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A Deeper Look at the Proportionality – Turnout Nexus

A Deeper Look at the Proportionality – Turnout Nexus. by Peter Selb. Turnout: problem (1). Does the electoral system influence turnouts? Evidence for higher turnout in proportional representation Consensus in political science. Turnout: problem (2).

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A Deeper Look at the Proportionality – Turnout Nexus

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  1. A Deeper Look at the Proportionality – Turnout Nexus by Peter Selb

  2. Turnout: problem (1) • Does the electoral system influence turnouts? • Evidence for higher turnout in proportional representation • Consensus in political science

  3. Turnout: problem (2) • Why does proportional representation foster turnout? • 1. hypothesis: proportional representation means more parties 3→ increased choice for voters → higher incentive to vote • 2. hypothesis: majoritarian systems have districts with high expected margins → outcome in the district seems to be clear → less incentive to vote and less incentive for parties to mobilize voters

  4. Turnout: problem (3) • First hypothesis has been falsified • empirical evidence for the contrary: more parties decrease turnout • Second hypothesis not sufficiently empirical tested yet

  5. Research design (1) • Aim of research: empirical testing of 2° hypothesis • Basic considerations: • a deeper look into districts • Comparison of district turnouts dependent on competition

  6. Research design (2) • Main theory: • Pivotal Voter Model • Voting causes costs and benefits. Benefits for the voter are higher if his vote makes a bigger difference to the result • Empirical difficult to confirm • Pivotal Elites Model • Parties have higher incentive to use their limited resources to mobilize voters in district with narrow margins

  7. Research design (3) • Operationalization (1): • Competition on average lower in Single Member Districts because it is unpromising to catch up to a clear leading candidate • Competition on average higher in Multi Member Districts because the decisive margin for the marginal seat is lower therefore easier to catch up

  8. Research design (4) • Operationalization (2) • Putting together the theory of Pivotal Elites model and the assumption of the last slide: As bigger the margin in a district in majoritarian voting system as lower turnout in this district.

  9. Research design (5) • Operationalization (3) • Counterfactual hypothesis: The impact of the margin in a Multi Member District (proportional representation) is significantly lower

  10. Research design (6) • Operationalization (4) • Threshold of exclusion boundaries competition in a system: • SMD: maximum possible vote share without winning a seat is 50% • Other districts: less, formula 1/(Seats+1)

  11. Research design (7) • Operationalization (5) • Hypothesis: As higher the threshold of exclusion as lower the average turnout and as higher the variation of turnouts over the district

  12. Data (1) • CSES Dataset • Provides data also for districts • Available: 3194 electoral districts observed in 31 national elections in 20 countries

  13. Data (2) • Available district variables • B4001 >>> NUMBER OF SEATS IN DISTRICT • B4002 >>> NUMBER OF CANDIDATES IN DISTRICT • B4003 >>> NUMBER OF PARTY LISTS IN DISTRICT • B4004_A >>> PERCENT VOTE IN DISTRICT - PARTY A • B4004_B >>> PERCENT VOTE IN DISTRICT - PARTY B • B4004_C >>> PERCENT VOTE IN DISTRICT - PARTY C • B4004_D >>> PERCENT VOTE IN DISTRICT - PARTY D • B4004_E >>> PERCENT VOTE IN DISTRICT - PARTY E • B4004_F >>> PERCENT VOTE IN DISTRICT - PARTY F • B4005 >>> TURNOUT IN DISTRICT

  14. Data (3) • Data problems (1) • Data only include final results in the districts, the model refers to the expected results in districts. • But: Assuming expected results are on average as final results of the election

  15. Data (4) • Data problems (2) • Intervening Variables • Compulsory voting seems to balance the effect of the voting system • Exclusion from this analysis

  16. Data (5) • Empirical model of district turnout • Feeding formulas with empirical dataset data and assumptions.

  17. Findings • 1. Threshold of exclusion decreases average turnout in districts and increases the turnout variance in the districts • 2. Low district margins lead significantly to higher turnouts in the districts

  18. Paper criticism • Clear research paper: clear research question, clear hypothesis, why operationalization with two measurements? • Big effort for a comparable banal result?

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