EDEN Integrated Project proposal Emerging Diseases in a changing European Environment

1. EDEN Integrated Project proposal Emerging Diseases in a changing European Environment Florence Putterman

2. FP6 call “The aim is to identify, evaluate and catalogue European ecosystems and environmental conditions linked to global change, which can influence the spatial and temporal distribution and dynamics of pathogenic agents. A co-ordinated European approach is needed to provide predictive emergence and spread models including global and regional prevention, early warning, surveillance, and monitoring tools and scenarios. Co-ordination with international organizations and third world countries is essential.”

3. Keywords Coordinated European approach • The aim is to • identify, evaluate andcatalogue • European • ecosystems andenvironmental conditions • linked to global change and which can influence • the spatial distribution the temporal distribution and the dynamics • of pathogenic agents. • Predictive emergeance and spread models including the following tools and scenarios: • Global and Regional prevention • Early warning • Surveillance • Monitoring Coordination with international organisations and third world countries.

4. PUB/HEALTH & SOCIO ECONOMY AGRO/ECOLOGY Ecosystème Regional/local developpment landscapes economical / social conditions FOCI Climat Human activities Vectors hosts Pathogens PATHOGENIC CYCLE

5. ‘‘indicator diseases’’ • Tick-borne Disease–diseases already present in Europe that have shown significant recent increases in incidence, at least partly due to changes in human behaviour in relation to the environment. • Rodent-borne viruses (hanta, arena, cowpox) – widespread but under-reported diseases within Europe, with strong links with habitat and landscape structures. • Leishmanioses– persistent on the southern fringes of Europe and beyond (southern Mediterranean basin), with the potential to expand as environments change. • West Nile Virus –periodic and occasionally severe local outbreaks, especially on the eastern fringes of Europe, currently showing strong associations with landscape patterns. • Malaria – an ancient scourge of Europe, currently now on her southern and eastern fringes, with the potential for re-emergence following environmental changes. • Maladies Africaines – new strains of West Nile Virus and new diseases such as Rift Valley Fever may be introduced to Europe from tropical regions linked by bird and other (e.g. traded livestock) migratory routes to Europe.

6. A common approach for all Sub-Projects

7. Rodent borne diseases Tick borne diseases West Nile Virus African Platform Leishmaniasis Malaria

8. Rodent borne diseases Tick borne diseases West Nile Virus Disease Modelling Data Management LR Spatial Modelling Environmental Change Biodiversity African Platform Leishmaniasis Malaria

9. Ecosystem components studies WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania West Nile Africa Platform WP2: Vector Pattern Process WP3: Public Health Pattern Process WP4: Animal Reservoir Pattern Process WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling Pattern Process

10. Data management & information systems Low resolution spatial modeling Disease transmission modeling Environmental change monitoring Biodiversity Ecosystem components studies Horizontal integration WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania West Nile Africa Platform WP2: Vector WP6 Horizontal activities Pattern Process WP3: Public Health WP6.1 Data management Pattern Process WP4: Animal Reservoir WP6.2 RS tools Pattern Process WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling WP6.3 PhD program Pattern Process

11. Data management & information systems Low resolution spatial modeling Disease transmission modeling Environmental change monitoring Biodiversity Ecosystem components studies Emergence & spread models Horizontal integration WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania West Nile Africa Platform WP2: Vector WP6 Horizontal activities Pattern Process WP3: Public Health WP6.1 Data management WP7 Overall Integration: Tools & scenarios Pattern Process WP4: Animal Reservoir WP6.2 RS tools Pattern Process WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling WP6.3 PhD program Pattern Process

12. Data management & information systems Low resolution spatial modeling Disease transmission modeling Environmental change monitoring Biodiversity Ecosystem components studies Emergence & spread models Horizontal integration WP1: Landscape, habitat, climate Malaria Tick borne Rodent borne Leishmania West Nile Africa Platform WP2: Vector WP6 Horizontal activities Pattern Process WP3: Public Health WP6.1 Data management WP7 Overall Integration: Tools & scenarios Pattern Process WP4: Animal Reservoir WP8: Training, Dissemination, Management & Coordination WP6.2 RS tools Pattern Process WP5: Individual disease Data management & Modelling WP6.3 PhD program Pattern Process

13. Project strategy HEALTH/ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH of model diseases in a variety of representative environmental settings TOOLS and POLICIES Characterise (new) transmission cycles Catalogue of ecosystems and environmental conditions at risk: “emerging disease hot-spots” Identify factors triggering emergence and spread Develop predictive emergence and spread models Develop early warning, surveillance and monitoring tools Identify environmental changes likely to favour emergence Contribute to decision support and policy making

14. Project strategy HEALTH/ENVIRONMENT RESEARCH of model diseases in a variety of representative environmental settings TOOLS and POLICIES Characterise (new) transmission cycles Catalogue of ecosystems and environmental conditions at risk: “emerging disease hot-spots” EDEN strategy document integrated ‘trans-disciplinary’ health/environment approach. Identify factors triggering emergence and spread Develop predictive emergence and spread models Develop early warning, surveillance and monitoring tools Identify environmental changes likely to favour emergence Contribute to decision support and policy making

15. EDEN strategy document A key deliverableproduced by the Steering Committee and with back-up from the advisory group, specialists with internationally recognised skills in (i) biodiversity monitoring and assessment, (ii) environmental change detection, (iii) disease modelling, remote sensing, image processing and interpretation, and (iv) public health. The EDEN strategy document will propose an innovative integrated ‘trans-disciplinary’ health/environment approach for the unified analysis of the various EDEN outputs. The development of such an approach will be a major breakthrough of EDEN.

16. 1 2 3 4 5 Objectives timeframe SD H&E T&P Dissemination SD: EDEN Strategy document H&E: Health/Environment research T&P: Tools and policies

17. External sources EDEN Indicator Diseases Individual diseases models EDEN Steering Committee Advisory group integrated models health-environment DMEWS Disease Monitoring & Early Warning Systems Knowledge Flow

18. conclusion Annex1, chap 4.1 Contribution to the objectives of the sub-priority “EDEN’s bold ambition is to enable a multi-DMEWS system on a solid scientific foundation running from the theoretical understanding of the reasons for the emergence of new diseases in vulnerable ecosystems, through an understanding of complex disease dynamics, to the practical application of such knowledge to disease control. We do not know the precise shape of this future yet: EDEN presents a chance to Europe to invest in some of the ‘brightest and best’ researchers to ensure success with this vision, and in doing so to advance significantly the state-of-the-art and put Europe firmly at the forefront of DMEWS.”