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automated Vehicles and transportation system sustainability. National Conference of the American Planning Association April 26, 2014 Dr. Louis A. Merlin, AICP. Does automation lead to sustainability?. Answer: Either Yes, No, or Maybe. Scenario 1: The end of congestion
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automated Vehicles and transportation system sustainability National Conference of the American Planning Association April 26, 2014 Dr. Louis A. Merlin, AICP
Does automation lead to sustainability? • Answer: Either Yes, No, or Maybe. • Scenario 1: The end of congestion • Scenario 2: The beginning of mega-congestion
What do we mean by automated vehicles? • Automation • Connection • Sharing • Convergence??
Connection: V2V, V2I, V2X Source: Florida Department of Transportation
Car sharing & Ride sharing Source: The Nature Conservancy
Sustainable transport requires the integration of all three components!
Sustainable transport via automation integration • Congestion reduction – Flow and capacity optimized in real time via integration • Built in Pricing – High marginal costs encourages shorter trips • Affordability – Low fixed costs means more people can benefit from mobility • Vehicle fleet – Smaller vehicle sizes and more efficient fleet possible • Multimodalism – Alternative modes can be more competitive without auto oriented urban designs (Less parking!)
Roadblocks to integration • The Vehicle Ownership Paradigm • Automation: The slow rollout model • Market uncertainty: Will consumers want this? • Liability: Shift from driver to manufacturer • Chicken and egg problem: Regulations and infrastructure for integrated automation don’t exist yet
Value of pilot projects • Break through the chicken and egg problem • Demonstrate benefits of integrated automation in real world settings • CityMobil2 – Europe • University of Michigan Mobility Transformation Center
cityMobil2: Cities demonstrating automated road passenger transport • Pilot projects in real cities • How will passengers respond? • Are these systems safe and robust? • How does this system interact with other components of the transport system? • Analysis of legal barriers and standards • Analysis of economic impacts • Link: http://www.citymobil2.eu/en/
University of Michigan Mobility transformation center • Pilot study of connected vehicles with human drivers • What are the safety benefits? • How do drivers react to connected vehicle information? • Link: http://safetypilot.umtri.umich.edu/ • By 2021, Ann Arbor could become the first American city with a shared fleet of networked, driverless vehicles • Link: http://victors.engin.umich.edu/article.php?id=116
A modest Proposal:automated transit for the Atlanta beltline Source: Atlanta Beltline Inc. Source: Induct Technology.com
A modest Proposal:automated transit for the Atlanta beltline • Vehicles designed to work in areas with pedestrian activity • Less expensive than light rail infrastructure • Flexible to a range of demand • Opportunity to be technology pioneer
Questions? Dr. Louis Merlin, AICP University of North Carolina, Chapel Hill louismerlin@gmail.com
automated Vehicles and transportation system sustainability National Conference of the American Planning Association April 26, 2014 Dr. Louis A. Merlin, AICP
Long Range Planning and Uncertainty • Infrastructure planning has long lead times, high costs, and irreversibility • Uncertainty over sources transportation finance • Uncertainty over climate impacts on infrastructure • Uncertainty over demographic and economic trends • Uncertainty over vehicular technologies and their implications