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Air Quality during the Sept. 2013 Houston DISCOVER-AQ Deployment and Preliminary Evaluation of NOAA CMAQ Air Quality Forecasts Kenneth Pickering, NASA GSFC Bryan Duncan, NASA GSFC Pius Lee, NOAA ARL Mariel Friberg, Georgia Tech James Crawford, NASA LaRC

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  1. Air Quality during the Sept. 2013 Houston DISCOVER-AQ Deployment and Preliminary Evaluation of NOAA CMAQ Air Quality Forecasts Kenneth Pickering, NASA GSFC Bryan Duncan, NASA GSFC Pius Lee, NOAA ARL Mariel Friberg, Georgia Tech James Crawford, NASA LaRC and the DISCOVER-AQ Observation Team 6th Biannual AQAST Meeting – Rice University – January 15, 2014

  2. Outline Overview of meteorological and air quality conditions during the Houston DISCOVER-AQ experiment Significant pollution episodes – aerosols and ozone Air quality model forecasts available during Houston deployment Preliminary evaluation of NOAA CMAQ forecasts using DISCOVER-AQ P-3B aircraft data

  3. Daily 1-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv) – All Stations September 1st – 30th bay, sea breezes following cold front #8 #9 #1 clouds, heavy rains, marine air #4 #5 #6 #3 < #7 > #2 Relatively clean 3 flight days Moderate pollution 4 Strongly polluted 2

  4. Daily 8-Hour Max Ozone (ppbv) September 1st – 30th Sites exceeding NAAQS 8 3 NAAQS: 75 ppbv 8-hr avg

  5. Air Monitoring Sites in Houston Region Conroe Jones Forest La Porte Seabrook Texas City

  6. 1-Hour Ozone (ppbv) September 25th – 26th 25th 26th La Porte Seabrook Texas City Jones Forest Conroe La Porte

  7. Hourly PM2.5 September 2nd – 26th NAAQS: 35 µg/m3 24-hr avg. #9 #8 30 #7 #6 #5 #1 #3 #4 20 #2 Hourly PM2.5 (ug/m3) 10

  8. Houston Aerosol Episode of Sept. 14, 2013 High AOD associated with agricultural fire plumes from Mississippi Valley. Back door cold front pushed smoke over Houston. No real impact seen in surface PM2.5. Hourly PM2.5 (µg/m3)

  9. Houston Aerosol Episode of September 14, 2013 HSRL-2 Extinction West Houston to Smith Point P-3B Nephelometer & Absorption Photometer West Houston

  10. Cloud cover Extinction AOD GEOS-5 aerosol forecast from 00 UT 14 Sept. GEOS-5 global model at 0.25 deg. resolution; GOCART aerosols, CO, SO2; includes assimilation of MODIS AOD Run by Arlindo da Silva at NASA/GSFC

  11. Regional Air Quality Forecasts for Houston Deployment Univ. of Houston (Yunsoo Choi) WRF/CMAQ - 4-km resolution; NEI-2008 with MOVES WRF-Chem – 4-km resolution; NEI-2005 NOAA/ARL (Pius Lee) WRF/CMAQ at 12-km resolution; point and area emissions projected to current year; MOBILE6 vehicle emissions TCEQ (Mark Estes and ENVIRON) WRF/CAMx at 12-km resolution

  12. Conroe 9/26 Moody Tower Channelview West Houston Deer Park Smith Point Manvel Croix Galveston 9/25

  13. Gulf Galv Bay GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC CMAQ got the right idea of high ozone over Galveston Bay area late in the day, but failed to capture the early onset (by 12 – 1 PM) of the bay breeze and the magnitude of the effect on ozone. 12-km resolution insufficient to resolve bay breeze. CMAQ maximum ozone over Gulf not found.

  14. Conroe Galveston

  15. GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC GV SP MT WH CR CV DP MC NW CR m/a CMAQ very well predicted the ozone plume to the NNW of Houston during the afternoon

  16. CMAQ missed elevated O3 layer Conroe profile well forecast O3 maximum to NNW of Houston well forecast Conroe Galveston

  17. Summary • The DISCOVER-AQ Houston campaign completed successful flights with both P-3B and King Air on nine days during Sept. 2013. • Much of the month characterized by low to moderate ozone. Two days (Sept. 25 and 26) with high ozone in parts of the region, following cold frontal passage. • One day with enhanced AOD as a result of agricultural fires in the Miss. Valley, but surface PM2.5 little affected. • NOAA CMAQ ozone forecast underestimated observations on Sept. 25 due to inability to resolve bay/sea breeze. Performed well on Sept. 26. • Forthcoming work: • More comprehensive NOAA CMAQ forecast evaluation • Retrospective fine-resolution CMAQ and WRF-Chem simulations • Statistical analysis of surface versus column observations

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