Supreme Leader Khamenei are in touch with the Mahdi. He is guiding their actions and the fate of the cosmos is at stake. The prophecies: the Mahdi will revenge the Shi’a against the Sunnis, and conquer the great enemies of the Shi’a. The greatest enemies of Iran are The Great Satan (the United States) and the Little Satan (Israel). The Mahdi’s kingdom is a vast one, with Iran at its epicenter. The Mahdi’s kingdom will prevail. Period.

  15. More from Frances

  16. A Recipe for Interdisciplinary Research • scholarly expertise, with humility • flexibility of mind • deep listening • all invested in the importance of the project • language and communication • the value of simplicity • the value of the details

  17. Suggestions for the Intelligence Community • Red Team Perspective on Apocalypticism • See the world as others see it (rational, in their scheme of things) • Draw on expertise • Understand multidimensional aspects • Expand range of plausible scenarios

  18. Suggestions (Two) • Collaboration within Agencies and Interagency Collaboration • bring subject area expertise to bear, with humility • flexibility of mind • deep listening • all invested in the importance of the project • language and communication • the value of simplicity • the value of the details

  19. Questions or Comments? • Timothy Walton, Ph.D. • waltontr@jmu.edu • Frances Flannery, Ph.D. • flannefl@jmu.edu

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