Mike Hruska ~ Jonathan Poltrack ~ Don Johnson

1. Think Globally Current and Future Trends Mike Hruska ~ Jonathan Poltrack ~ Don Johnson

2. Future Trends Future Survey The human population is projected to grow from 6.4B in 2004 to 7.9B in 2025 In the next 10-15 years the US workforce will grow at a much slower rate with greater participation by the elderly, disabled and women with children The concept of retirement is outdated and should be replaced with a more flexible approach that serves both employer and employee The past was characterized by 80% continuities, 15% cycles, and 5% novelties. This is reversed in the future with 80% novel, 15% cyclical, and 5% continuous Redesign of neighborhoods, transport, commercial corridors, parks, and public spaces will produce a more livable urban environment Pervasive computing and documentation will make all things transparent in public and private enterprises, total transparency will become international law Eradicating disconnectedness in the global economy is the defining security task of our age - expanding connectivity increases peace and prosperity worldwide

3. Future Trends New Rules for the New Economy - Kevin Kelly The grand irony of our times is that the era of computers is over We are now engaged in a grand scheme to augment, amplify, enhance, and extend the relationships and communications between all beings and all objects Wealth flows directly from innovation, not optimization; that is, wealth is not gained by perfecting the known, but by imperfectly seizing the unknown The ideal environment for cultivating the unknown is to nurture the supreme agility and nimbleness of networks The prime law of networking is known as the law of increasing returns Value explodes with membership, and the value explosion sucks in more members, compounding the result The dynamics of networks will continue to displace the old economic dynamics until networks behavior becomes the entire economy

4. Future Trends Information and Communications Technology - 1 Economic competitiveness depends on the ability to transform vast quantities of information into usable knowledge and deploy it effectively across organizations, markets and economies The effective deployment of knowledge derived from information can greatly accelerate their economic growth and competitiveness A 2005 study found that from 2001 to 2004 the US ICT industry increased its contribution to GDP 3 times faster than other goods & service-producing industries In 2004 those goods & service-producing industries raised their real value-added by 3.1% and 5.1% respectively while the ICT group saw a 14.7% increase By 2009, those three regions combined are expected to see total IT spending rise from $437 billion to $562 billion—equivalent to 2.7% of combined GDP This will result in more than 3 million additional IT jobs, and generate some $190 billion in new tax revenues for the three regions 51 governments

5. Future Trends Information and Communications Technology - 2 Economists have repeatedly found innovation to be the most powerful factor driving a countrys growth rate In the US an estimated 30 - 40% of the gains in productivity & growth achieved during the 20th century were attributable to innovation in its various forms One of the most detailed assessments of how ideas and innovation impact modern economies is to be found in a 2004 study by the U.S. Federal Reserve Board The authors found U.S. businesses invest more than $1 trillion a year in knowledge capital and in the 1990s this investment grew faster than all other business spending The study also found that more than 80% of the growth in U.S. productivity in the late 1990s was attributable to the development and application of new ideas, with the development of and investment in ICT alone accounting for just over 60%

6. Future Trends Advancing Knowledge and the Knowledge Economy The generation of knowledge is increasingly a product of networked entities Technology, market conditions and institutions continually transform Knowledge Knowledge flows across sectors to take advantage of joint costs & benefits The opportunity exists to integrate the Nation's investments in high performance networking, supercomputing, virtual observatories and laboratories, middleware, and large-scale databases into interoperable knowledge environments Firms located in geographically bounded knowledge-rich environments realize higher rates of innovation and increased entrepreneurial activity due to the localized nature of knowledge creation and deployment

7. Future Trends Knowledge and Distributed Intelligence - Circa 1999 National Science Foundation led an ambitious effort called Knowledge and Distributed Intelligence (KDI) The KDI objective is to create networked systems that can make all kinds of knowledge available to anyone, located anywhere, at any time Knowledge Networking research is developing more effective ways of creating, collecting and organizing information to glean useful human knowledge KN activities include creating Internet-based collaboratories that enable multidisciplinary teams participating from their home laboratories, offices KDI research is expected to accelerate our ability to model and simulate complex, multi-scale systems, such as the oceans or the brain and improve our ability to understand, predict, and control complex systems at a level never before possible

8. Future Trends Education Map of the Decade (1) Public education in the United States is at a critical crossroads The knowledge economy challenges the basic industrial-era assumptions upon which most public schools, curriculum, and evaluation mechanisms are based New interactive digital media is diffusing rapidly fostering a youth culture that is crashing into schools like a tsunami, raising privacy, relevance, and equity issues As the barriers between physical and digital spaces come down, people will move seamlessly between digital game spaces and urban neighborhoods For learning this means that the cooperative, critical-thinking and problem-solving practices in digital games make serious games a key form of pedagogy Ubiquitous computing and wireless connectivity will turn physical places into aware contexts - environments that recognize people, information, and activities Sensor-based technologies will also be used to monitor and manage the complex interacting environments of daily life including homes, workplaces, and schools

9. Future Trends Education Map of the Decade (2) Governor Rendell (Pa) announced a $20M initiative under the state's Classrooms of the Future program to provide every high school classrooms with laptops, Smart-boards, projectors, Web cams and other video cameras Experiences of Gen Y and Z with IM, video chat, gaming and multiple digital worlds will create new modes of work, socializing, and community learning that will drive cooperative strategies, experimentation, and parallel development An emerging set of cooperative technologies will facilitate network building, transparency, and aggregation of distributed resources - greatly expanding our capacity to cooperate in the creation of broader social value Convergence of networks and cooperative strategies sets the stage for new business models that function as platforms for value creation among distributed knowledge workers, innovative users, and customers Like EBay, schools will become open platforms for development of innovative and diverse learning models

10. Some Key Definitions Collaborate: To work jointly with others especially in an intellectual endeavor Online Collaboration: Any process that allows two or more people in different locations to cooperate on a task. It includes any form of real-time communication, including telephone and Web Conferencing, information-sharing tools such as the many groupware packages, and tools to help locate people, see if they are available, and engage them in solving a problem Groupware: Programs that help people work together collectively while located remotely from each other. Services can include the sharing of calendars, collective writing, e-mail handling, shared database access, electronic meetings with each person able to see and display information to others, and other activities. Also called collaborative software, groupware is an integral component of a field of study known as Computer-Supported Cooperative Work.

11. Some Key Definitions Integrated Collaborative Environments: Provide a framework for electronic collaboration within an organization, based on shared directory and messaging platforms. The core integrated-functionality areas are email, group calendaring and scheduling, shared folders/databases, threaded discussions, and custom application development. Representative products in this market include HandySoft BizFlow Groupware, IBM Lotus Notes/Domino, Microsoft Exchange/Outlook, and Novell GroupWise Collaboratory: More that an elaborate collection of information and communications technologies; a collaboratory is a new networked organizational form that also includes social processes; collaboration techniques; formal and informal communication; and agreement on norms, principles, values, and rules

12. Some Key Concepts • From 1992 to 2000 budgets for research and development of collaboratories ranged from $500K to >$10M and the total use ranged from 17 to 215 users per collaboratory • Higher costs occurred when software packages were not available for direct integration into the collaboratory or when requirements / expectations were not met • Today, however, such tools are available in off-the-shelf software packages such as MS NetMeeting, IBM Lotus SameTime, and Mbone Videoconferencing • Co-Laboratories can now move beyond general communication mechanisms to evaluating and supporting the very nature of collaboration in the scientific context • The collaboratory design team defined the requirements as follows: • Ability share graphical data easily • Ability to discuss modeling strategies and exchange model descriptions • Archiving collaborative information • Ability to run dynamic models at widely separated locations • Ability to analyze experimental data and modeling in a web-accessible format • Videoconferencing and group meetings capabilities • Collaboration technology readiness requires a considerable investment in training

13. Collaborative Information Network Collaborative Learning Network Collaborative Innovation Network Some Key Concepts COINs form from the interaction of like-minded self motivated individuals with a common vision who want to be part of the innovation that will change the world Dissemination of new ideas is similar to the ripple when a pebble drops into water Innovations ripple from the innermost COIN circle to the next larger CLN circle then to the CIN circle, until they reach the rest of the world COINs are cyber-teams of self-motivated people with a collective vision, using the Web to collaborate to achieve common goals by sharing ideas, information and work CLNs comprise people who come together in a community and share not only a common interest but also common knowledge and a common practice CINs comprise people who share common interests but do little work as a team This whole ecosystem is called a Collaborative Knowledge Network

14. The Global Knowledge Economy World Bank Knowledge Assessment Methodology - $10-$15B The World Bank is striving to eliminate poverty and build a climate for investment, jobs and sustainable growth in developing countries. The Knowledge Assessment Methodology (KAM) is an interactive benchmarking tool to help countries identify the challenges and opportunities they face in making the transition to the knowledge-based economy such as entrepreneurship and innovation, research and development, software and design, and education and skills levels Each year the World Bank provides about $10-$15B in investment funds to the developing countries for goods, construction, and consulting services needed to transition to the knowledge-based economy

15. Current and Future Trends Online Advertising $80B Companies pay $2.5M for a 30 sec Super Bowl ad to get the attention of the nation The latest craze is ads made by ordinary folks instead of glitzy, expensive ads Doritos Crash the Super Bowl contest will pay $10K for a 30-sec spot that cost $12 User-generated content is from amateurs who create home-made video for the Web YouTube is exploding faster than anything else: > 100 million video-streams a day The advertisement market space is BIG money for technology providers Online content is at a major inflection point triggered by the web social networking phenomenon and free advertising-supported video Estimates are that Internet advertising will reach $82B by 2011 with an average annual growth of at least 21% U.S. online advertising could reach $43B by 2011

16. Global Market Forecast Video Game Market to reach $43B by 2011 • Intelligence forecasts of Global video game and interactive entertainment market: • Grow from about $29B in 2005 to around $43B by 2011 • 124 million PC Gamers in the US • 14% of kids under 3 years old played video games • 29 million gamers in China in 2004, growing to 55 million in 2009 • 63 million gamers in the Philippines by 2008 • Asian Pacific online gaming market to reach $3.6B by 2010 • 37% of gamers now online • 40% of Americans buy computer games • 44 million portable gaming devices with network connections in 2006 • 61% of kids play a video game every day • Average MMORG gamer spends 20 to 25 hours a week on game • Online gaming subscriptions generated $936M in 2005 – to top $3.9B in 2009 • Virtual goods for MMORG are $880M industry

17. US eLearning Market Forecast $13B in 2011 US eLearning Market Tops $10 Billion in 2006 The market for e-Learning will grow by 31% from 2006 to 2011 The revenues for outsourced services are growing by 80.2% on strong demand for content targeted to specific sectors  Today the largest buyers are still the corporations and federal government but by 2011 the higher education segment will be the largest The fastest growing market is the PreK-12 academic segment followed closely by higher education, associations, and healthcare There is continued erosion of IT-based packaged content revenues due to increase of other products types particularly real-time collaboration-based learning There is a new and growing demand for installed learning appliances in the state and local government, higher education, and very small business markets

18. US Wireless Medical Technologies Market $12B by 2011 The medical sector is poised for an ICT revolution with wireless technologies transforming the way health information is captured, stored and delivered A spiral increase in spending is being driven by a shortage of nurses, increasing demand for improvement in quality of care, pressures to reduce medical cost and increasing population of the aged; and government regulations such as the HIPAA The wireless network technologies being used in medical environments are ZigBee, Bluetooth, Infrared, UWB, Wi-Fi, WiMAX and Cellular Existing medical technologies that utilize wireless technologies are remote monitoring systems, point-of-care systems, data management systems, home medical equipments and radio frequency identification (RFID) The market for wireless medical technologies is in a nascent stage and is estimated at about $3.7 billion in It will grow over the next four to five year period to $10.7 billion in 2010

19. Advanced Distributed Learning Market ~ $10M per year ADL began as a DoD-wide strategy to use learning and information technologies to modernize education and training in response to the 1997 Quadrennial Defense Review The intent was to set forth a new open architecture framework with the capability to provide DoD personnel access to high quality education and training, tailored to individual needs and delivered cost effectively, whenever and wherever required DoD envisioned using the Internet and other virtual or private wide-area networks, distributed learning experts, learning management and diverse support tools to ensure a "learner-centric" ADL system Since it’s inception the ADL initiative has been embraced by governments, industry and academia which is continuing to spread across the international community

20. Regional Market State Incentives ~ 3M Pa is a leader in economic development with over $2.8B in loans and grants The Ben Franklin Technology Development investment fund is adaptable to the newly developed business structures evolving in the new technology economy Ben Franklin Technology Partners is the collective name of the four regional nonprofit corporations representing the statewide network Partnership activities may include serving as key regional facilitators and managers and working collaboratively to advance the development of a technology-based economy across the Commonwealth The Partner for Southwestern Pennsylvania is Innovation Works Inc

21. Regional Market The Next-Generation of Collaborative Developers

22. Next Steps

23. Think Globally