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Coupled and Forced Solutions of MJO: Implication for Prediction Bin Wang, Xiouhua Fu, Tim Li

Coupled and Forced Solutions of MJO: Implication for Prediction Bin Wang, Xiouhua Fu, Tim Li University of Hawaii. Are MJO or boreal summer ISO reproducible in forced AGCM simulation (AMIP)? Atmospheric only model may significantly loss of reproducibility and predictability.

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Coupled and Forced Solutions of MJO: Implication for Prediction Bin Wang, Xiouhua Fu, Tim Li

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  1. Coupled and Forced Solutions of MJO: Implication for Prediction Bin Wang, Xiouhua Fu, Tim Li University of Hawaii

  2. Are MJO or boreal summer ISO reproducible in forced AGCM simulation (AMIP)? Atmospheric only model may significantly loss of reproducibility and predictability. Bifurcation of the coupled and forced solutions due to IC and BC errors.

  3. Regional Hybrid Coupled Model • Atmospheric Model: ECHAM4.6 T30 (3.75o). • Ocean Model: 2.5-layer Intermediate Model, 2ox1o • Coupling: daily, Full, No flux correction • Integration 16 years (10 years) (CTL and sensitivity)

  4. Boreal summer ISO (northward propagation over Indian monsoon region)

  5. Coherent evolutions among convection, surface winds and SST (Observations)

  6. Phase Relationships between Rainfall and SST

  7. Labels Initial Condition Boundary Condition CPL(CTL) ECMWF analysis at January 1, 1988 Direct coupling (Save SST for ECHAMDATM) ECHAM (BC): Forced Same as above Truncated SST from CPL CPL(BC) Same as above Indirect coupling (Pass truncated SST to atmosphere) ECHAM (IC) Forced 1-day difference Forced by SST from CPL(I) Design of four sensitivity experiments

  8. CMAP Rainfall Coupled Daily Forced Mean Forced

  9. CPL(CTL) CPL(BC) ECHAM (IC) Forced ECHAM (BC) Forced Fu and Wang 2003

  10. Regressed Fields from the Control Coupled Run

  11. Thank You !

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