Emerging Technologies, Regional Scorecards: e-Business in Asia

1. Emerging Technologies, Regional Scorecards: e-Business in Asia Dr. Madanmohan Rao Consultant, 4Cplus; Editor, INOMY Bangalore, INDIA madan@inomy.com, madan@4Cplus.com

2. The Eight Cs of the Digital Economy • Connectivity • Content • Community • Commerce • Capacity • Culture • Cooperation • Capital

3. Generations of Internet Technologies • Generation I: Mainframe (one machine, many users) • Generation II: Workstations, PCs (one machine, one user) • Generation III: Consumer electronics, embedded devices (many machines, one user)

4. Consumer Devices • PDAs, laptops, cellphones, headsets, cordless phones, MP3 players, joysticks, fingerprint scanners, medical instruments, point of sale (POS) scanners, DVDs, pen computers, wireless modems, digital still cameras, Webcams, e-books, TV set-top boxes, fridges, microwave ovens….

5. Applications • Sharing of home videos via the Net • Monitoring alarm systems in offices • Instrumentation for industrial applications • Monitoring of goods in supply chains • Inventory updates for mobile sales forces • Support information for field technicians • Wireless Internet access in hotel rooms • Headsets for museum visitors • Automated airport check-in by travelers (not any more!!)

6. Embedded devices • On-board power-sensitive design techniques • Space optimization • Programmable logic devices • High-resolution displays • System on chip (SoC) circuitry, security chips • Upstream/downstream migration to ‘soft silicon’

7. Outlook for Asia • Web-enabled devices, wireless networks • IT services, IT-enabled services • ICT research and development • Content + creative industries • Citizen empowerment • Access, development challenges

10. Regional Variations in m-Services • US: e-mail, surfing, news, travel; comfort with credit cards; discomfort with location-based privacy. Professional use. • Japan, Korea: entertainment (downloadable ring tones), email • Europe: banking, email; discomfort with credit card usage

11. Momentum/Inertia factors • U.S: familiarity with Internet commerce => less satisfied with m-interface, more accepting of m-transactions • Japan: focus on entertainment, less mindful of the Internet as a point of comparison. i-mode offers a more satisfying user experience than WAP. • French: satisfied with Minitel, skeptical about WAP • Germany: strong identification with bank brands • Swedes: more technically savvy • Australia: affluent professional users (due to high handset costs)

12. Challenges • Standards • Devices • Content • Commerce • Business models • User behaviour (usability, momentum)

13. Dimensions of Convergence • Representation (bits) • Protocols (TCP/IP, Web) • Channels (phone, TV) • User devices (TV, PC) • Functionality (PC, cellphone) • Applications (email) • User behaviour (messaging, surfing) • Policy (broadcast, print, telecom) • Consumer data (demographics, location, transaction)

14. Dimension of divergence • Location (car radio, clock radio) • Channels (cable TV, satellite TV) • User devices (cordless phone, cellphone) • Entertainment modes (digital cameras, MP3 players) • Size/specs (PCs, notebooks) • Policy (IT, Internet) • User behaviour (convenience, price)

15. Generations of Wireless Internet 1G Voice only 1979 2G GSM/TDMA 1992 2.5G GPRS, EDGE 2001 3G WCDMA 2001, 2002 4G 2010

16. The Market • Wireless Internet economy: $25 billion by 2005 • Wireless users: 600 million worldwide (Asia: 250 million) • Internet user base: 420 million

17. “Asia is beating Europe and North America in pure wireless markets, and will lead in the wireless Internet as well. The 3G world belongs to the Asian people.” Emmanuel Sauquet, Nortel Networks

18. VoIP • Managed networks: corporate class • Public Internet: consumer services • Carrier class: international/national networks Softswitch, gateways, IP PBX, voice+data CRM

19. Asian Internet: 4 Episodes • 1960s – 1980: Computing infrastructure, Keiretsu, Chaebol, IIT/AIT/AIM/NCB • 1980-1995: APNIC, early internetworks • 1995-2000: Commercial Internet growth, deregulation • 2001 onwards: Convergence, divergence

20. Scorecard 1: U.S. • Core technologies • Fortune 500 companies, B2B hubs • Venture capital, stock markets • Technology media

21. Scorecard 2: Latin America • Only two languages (Spanish, Portuguese) • U.S. and Spanish players • Regional trading blocs • Collective consciousness • Community access centres • Cultural products (music), sports (football)

22. Scorecard 3: Europe • Economic integration • Linguistic diversity: challenge, opportunity • Interactive TV • Large markets (Germany, France, UK), sophisticated markets (Scandinavia) • Broadband • IT worker shortages

23. Scorecard 4: Africa & Middle East • Infrastructure challenges • Regional pockets: South Africa; Kenya; Dubai, Tunisia, Egypt; Israel • Common languages • Cultural products (music) • Diaspora populations

24. Scorecard 5: Asia-Pacific • Hardware, software powerhouse • Digital divide; regulations • Mobile Internet • Global diaspora (“digital glue”) • Major markets: China, India, Japan, South Korea, Australia • VoIP: China, India

25. Asian Powerhouses • Appliances: Taiwan, Japan, South Korea • Creative content: Philippines • Networks: Japan, South Korea • Operators: Japan, South Korea, China • Services: Singapore • Software: India • Online Tourism: Thailand, Nepal

26. The Crystal Ball • Bandwidth, satellite, fibre • XML • Branding • Digital radio • Digital divide

27. “The Asia-Pacific region will ramp up Internet-enabled wireless phones before the rest of the world and is poised to become the world's mobile powerhouse. By 2010, more than 50 percent of all mobile-phone users in the world will be in the Asia-Pacific region, up from 35 percent in 2000.” ITU

28. madan@inomy.com digitalnomad@hotmail.com