Chapter 3

1. Chapter 3 Demographic Perspectives

3. Chapter Outline The Prelude To The Demographic Transition Theory The Theory Of The Demographic Transition The Demographic Transition Is Really A Set Of Transitions

4. Population Density of the World

5. Developing a Demographic Perspective Two Questions: What are the causes of population growth (or, at least, population change)? What are the consequences of population growth or change?

6. Premodern Doctrines

7. Premodern Doctrines

8. Premodern Doctrines

9. Modern Theories

10. Modern Theories

11. Modern Theories

12. The Malthusian Perspective Malthus argued that people have a natural urge to reproduce, and the increase in the food supply cannot keep up with population growth. The major consequence of population growth, according to Malthus, is poverty. Within that poverty is the stimulus for action that can lift people out of misery.

13. Critiques of Malthus Assertion that food production could not keep up with population growth. Conclusion that poverty was an inevitable result of population growth. Belief that moral restraint was the only acceptable preventive check.

14. Geometric and Arithmetic Growth If we start with 100 acres supporting 100 people and add 100 acres per decade (arithmetic) while the population increases 3% per year (geometric) there will be a few decades of food surplus before growth overtakes increased cultivation, producing a food deficit..

15. The Marxian Perspective Each society at each point in history has its own law of population that determines population growth. For capitalism, the consequences are overpopulation and poverty. For socialism, population growth is readily absorbed by the economy with no side effects.

16. John Stuart Mill Basic thesis was that the standard of living is a major determinant of fertility levels. The ideal state is that in which all members of a society are economically comfortable.

17. Ars�ne Dumont Late 19th century French demographer who felt he discovered a new principle of population called �social capillarity�. The desire of people to rise on the social scale, to increase their individuality as well as their personal wealth. To ascend the social hierarchy requires that sacrifices be made.

18. �mile Durkheim Based an entire social theory on the consequences of population growth. Population growth leads to greater societal specialization, because the struggle for existence is more acute when there are more people.

19. Theory of the Demographic Transition Emphasizes the importance of economic and social development. Leads first to a decline in mortality and then to a commensurate decline in fertility. Based on the experience of the developed nations, and derived from the modernization theory.

20. The Demographic Transition Divided roughly into three stages. Birth and death rates are high. Transition from high to low birth and death rates. The growth potential is realized as death rate drops before the birth rate drops, resulting in rapid population growth. Death rates are as low as they are likely to go, while fertility may continue to decline to the point that the population might decline.

21. The Demographic Transition

22. Modernization Theory Macro-level theory that sees human actors as being buffeted by changing social institutions. Individuals did not deliberately lower their risk of death to precipitate the modern decline in mortality. Society wide increases in income and improved public health infrastructure brought about this change.

23. Easterlin Relative Cohort Size Hypothesis The standard of living you experience in late childhood is the base from which you evaluate your chances as an adult. If you can improve your income as an adult compared to your childhood level, you are more likely to marry early and have several children.

24. Demographic Transition: A Set of Transitions Mortality transition -shift from deaths at younger ages due to disease to deaths at older ages due to degenerative diseases. Fertility transition- the shift from natural (and high) to controlled (and low) fertility.

25. Demographic Transition: A Set of Transitions Age transition- social and economic reactions as societies adjust to constantly changing age distributions. Migration transition - Growth in the number of young people in rural areas will lead to an oversupply of young people looking for jobs, which encourages people to leave in search of economic opportunity.

26. Demographic Transition: A Set of Transitions Urban transition - begins with migration from rural to urban areas and morphs into urban �evolution� as most humans are born in, live in, and die in cities. Family and household transition - brought about by structural changes that accompany longer life, lower fertility, an older age structure, and urban instead of rural residence.

27. Transitions In the Demographic Transition�s Impact on Society