Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances

1. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chancesSpeaker: Julie López Working Paper Series on Organized Crime in Central AmericaDecember 14, 2010

2. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances • NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA • Genesis of corrupt and criminal structures. • Role of armed conflict Peace Accords change. • Infiltration of State institutions. • GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA • Geography of criminal activity. • Links with criminal activity in Guatemala. • Organization local and foreign of DTOs. 3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY • Human rights concerns. • Strategies to confront challenges posed by OC. • Political alliances and political will. • Role and relevance of foreign assistance. 4. CONCLUSIONS

3. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances • NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA • Genesis of corrupt and criminal structures. A + B + C = OC Local authorities Foreign OC network Local crime lord, Capo • 40s – Municipal • 60s – Military, police, customs, immigration. • Late 90s – Police, customs, immigration. • 80s – Colombians • Late 90s – Mexicans • (DTOs)

4. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances • 1960s • – Military territorial control 100%. • NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA • Role of armed conflict Peace Accords change. • 1980s: Armed Conflict • – Military training without quality control. • – First Colombian incursions. • – Free elections. Civilian government. • 1990s: Peace Accords • – Military release national control positions. • – New Police absorbs recycled officers linked to army. • – Clandestine intelligence apparatuses are not dismantled. • – Colombian DTOs decline. Mexicans rise. • 2000s • – Last military control posts released. • – Police training without quality control. • – Mexican DTOs proliferate.

5. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances • NATURE AND ROOTS OF OC IN GUATEMALA • Infiltration of State institutions: 15 years of civilian governments. Infiltration vs. “being part of.” OC and civilian work force. • Public office: Appointments & political favors – 1960s. • Corruption, ineptitude & organized crime. • Weak Civil Service Law. • Political parties. OC infiltrates the army and the police – 1970s • Sleepers & moles in military careers – 1980s • Weaknesses in police are exploited – 1990s • Misusing the military force – 2000s

6. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances • GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA • Geography of criminal activity. Illegal immigration & trafficking in persons. Car theft. Arms trafficking. Money transportation. Kidnapping and extortion. Drug trafficking.

7. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances • GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA • Links with criminal activity in Guatemala. Drug trafficking Car theft Gang activity, extortion, small-scale drug distribution. Illegal immigration & trafficking in persons Kidnapping Arms trafficking

8. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances • Foreign groups • GUATEMALA AND OC FROM SOUTH TO NORTH AMERICA • Organization local and foreign of DTOs. • Territory vs. routes. Sinaloa Cartel Zetas (former Gulf Cartel) • Local main groups Lorenzana family Mendoza family • Local small groups Leones / España / Javier Overdick family Turcios family Ramírez & Ortiz Chamalé

9. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances 3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY • Human rights concerns: • Localized policies to fight OC: Colombia & Mexico. • Increase of OC activity and inadequate responses. • Abuse of authority: Army & Police. • Old habits inherited from counterinsurgency. • Security forces ill-equipped to fight OC.

10. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances 3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY • Strategies to confront challenges posed by OC: • Installation of CICIG. • Police Reform & human rights activist Helen Mack. • Institutional strengthening in justice system. • Tax reform. • Social assistance programs in areas where basic services are scarce.

11. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances 3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY • Political alliances and political will: • National Accord for the Advancement of Security and Justice. • Complexity in reaching consensus in Congress. • Weak political party structure. • Political will: Scope and depth of commitments. • Long-term solutions: Government vs. State policies. • Liabilities in the proximity of 2011 elections.

12. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances 3. CAUSE AND EFFECT OF NEIGHBORING OC ACTIVITY • Role and relevance of foreign assistance: • Merida Plan. • U.S. technical and financial assistance. • Plight for more comprehensive assistance. • Proposals of focusing strongly on Central America. • Technical assistance from Mexico. • Regional cooperation between U.S., Mexico and Guatemala. • Roadblocks: Corruption, policies & political will.

13. Guatemala’s crossroads: Democratization of violence and second chances 4. CONCLUSIONS • Long-term policies will not be executed without political will. • Political will cannot be achieved without strengthening the political party system and formation policy. • Observing and strengthening the Civil Service Law could help reduce corruption levels in State institutions and contribute to curb OC influence. • Eradicating impunity and practicing fiscal transparency will be achievable in the extent that corruption is reduced. • As long as the police and the military are misused in terms of their capabilities, Guatemala will be unable to stop the influence and control of OC organizations.