Innovation Dynamics : Industry & Technology Roadmapping IAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03 Joost Bonsen jpbonsen@alum.mit webdia.mit

1. InnovationDynamics:Industry & Technology RoadmappingIAP 2003 ~ 1/21/03Joost Bonsenjpbonsen@alum.mit.eduhttp://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/

2. Technology Roadmapping (TRM) • Tech-Industry-level of observation. & analysis • Broad faculty participation, Multi-Disciplinary • Covering the Emerging Technology spectrum • Viewing Business Implications & Context of Technology trends • Unifying, Big-Picture perspective • Long-term view, “futurecasting” • Neutral-ground for discussion among industry players & MIT research sponsors • Appealing to MBA, MEng, & industrially-inclined PhD students through 15.795 TRM Research Seminar

3. Technology Roadmapping Fall Semester 2002 Class Offering Emerging MIT Sloan research theme

4. Generalizing & Enriching Historic Technology & Demand Trends • Historical Efforts • Moore’s Law • Electronic Devices • Sematech Roadmap • Disk Drives • Ongoing • Optical Networking • Wireless • Future • New technologies …

5. 80786 Pentium Pro 80486 Pentium 80386 80286 8086 8080 4004 Moore’s Law Transistors per chip 109 ? 108 107 106 105 104 103 1970 1975 1980 1985 1990 1995 2000 2005 2010 Year Source: Joel Birnbaum, HP, Lecture at APS Centennial, Atlanta, 1999 Source: Fine, MIT

6. 295oK 77oK 4oK 2010 2005 2000 1995 1990 1980 1970 Roadmap for Electronic Devices Number of chip components 1018 Classical Age Quantum Age 1016 1014 1012 Quantum State Switch SIA Roadmap 1010 108 Historical Trend CMOS 106 104 102 101 100 10-1 10-2 10-3 Source: Fine, MIT Feature size (microns) Horst D. Simon

7. International Technology Roadmap for Semiconductors ‘99 Source: Fine, MIT

8. Disk Drive Development 1978-1991 Disk Drive Generation 14” 8” 5.25” 3.5” 2.5” Dominant Producer IBM Quantum Seagate Conner Conner Dominant Usage mainframe Mini-computer Desktop PC Portable PC Notebook PC Approx cost per Megabyte $750 $100 $30 $7 $2 From 1991-98, Disk Drive storage density increased by 60%/year while semiconductor density grew ~50%/year. Disk Drive cost per megabyte in 1997 was ~ $ .10 Source: Fine, MIT

9. Voice growth TDM line rategrowth Data growth Optical network capacity growth Optical Networking OC768 OC192 OC48 Capacity OC12 Time Source: Fine, MIT

10. DOUBLE DOUBLE HELIX HELIX Optical Technology Evolution: Navigating the Generations with an Immature Technology Dr. Yanming Liu, MIT & Corning Source: Fine, MIT

11. Supply Chain Volatility Amplification:“The Bullwhip Effect” Retailer Customer Distributor Factory Equipment Tier 1 Supplier Information lags Delivery lags Over- and underordering Misperceptions of feedback Lumpiness in ordering Chain accumulations SOLUTIONS: Countercyclical Markets Countercyclical Technologies Collaborative channel mgmt. (Cincinnati Milacron & Boeing) Source: Fine, MIT

12. % Chg. GDP % Chg. Vehicle Production Index % Chg. Net New Orders Machine Tool Industry 100 80 60 40 20 % Change, Year to Year 0 1961 1963 1965 1967 1969 1971 1973 1975 1977 1979 1981 1983 1985 1987 1989 1991 -20 -40 -60 -80 Supply Chain Volatility Amplification: Machine Tools at the tip of the Bullwhip "Upstream Volatility in the Supply Chain: The Machine Tool Industry as a Case Study," E. Anderson, C. Fine & G. Parker Production and Operations Management, Vol. 9, No. 3, Fall 2000, pp. 239-261. Source: Fine, MIT

13. What are TRM essentials? • Performance indicators • Innovations over time, trendlines • Physical limitations • Value Chains • Industry Structure …

14. Benefits of MIT Tech Roadmapping • Observing Value Chain Evolution over time • Language for discussion between management & technology world • Structured basis for interaction Cross Value Chains, between academia & industry, spanning basic research through application • Bridging between vertical “silos” of research – e.g. MicroPhotonics  LIDS  Media Lab  eBiz Center • Publishing Collaborative Tech Roadmaps • Risk goes down, Capital Investment goes up (generally)

15. Other Roadmapping Efforts • ITRS – International Technology Roadmapping for Semiconductors • http://public.itrs.net/ • Electricity Technology Roadmap • http://www.epri.com/corporate/discover_epri/roadmap/ • Steel Industry Technology Roadmap • http://www.steel.org/mt/roadmap/roadmap.htm • Lighting Technology Roadmap • http://www.eren.doe.gov/buildings/vision2020/ • Robotics & Intelligent Machines RM • http://www.sandia.gov/Roadmap/home.htm

16. Technology AND Industry Roadmaps • Not just focus on technologies • Which technology gets adopted is often determined at the Industry level • How technology is adopted (or not): what are economic & business issues

17. TRM Industry-Benefits • Economic context for technology decisions & investments • Lowering Risks for capital investments • Not Stalin’s 5-year plans – rather, coordination & collaboration, co-optition

18. Components of MIT’s Technology Roadmapping Effort (are at Least) • Business cycle dynamics (e.g., systems dynamics-like models of the bullwhip effect) • Industry structure dynamics (e.g., rigorous version of the double helix in Fine’s Clockspeed book) • Corporate strategy dynamics (e.g., dynamicize Porter-like analyses for players in the value chain) • Technology dynamics (e.g., the Semiconductor Industry Association's roadmap built around Moore's law) • Regulatory Policy Dynamics (e.g. Cross-National, Cross Sector Source: Fine, MIT

19. A B C D E F TRM Value Chain vs Component Dynamics

20. DOJ 1984 Telecom Act 1996 Broadband, Convergence Integral/ Vertical Modular/ Horizontal 1998 Niche Competitors Market Power (local carriers) High Complexity 2000 Pressure to Dis-Integrate Pressure to Integrate Economies of Scope (single provider, PTN) Organizational (and regulatory) Rigidities The Fine Helix Source: Carroll, Srikantiah & Wolters 2000; Telecom.LFM769.Spr00.ppt

21. Generalizing & Quantifying Clockspeed • Benefits to comparing between Industries • Looking at Fast Industry Dynamics • Cross-species Benchmarking • Quantify & Ultimately Model these Dynamics, improve theoretical understanding

22. Different Degrees of Industry Aggregation • Communications Roadmap • Optical Communications • MicroPhotonics • Wireless • Personal Area Networking • Cellular G3, G4, G5 • Medical Imaging • MRI • Functional MRI • Nanotechnology • Precision Engineering • AFM • Biological Engineering • Bacterial Robotics

23. Established Semiconductors Photonics Genomics / Proteomics / Celleomics Wireless MEMS Smart Materials Emerging Soft Lithography Neurotechnology Nanotechnology Organotechnology Biological Engineering Gerontechnology Autonomous Systems TRM Technology Domains(including, but not limited to…) MIT Emerging Technology Matrix: http://web.media.mit.edu/~davet/notes/emerging-tech-mit.html

24. MIT Strategic Technology Thrusts • Information Technologies = Ever more sophisticated computation & communication, leveraging mind & media. • Biomedical Technologies = Medical engineering, perfecting the health & life sciences. • Tiny Technologies = Investigating and fabricating ever smaller systems, at scales from micro thru nano • Complex Systems = Large scale, socio-political & econo-technological systems. • Developmental Innovations = Appropriate and leapfrog technologies for tackling challenges in developing & emerging regions

25. Richly Interwoven MIT Themes 1. InfoTech 2. BioTech 3. TinyTech 4. Complex Systems 5. Developmental Innovations

26. MIT Matrix http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm

27. http://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htmhttp://web.media.mit.edu/~jpbonsen/MIT-Emerging-Technology-Matrix.htm

28. Core Sloan Themes Leadership Innovation Technology Entrepreneurship & Strategy Dynamics Effective Organizations, Culture-Crafting Entre- & Intra-preneurial Leadership Transformative Innovations, Emerging Hard & Soft Technologies, Disruptive Challenges Dynamic, Networked Organizations Developmental Innovations, MicroFinance Global Business Strategy, Accelerating International Development Global

29. MIT Sloan Unifying Strategic Themes Unifying Strategic Themes Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

30. MIT Sloan Classic Disciplinary Strengths Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

31. MIT Sloan Matrix MIT Sloan Capabilities Sloan Matrix Unifying Strategic Themes Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

32. Innovation Leadership Global Sloan Matrix Unifying Strategic Themes Venture Finance Classic MIT Sloan Disciplinary Strengths

33. Mapping Sloan Faculty to MIT’sEmerging Strategic Tech Sectors

34. Faculty Interests @ Levels of Analysis Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea Economic Growth Global Supply Chains Global Strategy Market Differentiation Technology Roadmaps Technology Strategy Venture Capital Business Dynamics Entrepreneurial Culture Valuing IP Marketing- Engineering Links Group Dynamics Trader Psychology Buyer Decision-Making Inventor Ethos

35. Economic Growth Global Supply Chains Global Strategy Market Differentiation Technology Roadmaps Technology Strategy Venture Capital Business Dynamics Entrepreneurial Culture Valuing IP Marketing- Engineering Links Group Dynamics Trader Psychology Buyer Decision-Making Inventor Ethos Levels x Discipline Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea

36. Research ClustersAt Various Levels of Analysis… Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea Technology Roadmap Technology Venture Observatory OpenSource Initiative Virtual Customer Initiative Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases

37. Weaving together Interest Clusters at Various Levels of Analysis… Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea Technology Roadmap Technology Venture Observatory OpenSource Initiative Virtual Customer Initiative ION Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases

38. Global Development Observatory Venture Capital Observatory Creative Communities Observatory Social Network Observatory Decision Neuropsychology Lab Innovation Observatories:Further Possibilities Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea Technology Roadmap Technology Venture Observatory OpenSource Initiative Virtual Customer Initiative Emerging Tech-Biz Live Cases

39. Innovation Observatories:Technology Roadmapping Econ- omy Sector Firm Group Indi- vidual Geo- graphy Market/ Tech Organi- zation Theme Idea Technology Roadmapping

40. http://mph-roadmap.mit.edu/

41. Proposed MIT Communications Roadmap Consortium eBusiness, Oxygen, Media Lab LCS LIDS, RLE MPC, MTL ITC MATERIALS & PROCESS EQUIP COMP- ONENTS CONTENT & APPLICS EQUIPMENT MAKERS NETWORK OWNERS SERVICE PROVIDERS END USERS DEVICES • Business • Consumer • Gov’t • Military • Education • Medical • Etc.. Source: Prof. C. Fine, MIT

42. Why Value Tech Roadmapping? • Trends -- Statement of historic performance improvement and extrapolations into future • Consensus – Shared opinion about likely future developments • Commitment -- Shared willingness to pursue particular technologies • Co-Investment -- Basis for agreement on pre-competitive research funding • Understanding -- Method of understanding broader socio-economic context of broad technology trends

43. 15.795 Technology Roadmapping (An example Masters Research Seminar) Professor Charlie Fine, TA Joost Bonsen Fall 2002 This seminar will explore the purposes and development of Technology Roadmaps for systematically mapping out possible development paths for various technological domains and the industries that build on them. Data of importance for such roadmaps include rates of innovation, key bottlenecks, physical limitations, improvement trendlines, corporate intent, and value chain and industry evolutionary paths. The course will build on ongoing work on the MIT Communications Technology Roadmap project, but will explore other domains selected from Nanotechnology, Bio-informatics, Geno/Proteino/Celleomics, Neurotechnology, Imaging & Diagnostics, etc. Thesis and Special Project opportunities will be offered.

44. TRM Class Goals • Collaborative efforts between 1-3 students, MIT researchers, & Industry Sponsors • Across MIT research areas • Cross Industry Benchmarking • Partnered with Industrial Sponsors • Attract students passionate about technology sector, however broadly or narrowly defined • Committed to producing coherent & complete Tech Roadmap (Draft 1.0) during Fall Semester

45. Engaging Masters Students in MIT Sloan Research Agendae • Business school disconnect • Unfortunate and sub-optimal • We’re prototyping a new path • Help show that it works!

46. Seminars & Conferences • Part of 9 units is required attendance of relevant technology seminars throughout MIT. • Find them through http://web.mit.edu Google & so forth. Plus Word-of-Mouth.

48. High TRM Student Expectations • Serious commitment of time & interest • Literature review & substantial interviews • Attend talks & seminar series in that tech sector, that’s part of the course • E.g. http://web.mit.edu/mphotonics/www/sem-series.shtml • Data gathering & presentation smithing • Crafting a draft PPT & DOC by semesters end

49. TRM Academia Speakers(and Labs to Engage) • Marty Schmidt, MTL / MEMS • http://www-mtl.mit.edu/mtlhome/ • Bruce Rosen, Martinos / NeuroMRI • http://hst.mit.edu/martinos/ • Bob Brown & Alice Gast, MIT’s Research Directors • Ned Thomas, Soldier Nanotech • http://web.mit.edu/newsoffice/nr/2002/isnqa.html • Eric Lander, Whitehead / Genomics • http://www.wi.mit.edu/news/genome/lander.html • Bob Langer, Biomaterials, Drug Delivery • http://web.mit.edu/cheme/langerlab/langer.html • Victor Zue & Rod Brooks, LCS/AI Labs, Project Oxygen • http://www.lcs.mit.edu/ & http://www.ai.mit.edu/ & http://oxygen.lcs.mit.edu/ • Doug Lauffenberger, Biological Engineering • http://web.mit.edu/be/ • E. Sachs, 3D Printing • http://web.mit.edu/tdp/www/ • Neil Gershenfeld, Media Lab / Ctr Bits & Atoms • http://cba.mit.edu/ • Tom Knight, AI Lab / Computation & Biology • http://www.ai.mit.edu/people/tk/tk.html

50. TRM Seeds Working Collaborations w/ MIT Labs & Sponsors • Generalizing beyond MicroPhotonics Center & Communication Roadmap • Engaging Lab Directors as speakers in 15.795 TRM seminar • Ask them to speculate about the important trends in their areas & to proto-roadmap • What would they like? What would their sponsors like?