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Macro Trends and What They Mean for 2050. Jeff Jonas IBM Distinguished Engineer jeffjonas@us.ibm.com www.jeffjonas.typepad.com. Collections of technologies create big effects. 67. 75M ~17+%. Avg Age. 37. Number Dead. 300M ~4.5%. Today: Global Average. 1900: Western
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Macro Trends and What They Mean for 2050 Jeff Jonas IBM Distinguished Engineer jeffjonas@us.ibm.com www.jeffjonas.typepad.com
Collections of technologies create big effects.
67 75M ~17+% Avg Age 37 Number Dead 300M ~4.5% Today: Global Average 1900: Western Europe 1300’s: “Black Death” Today: If America sunk into ocean and everyone dies The World Becomes Less Dangerous
2050 Prediction Your doctor is 102 and this is not weird.
Re-animation of 1918 Spanish Influenza (<50 people, <$100k) John D Rockerfeller Years to $1B • Today: • 160,000,000 deaths Mark Zuckerberg (FaceBook) 1870: Many years 2005: <3 years Much More … Much Faster & Much Easier 1st Nuke (130,000 people, $37B) Difficulty BAD! • 1953: • 140,000 deaths GOOD!
2050 Prediction Your 14-year-old neighbor makes $10B from their bedroom.
Surveillance is irresistible. Sensors become ubiquitous. Piles of data become one.
2050 Prediction Collective intelligence will locate what you need to know … and tell you!
Data about where you are right now Observations of migratory birds 2050: Insight From Above “Jump to the right 1 foot!”
When collective intelligence serves … … you and your doctor … HATE! … the police looking at you … LOVE!
Macro Trends and What They Mean for 2050 Jeff Jonas IBM Distinguished Engineer jeffjonas@us.ibm.com www.jeffjonas.typepad.com