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Projecting family migration: the French case

Projecting family migration: the French case. Presentation of Tatiana Eremenko Institut National des Études Démographiques QMSS seminar of “Multi-attribute analysis and projection of ethnic populations” Jevnaker the 5th of June 2009. Plan of the presentation. Introduction

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Projecting family migration: the French case

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  1. Projecting family migration:the French case Presentation of Tatiana Eremenko Institut National des Études Démographiques QMSS seminar of “Multi-attribute analysis and projection of ethnic populations” Jevnaker the 5th of June 2009

  2. Plan of the presentation • Introduction • Projecting migration • Migration projections in France • Family migration in France • Conclusion

  3. Introduction • Part of an on going long–term project (PhD) • Exploratory stage • More questions than answers for the moment • Up until now work on existing data sources in France: • Analysis of family reunification demands • Exploration of the characteristics of new migrants • What has constrained my work for the moment: • Diversity of sources • Methods and applications

  4. Why project? • Demographic analysis allows to understand the processes within a population • Projections are a logical next step allowing to: • synthesize the results • render visible the short and long term implications of the processes (incl. to the non specialist public)

  5. Projection of international migration 1/2 • Theoretically migration is a component of population dynamics on the same level as fertility and mortality • Practically it is overlooked in projections or made to follow some very simplistic assumptions • Constant levels of net migration • Convergence towards a null net migration • …

  6. Projection of international migration 2/2 • Large body of literature on the causes and consequences of migration, but “[…] an enormous chasm between the rudimentary state of projection practice and the explanatory richness of immigration theory.” (Howe & Jackson 2005) • Challenge: establish a link between the theoretical knowledge and practical applications for projecting international migration • However “[…] the nomological forecasting of migration, based directly on the laws or theories of population movements, is not an option, as the existing laws and theories are not universal enough to allow for the practical application of this approach […] migration forecasting should follow a model-based approach, rather than be based on any particular theory”. (Bijak 2006)

  7. Projection of family migration 1/3 • Family related migration accounts for a major part of flows in many developed countries: • Difficult to compare because covers different situations • Overall levels are nevertheless significant • In France FM accounts for more than half of the flows → interesting to consider how it might be projected

  8. Projection of family migration 2/3 • A priori family migration seems to be better adapted to a modelling approach • Hypothesis: there is a person residing in the country (and thus known to national statistical sources) which has family members abroad • Method: calculate a risk for this person to be joined according to • Personal characteristics: age, sex, citizenship, migrant background, educational level, professional occupation… • Contextual variables: country of residence, current legislation…

  9. Projection of family migration 3/3 • Practically this would mean: • Identifying the population at risk: immigrants (married or single upon arrival), second generation, persons with no migrant background → census, specialized surveys • Calculating the risks using event history techniques → specialized surveys • Making projections (backward or future) using micro-simulation techniques • Comparing to the situation observed → census, statistics on entries

  10. Data sources • Census: • Populations “at risk” • Only first generation is distinguishable • Specialized surveys: • Geographical Mobility and Social Insertion (1992) and Trajectories and Origins (2008) • Multi-topic surveys (migration, family, professional histories) • Migration statistics: • Number and characteristics of entering migrants

  11. Population projections in France • Carried out on a regular basis by the National Statistical Institute (INSEE) • Migration hypotheses → constant level during the projection period • Possible reasons for this approach: • Relative importance of migration for population dynamics • Partial coverage of migration flows

  12. Net migration and natural population change, 2000-2005

  13. Coverage of migration flows • Partial coverage of migration flows: • In the recent period only the entries of TCN are counted • Other components can only be estimated using the census • Many sources not always coherent between themselves

  14. Comparison of migration hypotheses and the observed number of entries, 1965-2004

  15. Family migration in France 1/3 • Traditional framework foreign workers – family reunification • The time-lag between the two has been explored since the start • Macro and micro approaches

  16. Family migration in France 2/3 • For the recent period (since the 1990s) this approach no longer holds since there is a diversification of the sponsor population by: • Legal status: other groups than workers may apply for family reunification • Origin countries • Migrant background: second generation, persons with no MB

  17. Family migration in France 3/3 • The recent increase in family migration is due to the fact that it comprises four categories of migrants: • Family reunification (18% in 2006) • Family member of French citizen (58%) • Family members of refugees and apatrides (2%) • Persons with family and personal ties in France (22%) • There is a further disconnection between arrival and inclusion in statistics

  18. Conclusion 1/2 • Relevance of a projection of family migration: • Significant component of migration flows in general • Qualitative impact on receiving and sending societies • Modelling and projection of family migration flows • Requires new methods and applications: cohort component method vs. Micro simulation • Demands a simplified vision of the process: restriction of the analysis to the closest family members (spouse, children, parents)

  19. Conclusion 2/2 • In the French context many sources on migration: • Richness of information • But may turn out difficult to piece together • It may be complicated to test the quality of the model: • The population we would be measuring is not the same as the one covered by the usual statistics on entries • Controversial topic • Family reunification and the immigration multiplier (Jasso & Rosenzweig 1986) • Careful choosing of hypotheses

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