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www.pinnacle-advisory.com

www.pinnacle-advisory.com. Historic Perspective. September 11, 2001. Fear of Travel Economic Recession. MOTT Survey. 2001 Operator Forecasted Declines as a direct result of 9-11. Boston/Cambridge Occupancy –6 Points Avg Rate –5%. Suburban Boston Occupancy –7 Points Avg Rate – 5%.

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www.pinnacle-advisory.com

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  1. www.pinnacle-advisory.com

  2. Historic Perspective

  3. September 11, 2001 • Fear of Travel • Economic Recession

  4. MOTT Survey 2001 Operator Forecasted Declines as a direct result of 9-11 Boston/Cambridge Occupancy –6 Points Avg Rate –5% SuburbanBoston Occupancy –7 Points Avg Rate – 5%

  5. Suburban Boston 2001

  6. Source: Smith Travel Research

  7. Source: Smith Travel Research

  8. Source: Smith Travel Research

  9. Source: Smith Travel Research

  10. Source: Smith Travel Research

  11. Source: Smith Travel Research

  12. Suburban Boston 2001 Occupancy: 62% (Down 11 Points) Average Rate: $109 (Down 2 Percent) RevPAR: $68 (Down 17 Percent)

  13. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  14. Boston / Cambridge 2001

  15. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  16. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  17. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  18. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  19. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  20. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  21. Boston / Cambridge 2001 Occupancy: 69% (Down 9.5 Points) Average Rate: $186.49 (Down 7 Percent) RevPAR: $128.57 (Down 18 Percent)

  22. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  23. Suburban Boston 2002

  24. Factors Affecting The Suburban Boston Lodging Market In 2002 New Supply Still Significant (6% vs 8%) Citywide Conventions Worse (15 vs. 17) The Economy Worse Than Expected

  25. Suburban Boston 2002 Occupancy: Up Two Points to 64 Percent Average Rate: Down 2 Percent to $107.30 RevPAR: Down 1 Percent to $68.73

  26. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  27. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  28. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  29. Boston / Cambridge 2002

  30. Factors Affecting The Boston/Cambridge Market In 2002 Supply Changes Citywide Conventions Non-Citywide Group Demand Corporate Demand Leisure Travelers

  31. Supply Changes No Change In Short-Term 2.4 Percent Increase in 2001 4.0 Percent increase in 2002 Projects: Hampton Inn Commonwealth Hotel Nine-Zero Embassy Suites Renovation of Ritz Carlton

  32. Citywide Conventions 15 Citywides (Down From 17) Loss Of Seybold will impact April Now 2Q Looks Weak (In addition to 1Q)

  33. Non-Citywide Group Demand In-House Group Pace is now off Pace Improves in 2H 02 (with economy?) Cambridge pace is not expected to improve

  34. Corporate Demand Slow Recovery Lack of compression from groups will limit ability to drive rate No Forecasted Economic Growth Until 2H ‘02

  35. Leisure Demand “All About Rate” Increased Supply in Suburbs Decline In International Travel

  36. Boston / Cambridge 2002 Occupancy: Up 1 Point to 70 Percent Average Rate: Up 1 Percent to $189 RevPAR: Up 3 Percent to $131

  37. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  38. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  39. Source: Pinnacle Advisory Group

  40. www.pinnacle-advisory.com

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