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Reclamation’s Role in Managing Western Water in Evolving Climate Conditions Reclamation’s Mission

Reclamation’s Role in Managing Western Water in Evolving Climate Conditions Reclamation’s Mission Observed Climate Changes Managing Water in a Changing Climate Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor. Established in 1902, to promote settling and development of the west

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Reclamation’s Role in Managing Western Water in Evolving Climate Conditions Reclamation’s Mission

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  1. Reclamation’s Role in Managing Western Water in Evolving Climate Conditions • Reclamation’s Mission • Observed Climate Changes • Managing Water in a Changing Climate • Paul R. Houser, Science Advisor

  2. Established in 1902, to promote settling and development of the west • Best known for 600 dams, powerplants, and canals it constructed in 17 western states. • Largest water wholesaler in the country • Second largest hydroelectric producer in the western United States. • Mission: assist in meeting the increasing water demands of the West while protecting the environment and the public's investment in these structures.

  3. Observed Hydrology & Vegetation Changes Less spring snowpack TRENDS (1950-97) in April 1 snow-water content at western snow courses Less snow/more rain Stewart et al., 2005 Mote, 2003 Earlier snowmelt runoff Earlier greenup Cayan et al., 2001 Figs. M. Dettinger (USGS)

  4. Implications for water supplies, water demands, operating constraints? • Supplies • warming • less snowpack  less controllable water supply • more landscape evapotranspiration (ET)  less runoff • precipitation change? could be + or - , help or worsen… • Demands • warming • Irrigation: increased seasonal water demand (longer season, more ET) • Electricity: increased summer demand, decreased winter demand • Operating Constraints • Environment – instream flow requirements? • Reduction in cold-water supplies • Flood Protection – storage reservation requirement? • All other things equal, warming leads to greater area contributing runoff during western winter storm events – greater winter reservoir drafts? • Storm intensification could be + or -, worsen or help…

  5. Key Challenges for Reclamation • Understand how climate variability and change can affect Western water supply and demand, and Reclamation delivery of water given operational constraints (i.e. environmental constraints, flood constraints) • Bring science and technology to bear on the needs of water resources managers • Address goals of internal programs and authorizations where climate change is a factor

  6. Reclamation Climate Studies • Climate Change and Water Working Group (CCAWWG): NOAA, USGS, USACE, EPA, NASA, FEMA collaboration • Climate change is occurring; effects differ regionally. • Water resources management could be affected; hydroclimate conditions becoming non-stationary. • Climate change is one of many challenges facing water managers. From USGS Circular 1331 (Brekke et al. 2009) 2009 SECURE Water Act (PL 111-11) Secretarial Order 3289 and 3297 – WaterSMART • Federal agencies that conduct water management have a responsibility to take a lead role in assessing risks to the water resources and to develop adaptation and mitigation strategies • Establishes Landscape Conservation Cooperatives, Climate Science Centers, and Basin Studies http://www.usbr.gov/climate

  7. Adjusted Framework needed for relating global climate change to local system…

  8. West-Wide Climate Risk Assessments (WWCRA) - Hydrologic Projections (2011) SECURE Report to Congress, 2011 focus on median changes; future reports have broader scope 112 Transient Climate Projections… http://gdo-dcp.ucllnl.org/downscaled_cmip3_projections/dcpInterface.html 112 Transient Hydrologic Projections covering western U.S.… Analyses of Period-changes in climate and hydrology Peer Review 8 “big basin” VIC hydrology model-apps from Univ. of WA… Technical Report, data-development (TSC 86-68210, March 2011) Data-service, Reclamation and broader public use (Summer 2011) http://www.usbr.gov/WaterSMART/wwcra.html

  9. Change Through Time Colorado River Annual Max Weekly Runoff 2020s 2070s 2050s Temp Precip • Flood Control Implications Annual Min Weekly Runoff Snow • Environmental Flow Implications HUGE CAVEAT – e.g. calibration, validation

  10. annual Dec-Mar Apr-Jul SECURE Report: Westwide Impacts (e.g. annual and seasonal runoff) 2020s-1990s 2050s-1990s http://www.usbr.gov/climate 2070s-1990s

  11. SECURE Water Future Work • Analyze demands utilizing legacy tools with climate projections • Put activities within broader context of scenario planning (similar to CO Basin Study Approach). • Include AR5 climate projections. • Next Secure Water report due in 2016 (every 5 years) Sector Impacts • Hydropower • Ecological Resiliency • Endangered Species • Recreation • Water Deliveries • Water Quality http://www.usbr.gov/climate

  12. Colorado River Basin Water Supply and Demand Study

  13. Annual Colorado River Water Supply & Use

  14. * Additional “branches” possible depending upon assumed trajectory of specific socio-economic factors. Water Supply Scenarios * Water Demand Scenarios * Current Trends: growth, development patterns, and institutions continue along recent trends Economic Slowdown: low growth with emphasis on economic efficiency Expansive Growth: economic resurgence (population and energy) and current preferences toward human and environmental values * Enhanced Environment and Healthy Economy: expanded environmental awareness and stewardship with growing economy* Observed Resampled: • future hydrologic trends and variability will be similar to the past 100 years Paleo Resampled: • future hydrologic trends and variability are represented by the distant past (approximately 1250 years) Paleo Conditioned: • future hydrologic trends and variability are represented by a blend of the wet dry states of the paleo-climate record but magnitudes are more similar to the observed period Downscaled GCM Projected: • future climate will continue to warm with regional precipitation trends represented through an ensemble of future GCM projections * Preliminary – Subject to change

  15. Integration of Supply and Demand Scenarios Water Supply Scenarios (multiple realizations for each scenario) Water Demand Scenarios Paleo Resampled Enhanced Environment and Healthy Economy Recent Trends Paleo Conditioned Current Trends Observed Resampled Recent Trends Expansive Growth Economic Slowdown Downscaled GCM Projected Climate indexing for demands

  16. Addressing an Uncertain Future • The path of major influences on the Colorado River system is uncertain and can not be represented by a single view • An infinite number of plausible futures exist • A manageable and informative number of scenarios are being developed to explore the broad range of futures Scenario Funnel

  17. Thank YouQuestions?

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