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Aviation personnel demand – now and in the future

Aviation personnel demand – now and in the future. Forecast for Poland. Plan of the presentation. Need for aviation in the modern world Actual size of aviation in Poland Aviation personnel : 3.1 Licensed - flying personnel

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Aviation personnel demand – now and in the future

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  1. Aviationpersonneldemand – now and inthefuture Forecast for Poland

  2. Plan of thepresentation • Need for aviationinthe modern world • Actualsize of aviationin Poland • Aviationpersonnel: 3.1 Licensed - flyingpersonnel - groundpersonnel 3.2 Non-licensed - flying - postholders on certifiedorganizations 4. Forecast for future

  3. 1. Need for aviationinthe modern worldAir mail in 1915

  4. If travelling - why by plane?Someobviousfacts • No othermeans to reachoverseascountries • In specificcombination of distance and passengernumberaviationisthe most environment-friendly transport mode (!) • Time-savingtripisvaluableboth for buissnes and leisurepurposes • GA and sport aviationareperspectiveoccupation of part of thenation • Airportsarebuiltquickerthanhighways and railways

  5. „Green aircraft”- Not so obvious? • For long distancetripsaircrafthasthelowestpossibleground and air frictionfactor • No need for break and accelerationdue to road and trafficchanges • Efficiency of modern aircraft (2000km): - for transport of 1 passenger for 100 km: An-2: 7,5 kg of fuel B 737: 2,7 kg A 380: 2,0 kg B787/A350: < 2 kg

  6. Polishspecificreason for aviation? • Underdevelopedgroundinfrastructure • Lowpopulationdensity • Growing GDP • EU and Schengen facilitations • Foreign investments • Educatedpopulation, open for theworld • Great and multigenerationemigration • Open EU labour market • Overseastouristicdestinations

  7. 2. Actualsize of aviationin Poland- 20 milion of passengers (2010), 38 milion population (0,53 flight per yearvs ≈2 in EU15)- 5540 licensedpersonnel- 2000 aircraftregistered- 17 AOC holders- 37 AWC holders- 153 certifiedaviationschools (!) - 11 airports (only)- DOA and POA - Maintenance and CAMOPassengernumberisbasic for furtherconsiderations

  8. Historic GDP vs PAX numberinPolad Since 1993 GDP growth withsharprise of PAX

  9. Paxnumberprediction for Poland (40 mln in 10 years)PolishCivilAviaton Office predictiondoneinpreviousyears

  10. Passengertrafficdecentralizationin Polandsince2004 to 2009Source: CAO Poland Red – regionsBlue – WarsawThebiggest one - 2009

  11. Country areainsq km per airport

  12. Aviationpersonnel

  13. 3.1 Licensedpersonnel Flying personnel Groundpersonnel Mechanics A/B/C Refuelingoperators ATC/FI Remotecontrolledvehiclesoperators • ATPL • CPL • PPL • LPL • Navigators • Flying mechanics

  14. 3.2 Approvedpersonnel Flying personnel Groundpersonnel AOC postholders: - Responsible finance manager (OPS1.175h) - Postholders: operational, maintenance(OPS1.174i) Maintenancepostholders: Part M/F: - Responsiblefinance manager (AMC M.A.606a) - Maintenance manager, workshop manager (AMC M.A.606b) Part 145: - Responsiblefinance manager (AMC 145.A.30) - Responsiblemanagers for hangar, line and workshop (AMC.A.30b) Trainingorganizations: - FTO(JAR FCL 1.055a): Traininman.(HT), Flightman.(CFI), Groungman. (CGI) - TRTO (JAR FCL1.055 Annex2): Trainingman. (HT) - CTO (non-JAR, national):Director, Traininman.(HT), Flightman.(CFI), Groungman. (CGI), otherresposibletraininpersonnel Airports: - firefighters, security, meteo, Security organizations: - screeners POA DOA • Cabinattendant

  15. Licensedpersonnelagetotal no of personnelin 2010 = 5450

  16. 4. Forecast for future

  17. Approximation for ATPL(A) • In 10 years (2020) 40 mln pax • Thatis 2,5 mln flights • Thatis 900 crews, equal to 2500 pilotsneeded • Now we have 916 ATPL(A) pilots, with 400 non-activeafter 10 years (500 stillactivein 2020) • In next 10 years 2000 ATPL pilotsmust be trained to fulfilldemands of Polish market • In 10 years ALL aviationpersonnelmust be doubled!

  18. Old prediction of air transportfutureisonlysimilar to ourpredictions

  19. Old prediction of General Aviationsometimesdistancefrompredictions to reality isreally big…

  20. Recapitulation • GDP growth • Lifestyle • International contacts • Foreign investments • Emigration - allthiscreatesdemand for aviation, firsth of all for air transport, then for training and GA • More flyingaircraft • More pilots • More maintenace • More mechanics • More instructors, examiners • More certifiedorganisations (AOC, CAMO, Maintenace, handling, airports, ATC, security, TRTO, DOA, POA etc.) • More postholders - All thisresultsineducationneeds to be fullfilled by schools and univerities

  21. Thankyou for your time

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