Freight & passenger growth on the West Midlands rail network. - Implications for capacity

1. Freight & passenger growth on the West Midlands rail network.- Implications for capacity 212074_p18

2. Current passenger off-peak (trains per hour, sum of both directions) Stafford Rugeley Lichfield Cannock Tamworth Wolverhampton Walsall Aston Water Orton New St Nuneaton Moor St BhamInt Stourbridge Kings Norton Rugby Camp Hill Coventry

3. Current passenger in 6-hour off-peak

4. Plus CENTRO-aspired pass. services Rugeley Cannock Tamworth Aldridge Walsall Water Orton New St Nuneaton Moor St Kings Norton Camp Hill

5. Scenarios – Freight demand • Forecasts from MDST study for Network Rail (Freight Market Study) • Current, 2023/4, 2033/4, 2043/4 (Focus on 2033/4) • Increased fuel & wages: Bad for road = good for rail • Additional rail-connected warehousing nationally • 20% increase in operational days per week and intermodal train length with equivalent improvements for road • No Avonmouth deep sea container port • Locally, assumptions include: • South Staffs rail-connected warehousing • Cannock intermodal terminal • Rugeley partially converts to biomass • No Bescot intermodal rail freight interchange • Key results • Significant freight growth in / through West Midlands • Particularly high growth in intermodal • Coal declines and partly replaced by biomass

6. Current freight paths: 6-hour off-peak Rugeley PS Sutton Park Kingsbury & Birch Coppice Bescot Hams Hall Jaguar Daw Mill Lawley St

7. 2033/4 freight paths: 6-hour off-peak Rugeley PS Featherstone / Four Ashes Cannock Sutton Park Kingsbury & Birch Coppice Bescot Hams Hall Jaguar Daw Mill Lawley St

8. Current passenger + freight 6 hr OP

9. 2033/4 passenger + freight

10. Future congestion hotspots Ryecroft junction Kingsbury junction Whitacre junction Aston Galton junction Water Orton Soho S junc Bordesley junction Stoke Works junc (Bromsgrove)

11. Unconstrained growth:demand for paths vs capacity • Forecast demand for train paths during daytime off peak 6 hours given unconstrained freight paths plus (aspired) passenger services • Train path volumes shown are sum in all directions through junctions • Theoretical Max capacity assumes existing Timetable Planning Rules • “Junction simple-CUI” (JSCUI) calculations imply ‘stand-alone’ junctions

12. Congestion hotspots - commentary • Those currently considered very busy (JSCUI%) max. out at 60% utilization (impact of one junction on the next): • Water Orton (60%) Aston (47%) Galton J (51%) & Soho SJ (56%) • Water Orton highest JSCUI with 60% • Currently spare capacity through • Ryecroft J (21%) & BordesleyJ (21%) • Little growth forecast at most currently-busy junctions • Aston (49%) Galton J (43%) & Soho SJ (55%) But large increase at: • BordesleyJ (42%) • Becomes busy – compromises may allow it to be time-tabled • RyecroftJ (56%) & Kingsbury J (57%) • Become very busy – challenging to accommodate • Water Orton (87%) - Cannot be accommodated

13. Findings: Water Orton corridor • Water Orton is key bottleneck in West Midlands • Strong unconstrained demand would outstrip corridor capacity • needs to be resolved to accommodate future growth • Needed to determine (conditional) output requirements of corridor to investigate solutions • Water Orton capacity constraint needs to be resolved for Tamworth / Nuneaton local rail service (via Camp Hill) to be launched

14. Study Findings- Camp Hill South • Study has identified potential incremental scheme which does not require S-W-L scheme • Kings Norton – Moor St. 3 services/hour + freight feasible • Assumes Kings Norton additional turnback platform off the main line to avoid conflicts with route to New St. • Camp Hill chord south could be built first • Could be developed with passive provision for north chord • Need to establish business case and viability of options • But removal of freight services or signalling upgrade may be required to reliably deliver > 3 services per hour

15. Concentration of freight sites • in North East quadrant • Opportunity for dedicated freight line connecting Whitacre J with Sutton Park line? • Using reserved route through Hams Hall • (2033/4 freight paths in 6-hour off-peak) Rugeley PS Featherstone / Four Ashes Cannock Sutton Park Kingsbury & Birch Coppice Bescot Hams Hall Jaguar Daw Mill Lawley St

16. Water Orton – Existing Layout

17. Summary of problem to solve Sutton Park line Tamworth Birch Coppice Landor St – Jaguar etc Daw Mill SORT FAST New St Nuneaton SLOW Bordesley J / Moor St • HS2 • Water Orton • Coleshill • Hams Hall • WhitacreJ • Kingsbury J

18. Water Orton – partial solutions • Divert freight to Stourbridge-Walsall-Lichfield • Easily-switchable trains reduces demand slightly: 157 to 145 • But costs probably not justifiable • WhitacreEast chord • or chord at Lichfield from WCML towards Rycroft/Sutton Park? • Restrictions on freight thru. W. Midlands? • Other freight re-routings involving longer distances & costs • Unpopular with freight operators • Could add to other capacity issues elsewhere (WCML full!) • Improved signalling • Compromise on fast passenger timings But probably need new tracks for full solution such as: • Grade separation at Water Orton and/or Whitacre Junctions • Dedicated freight route west of Whitacre Junction

19. Proposal to Network Rail • A solution to Water Orton is required • Start GRIP process • Establish relationship with Strategic Freight Network. Can SFN contribute to enhancement?