How to Analyze the Impact of Migration on Individuals, Households, and Geographic Areas

1. How to Analyze the Impact of Migration on Individuals, Households, and Geographic Areas Jason Schachter, Statistician United Nations Economic Commission for Europe Towards better Evidence on Migration and Development in Eastern Europe and Central Asia, Capacity-building Workshop on Migration Statistics Almaty, Kazakhstan, 31 October, 2013

2. Why are migration statistics needed? • Better understand migration processes/experiences • Monitor the conditions of migrants • Improve policy making and planning • Immigration control and support, diaspora, remittances, etc. • Inform public debate

3. What type of data should be collected? • Policy-driven research questions • ‘Size” of “migrant” population • “Characteristics” of migrants, e.g. for specific groups (refugees, highly skilled workers, characteristics of returnees, labour force experiences, etc.)‏ • “Impact” of migration on people and areas (e.g. remittances and their development potential)‏

4. Possible Positive Impact of Emigration • Reduction of unemployment and stress on public services and infrastructure in country of origin • Increase of income and standard of living of out-migrants and non-migrant household members (via remittances)‏ • Increase of trade and transnational relations through diaspora networks • Return migrants bring back skills and resources acquired abroad

5. Possible Negative Impact • Leavesbehind an older population (outmigration of the young, highlyeducated, and economically active)‏ • Outmigration of specific industries and occupations (e.g. health care), and loss of human capital (and wealth)‏ • Depopulation, with an impact on future development, employmentopportunities, public infrastructure, taxes, health care services,etc.

6. Possible Negative Impact, cont. • Imbalanced regional development (rapid urbanization, depopulation in rural areas, etc.)‏ • Dependency on remittances • Impact of remittances on the value of local currency, and its effect on trade

7. Units of Analysis • National/Regional/Community • Socioeconomic and contextual data • Household • All household members • Living conditions • Housing characteristics • Remittances • Individual • Migration history • Personal characteristics (age, sex, education, etc.)‏ • Reason for move • Economic activity (before and after move)‏ • Social networks

8. Dimensions of Analysis • Size • Characteristics • Impact

9. Size • Stock of international migrants • Size of diaspora • Number of in-migrants over last 12 months • Net migration rate • Amount of money sent to household from outside the country

10. Characteristics • Demographic (e.g. age, sex, race)‏ • National origin/Nativity • Education • Marital status • Labour force activity/employment status/income • Remitter/remittance recipient

11. Impact • More difficult to measure • “The action of one object coming forcibly into contact with another”/“a marked effect or influence” • Can impact positively or negatively • Data scarcer

12. Impact of Migration (some dimensions) • Economic • Income, poverty, economic growth, employment, etc. • Education • Investment, attainment, quality, etc. • Demographic • Fertility, mortality, population growth/decline, etc. • Health • Healthcare, disease prevalence, etc. • Social/Gender • Female migrants’ opportunities, gender roles, attitudes, family structure, cultural values, etc.

13. Can have an impact on (units of analysis): • Individuals • Current and return migrants • Households/Families • Geographic Areas (local and national) • Environment

14. How to Measure/Analyze • Measurement of change since migration • Comparison of an individual’s current characteristic and characteristic just before move • At either the individual or household level • Subjective (how was health before move/ how is health now) • Objective (level of education, labour force status, income levels)

15. Other Examples • Household income with and without remittances, changes in wages, benefits of education, etc. • Acquisition of skills since migration experience

16. How to Measure/Analyze • Characteristics of both migrants and non-migrants (compare groups) • Comparison of migrant vs. non-migrant households‏ • Household income/expenditure • Business ownership trends/entrepreneuriship • Ability to save

17. Health example • Migration could potentially harm health through exposure to poor nutrition, living conditions, lack of access to social services or exposure to new diseases. • Migration may provide migrants with better living conditions and higher incomes than those in their home country, improving their health, increase expenditure on health care, etc.

18. Analysis for Geographic Areas • Change in: • Population growth/decline • Aggregate characteristics (e.g. age structure, poverty rates, labour force composition,etc.) • Other contextual variables • Strain on local infrastructure • Services, tax revenue, etc. • Rural vs. Urban

19. Indirect Impacts of Migration • Transfer of ideas • Potential behaviorial changes (e.g. increase chance of migrating; field of education; language acquisition) • Cultural changes • Change attitudes towards gender roles.

20. Analysis of Differences • Descriptive • Measures of central tendencies (mean) and variation (deviation from mean) • Inferential/Inductive • Probability that observed differences between groups are real • General Linear Model (T-Test, ANOVA, Regression analysis, etc.)

21. If differences between groups are found causality issues to be aware of • Reverse Causality • Migration does not cause increased income, but increased income increases the possibility of migrating • Self-Selection • Comparisons between migrants and non-migrants are not valid, since migrants might be different from non-migrants • Multivariate analysis and other analytical techniques can help control for these factors

22. Policy Needs vs. Data Availability • Policy oftenneedsrapid and definiteanswers and solutions • Data not alwaysavailable • Qualityresearchtakes time and does not alwaysprovidedefinitiveanswers • Policy makers should be committed to evidence-based policy making • Often use resultsselectively • Researchers need to be aware of policy contexts • Need to presentfindings in easily accessible and comprehensible formats

23. Use of Indicators to measure impact at National (and Global) Level • What is an indicator? • Indices, way to measure something (size) • Output (monitoring), outcome (evaluation), goals • Set benchmarks and targets • Measure progress towards goals (performance) • Monitor trends over time • Quantitative vs. Qualitative (subjective) • Qualitative can be used to measure change/impact (self-perception) • MDGs • Sustainable Development Goals

24. Post-2015 Development Agenda Indicators (SDGs) • Set Targets • Clear, consise, objectively measured • Use easy to understand numerical scales • Able to aggregate to represent global and regional trends • Used for Monitoring Progress

25. Criteria for Indicators • «Outcome» indicators focused on long-term results • Levels and trends over time • Measurable over time with data collected by countries • Use official statistics/stay within their capacity • Inform policy • Clear and easy to communicate to public • Limited number • Should be within regular statistical output • Consistency over time • Use international standards

26. Indicators for Post-2015 Agenda? • How can impact of migration be measured within these pillars? • Social • Environment • Economic • What other indicators would be useful? • Should migration be included in SDGs? • Data availability issues • Lack of harmonization

27. IOM Indicators (broad categories) (2012) • Economic and Assets • Demography • Education • Health • Gender • Wider Social • Governance and Rights • Environment • Other Transfers