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Peter Cochrane ConceptLabs CA . a. Where Were Ware Wear. bles. The next 20 years will see more change that the previous 200… …this is the nature of exponential change. Beyond maps & mapping…. …and beyond satellite images…. Home made maps & activity tracking.
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Peter Cochrane ConceptLabs CA a Where Were Ware Wear bles
The next 20 years will see more change that the previous 200… …this is the nature of exponential change
Home made maps & activity tracking
USA amateurs are now venturing into 3D maps with panoramic camera additions of specific locations + vidcam feeds and data from sensors
My prediction Positioning systems will become as essential as communication nets in the future economy
People look at problems through one of these: When they actually need one of these:
Faster & faster wealth generation US$Bn 100 Internet PC Mobile 90 New Company Value 80 70 60 50 40 30 20 10 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 Year
Prediction 2015 Super iPod Every music track ever recorded on a single device in your shirt pocket… …& 10 years later every movie…
Change Time Years 40 20 10 1 Society Companies ConsumersTechnologies Change takes time… Mobile phones > Fixed line = 12 years Digital Fax > Analogue Fax = 8 years Colour TV > B&W TV = 11 years CD > Audio Tape = 9 years DVD > VHS Tape = 7 years Digital Nets > Analogue Nets = 15 years Optical Fibre > Copper + Microwave = 20 years
Where the action always is! Echo- System Business Hot Spot People Technology
A commonly held view… more of the same… …but better!
Today: Big growth areas in mobile... Gambling Ring Tones Wallet Pic sharing Music sharing Movie sharing
Tomorrow: Big growth areas in mobile... Positioning Tracking Monitoring Sensors Healthcare Navigation Security
Let’s converge into one device What is All This Garbage? Television GPS Device Rolodex Phone Walkie-Talkie Camera Portable MP3/Video Camcorder PDA FM Radio watch Game Console PC Pager
Or a nightmare of feature death… doing everything badly?
City Community Campus, Office, Airport, Home Cellular/Satellites International Personal Space PAN LAN MAN WAN Bluetooth UWB RFID WLAN 802.11X WiFi WMAN WiMAX Beam Forming HSDPA WCDMA UMTS The dream….…seamless access! Cameras - VOIP - Sensors - Positioning 3m 30m 3km Ubiquitous
A retail revolution - RFID &WiFi in every EPOS RFID will revolutionize every aspect of the supply chain - from raw materials to manufacture, logistics, supply & support. In the field of healthcare RFID will save lives, increase efficiency and reduce costs.
RFID + multiple sensor chips + nano gyros will also fit inside mobile phones
Cell Phone also becomes: a wallet, transaction centre, passport, ID and passport, insurance/medical record + locator and tracking deviceLocation by: triangulation, GPS, RFID, EPOS, WiFi, BlueTooth, NanoGyros - inertial record….
Current GPS Applications Aviation Maritime Highway Railroad Mass Transit Crime Prevention Surveying Agriculture Banking Defenc(s)e Power Telecommunication Law Enforcement Emergency Services Weather Scientific Construction Census Recreation Asset Tracking
2015 2005 = GPS Alone ~100 - 10m….military ~1m 2010 = GPS + GSM~1m…… military ~10cm 2015 = GPS + GSM+ EPOS + MEMS ~1cm
The destruction of the insurance industryby RFID + GPS +++? Where are my things? Who has them? What are they doing?
One of the biggest opportunities… …risk mitigation in logistics…
Things sometimes go a bit wrong!
>10,000 containers per year pushed overboard in stormy weather… …or lost at sea by some mechanism
RFID Higher orders of complexity to come! Goods Packs Containers
In the next phase RFID + GPS +AI takes over…. …and > $2T may be saved!
On-Line MonitoringAnywhere Anytime Any Activity Sporting Working Zzzzzzz...
Surrogate surgery MM, VR, Telepresence will change... Dublin Sheffield ...the way service is delivered & education & training is provided
A world of opportunity & risk…. Thank you, cochrane.org.uk conceptlabs.net