Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of Extreme Geohazards

1. Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of Extreme Geohazards GHCP Splinter Meeting at the Annual Meeting of the European Geoscience Union April 25, 2012, 8:30 - 12:00; Room SM5

2. Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of Extreme Geohazards Purpose of the Meeting - Recognize/review two major milestones for the GHCP: - Road Map and - Declaration - Discuss activities deriving from these milestones leading to disaster risk reduction - Emphasize the importance of extreme events - Link the GHCP better to relevant GEO Work Plan Task activities

3. Disaster Risk Reduction: Addressing the Scientific and Societal Challenges of Extreme Geohazards Wednesday, April 25, 2012 0830 - 1000: Block I 0830 - 0840: Welcome, purpose of the meeting (Plag, Marsh) 0840 - 0900: GHCP Road Map and Declaration (Marsh) 0900 - 0940: Discussion: Implementation of the Road Map and Declaration 0940 - 1000: Seth Stein: Lessons from Tohoku - why hazard maps often fail and what to do about it 1000 - 1030: Coffee Break 1030 - 1200: Block II 1030 - 1050: Towards a global geohazards information system for disaster risk reduction (brief introduction by Plag and discussion) 1050 - 1110: White Paper on extreme geohazards (brief introduction by Plag and discussion) 1110 - 1145: GHCP and GEO Work Plan implementation (Focus on DI-01, Components leads) 1145 - 1200: AOB, next meeting, action items (Marsh, Plag)

4. GEO, GEOSS ...

5. The Group on Earth Observations Ad hocGroup on Earth Observations established in 2003 by G8 in response to 2002 Johannesburg Summit on Sustainable Development; Mandat: Develop an Implementation Plan for a coodinated Earth observation system; After eighteen months and many meetings (including 2 Summits on EO): 10 Year Implementation Plan for the Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) was available. Vision: A future where decisions are informed by Earth observations

6. The Group on Earth Observations Group on Earth Observations (GEO) established at the EO Summit in February 2005 in Brussels One major objective: Establish a coordinated and sustained Global Earth Observation System of Systems (GEOSS) to enhance informed decision making (in nine Societal Benefit Areas) Participation: By now ~90 Member Countries and >60 Participating Organizations

7. The Group on Earth Observations

8. The Group on Earth Observations Main Objectives: • Improve and Coordinate Earth Observations • Provide easier and more access to data • Facilitate societal benefits of EO through use and applications • Build capacity in the use of EO Key Documents: 10 Year Implementation Plan Nine Societal Benefit Areas (SBAs) GEO Strategic Targets: For each SBA and cross-cutting Data Sharing Principles Work Plan: Defines Tasks; is annually updated

9. Discussion of Road Map and Declaration

10. GEOSS Strategic Targets GEOSS STRATEGIC TARGET OF THE DISASTER SBA: Enable the global coordination of observing and information systems to support all phases of the risk management cycle associated with hazards (mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery). This will be achieved through: - more timely dissemination of information from globally-coordinated systems for monitoring, predicting, risk assessment, early warning, mitigating, and responding to hazards at local, national, regional, and global levels; - development of multi-hazard and/or end-to-end approaches, as appropriate to meet the needs for disaster risk reduction, preparedness and response in relevant hazard environments; - supporting the implementation of the priorities for action identified in the Hyogo Framework for Action 2005-2015: Building the resilience of nations and communities to disasters (HFA).

11. The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP) Geohazards are a challenge for a growing global population: In many regions, geohazards are a major threat to society, costing lives, disrupting infrastructure and destroying livelihoods. Urban settlements sprawling into hazards areas rapidly increased the disasters caused by these hazards. 11

12. The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP) Managing the risk and reducing disasters: The concept of the risk management cycle with the four phases of mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery captures elegantly the necessary steps to reduce the number and scale of disasters. Without significantly improved risk management, societies will continue to face a growing number of major disasters that require international support actions. Integrating mitigation and adaptation into planning and development of settlements and infrastructure long before a specific hazardous event occurs is a prerequisite for resilience. All this depends on sufficient Earth observations supporting hazard detection and mapping, early warning, and disaster assessment. 12

13. The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP) Heritage

14. The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP) • Support from UNESCO, IUGS, ESF; • Builds on the work of Geohazards Theme of IGOS-P and three International Workshops on Geohazards; • Developed a Road Map; mainly during a Workshop in Jan. 2010 at UNESCO, Paris; • Road Map impacted the Disaster Task DI-01. • Organized European Science Foundation Conference on extreme geohazards: Declaration on extreme geohazards

15. The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP) The GHCP Road Map, which was agreed during the GHCP workshop jointly organized with GEO and UNESCO in January 2010 in Paris, has the main goal to utilize Earth observations for the support of the full risk management cycle. It details actions geared to achieve the strategic goal of the GHCP by 2020. 15

16. The GeoHazards Community of Practice (GHCP) GEO's goal for the Disasters Societal Benefit Area (SBA) is “reducing loss of life and property from natural and human-induced disasters.” GEOSS STRATEGIC TARGET OF THE DISASTER SBA: Enable the global coordination of observing and information systems to support all phases of the risk management cycle associated with hazards (mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery). STRATEGIC TARGET OF THE GHCP: By 2020 put in place all building blocks for comprehensive monitoring of geohazards and the provision of timely information on spatio-temporal characteristics, risks, and occurrence of geohazards, in support of all phases of the risk management cycle (mitigation and preparedness, early warning, response, and recovery), and as a basis for increased resilience and disaster reduction.

17. ESF/COST Conference

18. ESF/COST Conference Declaration on Extreme Geohazards and the Reduction of Disaster Risks We, the Participants of the ESF-COST High-Level Research Conference on “Understanding Extreme Geohazards: The Science of the Risk Management Cycle,” declare the need that * … * data relevant to the monitoring and understanding of geohazards be shared freely in support of geohazard research and disaster risk reduction; * interdisciplinary research programmes be developed which integrate the natural and social sciences to address all phases of the disaster risk management cycle; * a dedicated outreach and education programme be developed to support a change in the citizens' and authorities' perception of the risks associated with major geohazards and to help recognize the challenges these hazards pose to society; * information on geohazards be disseminated so that relevant governmental bodies and citizens can make informed and transparent decisions on where to build what and how, and where to reduce the vulnerability of existing buildings to future hazards; * ...

19. ESF/COST Conference Declaration on Extreme Geohazards and the Reduction of Disaster Risks * ... * state-of-the-art products be developed to help policy makers developing legislation for risk reduction and planning for a safe built environment; * ... * international collaboration with local experts be fostered, to help regions with poorly developed governance mitigate disaster risks; * low-technology response and rescue capabilities be improved, particularly in developing countries, so that disaster-impacted populations can be reached more rapidly; * a community-based white paper, addressing the scientific and societal challenges of increasing disaster risk due to extreme geohazards, be prepared and distributed to funding agencies and governmental and intergovernmental bodies; and * a process for an integrated assessment of disaster risk due to geohazards be established and the results of this assessment be articulated through an authoritative scientific body (like IPCC).

20. Towards a Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction - Supersites Initiative (2007) - Tandem Centers (2010) - GGIS-DRR (2012)

21. Supersites Initative Original proposal: 2007 Frascati Declaration ... recommend * to stimulate an international and intergovernmental effort to monitor and study selected reference sites by establishing open access to relevant datasets according to GEO principles to foster the collaboration between all various partners and end-users

22. Supersites Initative Original proposal: 2007 Frascati Declaration ... recommend * to stimulate an international and intergovernmental effort to monitor and study selected reference sites by establishing open access to relevant datasets according to GEO principles to foster the collaboration between all various partners and end-users Implementation: - focused on limited data types; - mainly serves the data needs of science; - event-based sites more data and attention. Challenges: - broaden data sharing; - link science and end-users; - focus on the prepare phase.

23. Supersites Initative

24. Implementation of the GHCP Road Map will be achieved by developing very few carefully selected core centers, which will provide focal points for a large geographical region where all building blocks of a value chain from observations to end users can be linked together and applied to the phases of the risk management cycle relevant for this region. 26

25. Alan Edwards, 2012

26. Challenge: Developing today the concepts for the technology of tomorrow What are the basic characteristics of an information and management system based on tomorrow's technology? - globally available and accessible - processing resources where the data sources are - scalable - best practice and workflows available to everybody - access to base datasets - updated in real-time - information density and quality increased through crowd sourcing

27. GGIS-DRR Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction FUNCTIONS: - support for preparedness and improved planning through information on hazard probabilities, vulnerability, and exposed assets based on EOs (space-borne, air-borne, in situ); - support for early warning through information on hazard occurrence; - support for response through intelligence on hazard extent and impacts and intelligence for response planning; - support for recovery through improved risk assessments as input for risk-based post-event planning; - throughout all phases, improvements of static data based on crowd sourcing; - integration of time-variable data related to (increased) hazard probability, changes in exposure and vulnerability; - visualization of potential future and past hazards for increased awareness and risk perception; - basis for community planning; - interactive tools for users at all levels.

28. GGIS-DRR Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction IMPACTS: - equal opportunity: urban and rural; developed and developing; - global availability of tools; best practices; - “virtual” tandem centers, on a global basis; - support focus on most relevant hazards; - change risk perception; - support improved decision making to access to information, intelligence; - utilize new data sources, including crowd sourcing; - facilitate community planning; - standardization, interoperability, data sharing

29. GGIS-DRR Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction PARTICIPATION: - Task Team of DI-01 and GHCP; - GEO Participating Organizations (POs); - international and national agencies; - non-governmental organizations; - links to national and regional agencies through Member Countries of GEO; - re-insurances; - private industry

30. GGIS-DRR Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction IMPLEMENTATION: - provision of key resources through developed countries; - web-based access provides global availability; - scalable; - community support (from state/national agencies, research groups, use cases) - provides best practices available for others

31. GGIS-DRR Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction POPULATION THROUGH USE CASES Initial examples: Strain maps (global: UNR; regional: Nevada) Shakemaps (California, Nevada) Fault database (Nevada) Landslide data (Italy) Volcano (Italy and Democratic Republic of Congo) Land use planning based on hazard assessments (tbd) Tsunamis (tbd)

32. GGIS-DRR Global Geohazards Information System for Disaster Risk Reduction FUNDING OPTIONS Worldbank, EC, national (USA: NSF/NASA/USAID, ...) Belmont Forum.

33. GGIS-DRR

34. White Paper on Extreme Geohazards

35. White Paper on Extreme Geohazards Declaration on Extreme Geohazards and the Reduction of Disaster Risks We, the Participants of the ESF-COST High-Level Research Conference on “Understanding Extreme Geohazards: The Science of the Risk Management Cycle,” declare the need that * … * a community-based white paper, addressing the scientific and societal challenges of increasing disaster risk due to extreme geohazards, be prepared and distributed to funding agencies and governmental and intergovernmental bodies;

36. White Paper on Extreme Geohazards Authors/Editors: H.-P. Plag, S. Stein, S. Marsh, …, community Contents: - How should society confront extreme geohazards? - What are extreme geohazards? What are the public health impacts? - How do they compare to other extreme hazards (impacts from space, solar storms, extreme floods and droughts, ...) - What do we know about probabilities at the upper end and what are the uncertainties? - Can we reduce the uncertainties? Ability to deal with uncertainties • Consequences of scientific statements - cost/benefits - What are the major vulnerabilities and risks? - How can we reduce vulnerability and risks?

37. GHCP and Work Plan Implementation

38. GEO, GEOSS and the GHCP • GEO Strategic Target focuses on disaster reduction; • Data sharing supports hazards and data related research and applications; • GEOSS services and pilots support disaster reduction; • DI-01: Addresses several aspects of the risk management cycle; • Architecture Implementation Project has a use case on Disaster; • GHCP Road Map addresses all four phases of the risk management cycle; • The GGIS-GRR will integrate many of the current activities and address the Road Map implementation comprehensively

39. GEO Work Plan 2012-2015 DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction C1: Disaster Management Systems C2: Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk Assessment C3: Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Assessment C4: Global Wildland Fire Information System C5: Regional End-to-End Pilots

40. GEO Work Plan 2012-2015 DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction C1: Disaster Management Systems Leads (tentative) EC (GMES), South Africa (CSIR), USA (NASA), CEOS, ESA, UNITAR, UNOOSA Priority Actions • Improve access to information provided through key disaster management mechanisms. • Make information related to environmental risk and vulnerability easily accessible through a centralized platform. • Enhance the use of satellite data for disaster management. • Integrate baseline geographic information and reference maps with real-time data from satellite or in-situ platforms. • Review global and regional disaster risk management systems. • Perform a gap analysis considering data, metadata, systems, and capacity.

41. GEO Work Plan 2012-2015 DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction C2: Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk Assessment Leads (tentative) EC (OneGeology), Italy (EUCentre), South Africa (DST), USA (Univ. of Miami, USGS), EPOS, ESA, FDSN Priority Actions • Apply a fully integrated approach to geohazards monitoring, based on collaboration among existing networks and international initiatives, using new instrumentation such as in-situ sensors, and aggregating space (RADAR, optical imagery) and ground-based (subsurface) observations. • Support the establishment of Supersites and Natural Laboratories. Provide an e-infrastructure allowing easy data access (space & in-situ)

42. GEO Work Plan 2012-2015 DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction C3: Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Assessment Leads (tentative) EC (DG-ECHO, JRC), Germany (DLR), IOC Priority Actions • Support tsunami early warning. • Promote real-time data sharing in particular seismic and sea-level (deep-ocean and tide-gauge data). Standardize procedures, terminology, communication and evacuation practices. Optimize tsunami evacuation plans through the use of damage scenarios and traffic flow models. • Support tsunami hazards assessment. Enable and develop a global tsunami hazard map through provision of bathymetry and topography data

43. GEO Work Plan 2012-2015 DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction C4: Global Wildland Fire Information System Leads (tentative) Canada (CFS), EC (JRC), Germany (GFMC), South Africa (CSIR), USA (NOAA, USDA), GTOS (GOFC-GOLD) Priority Actions • Support the establishment of an operational Global Wildland Fire Early Warning System (GWFEWS). • Improve fire management cooperation and regional coordination with local systems. • Support and promote the use of satellite data for wildfire risk assessment and damage assessment • Develop longer-term predictions of fire-danger based on advanced numerical weather models (in coordination with WE-01) • Expand fire-danger rating systems to countries that do not have the financial nor institutional capacity to develop their own system

44. GEO Work Plan 2012-2015 DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction C5: Regional End-to-End Pilots Leads (tentative) Canada (CSA), USA (NASA, USAID), CEOS Priority Actions (synthesis) • Implement regional and cross-cutting end-to-end projects. Develop natural-risk decision-support tools and applications supporting the full cycle of disaster management, especially for developing countries. • Identify locations of tandem centers of excellence in developed and developing regions and initiate the formation of centers

45. GEO Work Plan 2012-2015 DI-01 Informing Risk Management and Disaster Reduction C1: Disaster Management Systems C2: Geohazards Monitoring, Alert, and Risk Assessment: Supersites C3: Tsunami Early Warning and Hazard Assessment C4: Global Wildland Fire Information System C5: Regional End-to-End Pilots: Tandem Centers

46. Any Other Business: GHCP and URR

47. Any Other Business: GHCP and URR