Bridging the Gap Between Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Decisionmakers in Agriculture ACIAR -PCARRD/ PAGASA - PIDS -L S

1. Bridging the Gap Between Seasonal Climate Forecasts and Decisionmakers in Agriculture ACIAR-PCARRD/PAGASA-PIDS-LSU/SARDI-NSWDPI/US PROJECT LAUNCH July 27, 2005, 9:00 a.m. - 12:00 noon Camellia-Dahlia Room, Dusit Hotel Nikko Makati City

2. Plan of Activities • Seasonal Climate Forecasting • Farm and Policy Level Case Studies • Dissemination

3. Plan of ActivitiesSeasonal Climate Forecasting • Improving the capacity of PAGASA to develop and deliver SCF • Document status of climate data in the Philippines and update database in RAINMAN • Prepare seasonal climate forecasts to be used in the farm level and policy level studies • Produce information package re SCF

4. Plan of ActivitiesValuing SCF • Distilling key practical and methodological features of economic and psychological approaches to valuing SCF • Compare the strengths and weaknesses of different approaches to valuing SCF

5. Plan of ActivitiesCase Studies • Estimating the potential economic value of SCF for farm level and policy level case studies • Expected returns from decisions based on knowledge of average rainfall conditions will be compared with expected returns from decisions based on rainfall probabilities from SCF. • Compare alternative methods in terms of ease of use, sensitivity to input assumptions and conclusions regarding potential value of SCF.

6. Sites for the Farm Level Case Studies

7. Plan of ActivitiesFarm Level Case Studies • The studies will provide information about how farmers and other decision makers use SCF to make real decisions. • They will also be used to estimate the value of SCF.

8. Plan of ActivitiesPolicy Case Study • The policy case study will show the potential economic value of SCF to policy level decisions in the Philippines • Focuses on procurement and storage of rice • NFA responsible for stabilization of grains supply and prices, both at the farmgate and consumer levels

9. Plan of ActivitiesPolicy Case Study • Philippines net importer of rice • Grain storage and price decisions are based on expected total grain production, where total production is projected using statistical forecast based on expected harvested areas and potential yield per hectare.

10. Volume of Rice Imports(in metric tons) Philippines, 1980 - 2005 Sources: Volume of Imports: NFA ENSO Years: Dr. Wilfredo David’s presentation on ENSO

11. Plan of ActivitiesPolicy Case Study • This study will explore the links between SCF and grain storage policy and evaluate its impact in terms of efficient grain storage and pricing decisions at the national and local levels. • This study will examine the impact of ENSO on the price and regional supply or rice purchased by the Philippines, given that ENSO has an impact across Asia.

12. Plan of ActivitiesActual and Potential Uses of SCF • Identifying factors leading to a gap between actual and potential values of SCF • Describe how SCF are currently being used in the case study areas • Estimate the actual value of SCF to farm and policy level decisions in the Philippines • Assess reasons for the divergence in actual and potential values

13. Plan of ActivitiesDissemination • Developing and implementing strategies to better match forecasts with decisionmakers’ needs • How to present SCF information to farmers • How to educate decisionmakers in the use of SCF technologies

14. Dissemination StrategiesWhat are the information to be disseminated? • Basic concepts about weather/climate • various climate phenomena/events, risks involved, the science of seasonal climate forecasts, etc. • Regular weather/climate outlook/forecasts • Results of project’s various research/case studies/surveys

15. Dissemination StrategiesWho are our target beneficiaries/users? Basically, the ones making decisions in the and affecting the agriculture sector: • Farmers - at the farm level • Policymakers – both at the national/macro level and the local level

16. Dissemination StrategiesHow do we reach them? • IEC type of activities – seminars, fora, lectures, handouts/publications thru various conduits such as: • LGUs • NGOs • Research centers/groups especially those working with farmers • Media, especially local media (provincial radio-television stations, local newspapers and media groups), the PIA and DevComNet

17. Dissemination StrategiesHow do we reach them? • Dialogues with various groups (especially one case studies and surveys) • Farmers groups • Community leaders/associations • Leagues of barangays, municipalities/cities and provinces • Media • Internet

18. Dissemination StrategiesWhat have we done so far? • Pulong Saliksikan at PIDS on basic climate concepts and their implications (with government technical and policy level representatives) • Seminar-workshop at Leyte State University (with provincial and municipal agriculturists, and members of academe in the region) • Quarterly Climate Outlook Fora of PAGASA

19. Dissemination StrategiesWhat have we done so far? • Handouts on basic concepts (for media, LGUs, NGOs) • This project launch to introduce the project and to solicit your interest support and feedback • Project website detailing the project description, objectives and progress of work URL is: http://dirp3.pids.gov.ph/ACIAR