Big City Density and Sun Belt Sprawl

1. Big City Density and Sun Belt Sprawl America’s Major Metropolitan Areas in the 2000s

2. Agenda • Recapping A Decade in a Few Minutes • Metro Areas, the Census and American Community Survey • Population Changes in the 2000s • Differences on • Transportation • Income • Poverty

3. During the 2000s… • America grew in several ways* • Suburbs • 12% population growth • Central cities • 7% population growth • Some see an economic revitalization in areas beyond “Downtown” • More than twice as many people live in suburbs vs. central cities *Sources: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map , New York Times, Mapping America: Every City, Every Block and SustainableCitiesCollective (blog), “New Census numbers confirm the resurgence of cities”, December 15, 2010,

4. During the 2000s… • Mid-decade economic boom driven by real estate… which busts in 2007-2008 • Properties de-value, foreclosures rise • Greatest impact felt in • Several of the fastest growing metro areas • “Exurbs” – areas relatively far from central cities • “Drive ‘til You Qualify”

5. Escalating Gas Prices

6. During the 2000s… • Budgets are squeezed • Gas prices drive up transportation costs (among other things) • Declining property values and ballooning mortgage interest rates • Poverty rate grows faster in suburbs than in central cities* • Real wages fall more among suburban households* *Source: Brookings Institute, State of Metropolitan America Map

7. Major Cities Are Dense, Sun Belt Less So

8. High Growth Rate in Sun Belt

9. Metro Area Trends • Differences between higher density metros of America’s major cities and lower density, high growth metros in the Sun Belt • Transportation • Primary commuting alternatives to driving alone • Income levels • Poverty rates • County-level trends within these two sets

10. 54 Metro Areas with 1 Million People or Greater* *2000 Census based on 1999 MSA definitions, or 2007-2009 American Community Survey based on 2003 CBSA definitions

11. Change in Metro Area Definition • Federal Office of Management and Budget (OMB) defines Metro Areas • Revised in 2003* • Previously – Metropolitan Statistical Area (MSA) • Commuting relationship between central city and surrounding counties • New – Core Based Statistical Area (CBSA) • Examine commuting patterns between counties • Urban core – ‘central city’ or several communities • # of metropolitan areas grew from 280 to 362 • Suburbs of large MSAs split off • Areas are smaller, but likely more dense • Pop density figures in 2012 when metro area data for 2010 Census is released *Source - Office of Management and Budget, Standards for Defining Metropolitan and Micropolitan Statistical Areas; Notice, Federal Register, Vol. 65, No. 249, 12/27/00

12. 1999 (MSA) and 2003 (CBSA) Metro Areas

13. 2000 Census and 2007-2009 ACS • 2000 Census • Entire population • 1/6 of households –survey on housing and economic status (discontinued for 2010 in favor of ACS) • Metro Area statistics • CBSA – population count • MSA – population density and characteristics • American Community Survey (ACS) • Surveys 2 million households each year, official since 2005 • Similar to longer-form 2000 census survey • 3-year average reduces margin of error • Info on geographic areas with pop. of 20K or greater (annual info for areas with pop. of 65K or greater) • Limitation - economic and social change during time period • CBSA - all metro area data • Overcame differences with 2000 Census by looking at county-level data

14. Population Changes In the 2000s

15. High Growth Rate in Sun Belt

16. Strong Growth – Suburbs of Sun Belt Metros

17. Strong Growth – Suburbs of Sun Belt Metros…

18. …Which Are Low Density In 2000, Indicating Sprawl

19. Differences between Higher and Lower Density Metros

20. Rail Offers Transportation Alternative in Major Cities

21. Less Public Transit Use in Sun Belt…

22. …So Carpooling is More Prevalent

23. Denser Major Cities Are Among Highest HH Incomes

24. Sun Belt Tends To Have Lower Per-Capita Income

25. Higher Poverty Rates Common In Sun Belt

26. Poverty Strong In Sun Belt Cities and Suburbs

27. Incomes Also Lower In Sun Belt Suburbs

28. Suburban Poverty Grows At A Faster Rate

29. Suburban Poverty Grows At A Faster Rate

30. In Summary • Denser metro areas of our major cities may have slower growth rates, but • Higher incomes • Lower poverty rates • Extensive rail networks help lessen auto-dependency • Sun Belt – High growth, lower density • Sprawling • Auto-dependent • Lower incomes • Growing suburban poverty • As transportation costs increase, could residents find themselves isolated from jobs? • Some regions taking action

31. Sun Belt Regions Adding Transit • Sprawling development patterns limits reach of these systems *Source:Federal Transit Administration, National Transit Database, Glossary; Websites of transportation agencies in above-mentioned cities and regions

32. Fed Policy Initiatives • HUD, DOT and EPA Partnership for Sustainable Communities1 • Grants to 45 regions in December, 2010, including agencies in Austin, Greensboro and Houston • Development of joint sustainability, affordable housing and transit plans 1Partnership for Sustainable Communities Website, www.sustainablecommunities.gov

33. Thank You!