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NARAC-IMAAC Overview

NARAC-IMAAC Overview. Ron Baskett, Operations Leader NARAC-IMAAC Program Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Regional Response Team III Meeting Charleston, WV September 19-21, 2006. NARAC-IMAAC Provides Predictions for Assessing a Wide Range of Atmospheric Hazards.

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NARAC-IMAAC Overview

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  1. NARAC-IMAAC Overview Ron Baskett, Operations Leader NARAC-IMAAC Program Lawrence Livermore National Laboratory Regional Response Team III Meeting Charleston, WV September 19-21, 2006

  2. NARAC-IMAAC Provides Predictions for Assessing a Wide Range of Atmospheric Hazards • Explosive dispersal of radiological material • Nuclear explosions • Toxic industrial chemical spills • Fires • Biological agents • Chemical agents • Nuclear power plant accidents What is the hazard?Where is it going?Who is at risk?How do we respond?

  3. IMAAC’s Goal is to Integrate the Best Available Science and Data from Federal, State, and Local Agencies Mesonet data in Salt Lake City basin • Data • Meteorological data (observations and forecasts) • Geographical data (terrain, land-use, population, maps, satellite and aerial imagery) • Field measurements (air concentrations, deposition) • Models and analysis tools • Deployable rapid-response models • Regional to continental-scale models • Empirical and full-physics urban-to-building scale models • Indoor • Subway • Event / source reconstruction Numerical weather prediction (COAMPS) NARAC moving vehicle scenario FEM3MP building-scale simulation

  4. State / Regional Local IMAAC Local responders Federal IMAAC Delivers a Common Operating Picture Simultaneously to Local, State, and Federal Agencies • Develop interagency preparedness and response protocols consistent with • National Response Plan (NRP) • National Incident Management System (NIMS) • Provide predictions, analyses and expert interpretation to • Incident/Unified Command (local and state agencies) • Regional response teams (e.g., On-Scene Coordinators) • Coordinating Agency and Principal Federal Official • DHS National Operations Center (SWO and S&T Coordinator) • Other federal operations centers

  5. NARAC has Served as the IMAAC since April 2004 • April 15, 2004: Homeland Security Council • Created the IMAAC • Designated NARAC as the interim provider of IMAAC services • May 2004 • DHS-led interagency working group • Dec 2004 • Memorandum of Understanding signed by representatives of DHS, NOAA/DOC, DOD, DOE, EPA, NASA, NRC • IMAAC roles codified in NRP • Dec 2005 • Standard Operating Procedures V1 Planned future agencies HHS [DOT, USGS] “The IMAAC provides a single point for the coordination and dissemination of Federal dispersion modeling and hazard prediction products that represent the Federal position during actual or potential incidents requiring federal coordination” - National Response Plan (NRP) Notice of Change May 2006

  6. 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 Chernobyl reactor building after explosion (Ukraine, 1986) and LLNL plume prediction Photo of smoke from tire dump fire (Tracy, California,1998) with plume prediction in red NARAC has a 27 year record of timely and accurate hazard atmospheric release responses Selected Events 1979 Three Mile Island reactor leak 1980 Titan Missile explosion AK 1980 China atmospheric nuclear tests 1986 Chernobyl reactor accident 1991 Kuwaiti oil field fires 1993 Richmond, CA refinery fire 1997 Cassini satellite launch 1998 Tracy tire dump fire 1999 Tokaimura, Japan, criticality accident 2001 September 11 2003 Staten Island oil barge fire 2003-2004 New Years Orange Alert 2004 Conyers, GA chemical fire 2006 Pluto New Horizons spacecraft launch 1973 DOE R&D Program 1979 ARAC Operational Center established Generation-2 system (nuclear/radiological) DOE site support for toxic industrial chemicals DOE CBNP program 1996 DOE NARAC facility dedicated Generation-3 system (CBRN) 2002 LINC program 2003 DHS S&T 2004 DHS interim IMAAC established

  7. NARAC-IMAAC Program Sponsors • DOE Emergency Operations • National Atmospheric Release Advisory Center (NARAC) • Part of DOE’s national radiological response assets: FRMAC, AMS, ARG, NEST, REACTS • DHS Science and Technology • Interagency Modeling and Atmospheric Assessment Center (IMAAC) • Local Integration of NARAC with Cities (LINC) demonstration project (NYC, Seattle, Ft. Worth, Cincinnati, Albuquerque) • Urban and CB Plume Modeling Research and Development • DOD/DOE Naval Reactor program emergency response • DOE Office of International Emergency Management and Cooperation • LLNL projects for DHS, DOE, and DOD

  8. We Collaborate with Many Organizations to Provide Integrated Emergency Response Support • DOE national and regional operations centers and response teams • Interagency radiological response centers and teams • DHS national and regional operations centers and response teams • Fixed nuclear sites • NRC national and regional operations centers and teams • DOD national operations centers and teams • EPA operations centers and regional response teams • NOAA national centers and teams • National laboratories • LLNL centers of chemical, biological and nuclear expertise • NASA • Local and State operations centers and response teams ― State EOCs and response organizations, DHS/LINC demonstration cities • Demonstration CSTs LLNL supports 300+ collaborating local, state, and federal agencies and emergency operations centers and over 1700 on-line users

  9. IMAAC Draws Upon Existing Interagency Models to Develop a Complete Suite of Capabilities Examples of IMAAC agency models: • Hazmat / toxic industrial chemical models (e.g., NOAA/EPA ALOHA / CAMEO • Radiological plume models (DOE HOTSPOT) • Empirical urban models (DOE, DoD) • DOE/DHS NARAC modeling suite • DoD Joint Effects Model (HPAC + VLSTRACK + D2PC) • Weather forecast models (NOAA/NCEP, DoD’s AFWA, FNMOC) • NOAA HYSPLIT • Nuclear power plant (NRC RASCAL) • Building-scale CFD models (DOE/DHS, DoD, EPA) • Indoor (LBNL/NIST) • Subway (ANL)

  10. NARAC-IMAAC Overview Operational Capabilities

  11. NARAC Provides Comprehensive Operational Capabilities for Assessing Airborne Hazards • Access to world-wide weather data and geographical information: • Observed & forecast weather data • Terrain & land surface • Maps • Population NARAC at LLNL: • Computer systems for 3-D plume simulations • Un-interruptible, backup power • 24x7 scientific & technical support • Automated real-time reachback 3-D plume model predictions for nuclear, radiological, chemical or biological releases provided in minutes from national center using Internet/Web tools • Standalone simple plume modeling tools for end-user’s computer require no connection to NARAC

  12. NARAC-IMAAC Provides Consequence Management Tools, Services & Products • Incident Management Information • Health effects, exposed population and facilities • Casualty/fatality/damage estimates • Response strategies • Protective action recommendations • Geographical information • Event information • Weather data • Nuclear, radiological, chemical, biological source information • Sensor data • Plume Models and Expertise • Advanced, automated 3-D plume modeling anywhere in real-time • Scientific and technical staff provides training/assistance and detailed analysis 24 hrs x 7 days

  13. IMAAC Predictions Can be Shared with Local, State and Federal Stakeholders via the Web Local, State & Federal Response Teams IMAAC at NARAC Incident Info • Quality-assured products and reports Product Distribution via IMAAC Web server Common operating picture distribution to designated federal, state, and local agencies

  14. City NARAC ADAPT/LODI Core Central Modeling System Provides 3-D Plume Model Predictions Geographical, Terrain Elevation, Population Databases Model grid generator Sourcecharacteristics Data assimilation model (ADAPT) Meteorological Observations Regional Forecast Model (Navy COAMPS) Air and ground contamination, Dose, Protective Actions Guidelines, acute health effects Large-scale forecast models (Navy, NWS) Lagrangian Operational Dispersion Integrator (LODI) NARAC’s modeling system is fully automated and works for any location in the world in real-time

  15. GridGen Generates Variable Resolution Grids for ADAPT/LODI Simulations • Variable-resolution model grids allow for more accurate simulations in areas of interest, and faster calculations elsewhere • A continuous lower boundary follows terrain elevation Higher horizontal resolution near release point Higher vertical resolution near the ground Vertical plane Horizontal plane

  16. Source Characterization Models are Critical to Accurate Predictions • Explosive dispersal devices: airborne fractions, particle-size distribution (SNL Source Term Calculator) • Chemical and biological sprayers (SNL) • Toxic industrial chemicals (leaks, spills, tanks) (NOAA/EPA) • Explosive prompt blast effects prediction (SNL BLAST model) • Buoyant & momentum plume rise from fires or stack emission (LLNL LODI model) • Nuclear power plant release characteristics (NRC RASCAL model)

  17. Extensive Geospatial Databases Underlie Assessments Terrain Elevation is used for lower boundary of 3-D meteorological flow and dispersion models PopulationDensity is used to estimate the population affected by the plume Urban and Rural Land Characteristics are used to model their effects on wind and turbulence • Global coverage • NGDC 10km • USGS 1km • NIMA DTED (1km, 100m, and 30m) • U.S. coverage • USGS DEM 30m • Global coverage • ORNL 1km GLCC • U.S. coverage • USGS 200m LULC • USGS 30m NLCD • Global coverage • ORNL 1km LandScan • U.S. coverage • Census Bureau • LANL day-night variation

  18. NOAA National Weather Service (observational data, gridded analyses & forecast data) AFWA FNMOC Air Force Weather Agency Fleet Numerical Meteorological (observational data, gridded and Oceanographic Center analyses & forecast data) (gridded analyses & forecast data) Supported Sites Navy Facilities Other Supplementary Networks Kennedy Space Center MESOWEST AWS (tower data) Internet Dial-up line Satellite Redundant Weather Services Provide Automated Meteorological Data NOAA Port LLNL

  19. Case Study: Hypothetical RDD in Salt Lake City Mesonet Surface Wind Observations Great Salt Lake Salt Lake Valley Jan. 30, 2002 Early morning light near-surface winds show cold air drainage flow down slopes & towards the Great Salt Lake

  20. Case Study: Hypothetical RDD in Salt Lake City ― NARAC ADAPT 3-D Model Surface Winds Salt Lake City Jan. 30, 2002 Early morning light near-surface winds show cold air drainage flow down slopes & towards the Great Salt Lake High-explosive Detonation Point

  21. Case Study: Hypothetical RDD in Salt Lake City ― NARAC ADAPT 3-D Model Upper-level Winds Stronger Upper-level winds from the north

  22. NARAC Model Simulation of a “Dirty Bomb” North RDD detonation point Red particles show simulation of an explosion from 5:00 to 11:00 MST

  23. Frame 2 @ 5:15 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

  24. Frame 3 @ 5:30 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

  25. Frame 4 @ 5:45 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

  26. Frame 5 @ 6:00 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

  27. Frame 6 @ 6:15 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

  28. Frame 7 @ 6:30 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

  29. Frame 8 @ 6:45 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

  30. Frame 9 @ 7:00 MST Upper level cloud transported southward Lower level cloud transported northward by surface winds Note: Increase mixing begins as daytime heating of surface occurs

  31. Frame 10 @ 7:15 MST Hypothetical “Dirty Bomb” in Salt Lake City

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