Internet Economics כלכלת האינטרנט

1. Internet Economicsכלכלת האינטרנט

2. Teacher • Dr. LiadBlumrosenד"ר ליעד בלומרוזן • Office: 5205 • Email: blumrosen@huji.ac.il • Office hours: Wednesdays, 13:30-14:30(Please drop me a line if you plan to come)

3. Course structure • Semester A: I will teach the foundations. • Should make the literature accessible. • You get some ideas for the seminar paper… • Topics: • Introduction (this week) • Essentials from game theory (1 weekif needed) • Auction and market design (~6 weeks) • Social networks (~3 weeks) • Recommendation systems (1-2 weeks) • Information markets (1 week) • More…. • Semester B: student presentations. • and guidance for writing the seminar paper.

4. Course requirements • Requirements: write a seminar paper • Choose a topic: by the end of Semester A(submit a proposal, get approval.) • Present the related paper in class (~30 minutes). • During semester B • Write the seminar paper • up to 10 pages, font 12, 1.5 lines spacing. • Submission time is May 30th ! • Work in pairs (recommended, not mandatory). • One problem set towards the end of Semester A • Can only improve final grade (“Magen”).

5. Grade • 30% presentation • 58% seminar paper • 12% participation • You will get 12 points if you attend at least 80% of the classes in both the 1st and the 2nd semester. • If you miss the 80% in one of the semesters, you get 0 points. • You will not get a grade in the course if you attend less than 50% of the classes in at least one of the semesters. • 12% problem set (“magen”)

6. Topic selection • Everything related to Internet Economics. • Recommended: • choose a research paper, read it, understand it, and make it a starting point of the seminar paper. • List of suggested papers will appear on the course web page. • You are free to choose any other paper or topic (but I need to approve it).

7. Topic selection • Class presentation: present the paper • Background, main result, added value to literature. • Present to class, not to me. • In Hebrew. • Slides: In English (preferred), or Hebrew. • Seminar paper: propose a research idea • Main goal:A new research direction, phrase exact questions and challenges, one (small) step toward to solution. • Idea may be theoretical, empirical or other. You need to define the framework of the research (model, goals, questions, difficulties, data resources, suggested theorems)

8. Resources • Course web-page/blog: • http://interneteconomicscourse2011.wordpress.com • Not in high-learn • All materials (slides, assignments, etc.) will be put online. • Suggested articles, book chapters, and reading suggestions will also be posted.

9. למה השקפים באנגלית?

10. End of administrative part. Questions?

11. Now, a short preview for the course. Note:theoretical course, based and demonstrated by real world internet application.

12. Internet • Last two decades: information revolution. • Communication became:quick, large bandwidth, available anytime and everywhere. • Changes our everyday life. • Also change commerce. • Many large internet systems. • Can we design them without economic understanding? • Can we understand them without economic tools?

13. Course topics Some examples in the next slides. • Foundations of electronic commerce • Matching systems • Residents to hospitals, Kids to schools, Kidney Exchange, Match.com • Social networks • Recommendation systems • Information markets

14. Design and analysis The Internet was, and still is, built by humans. Its main applications too.Economists as engineers. In most of the course, we will try to understand the logic behind the design of Internet systems • and analyze how they are expected to work…

15. Course topics: examples • Auctions. Let’s start with a little auction….

16. Class Experiment • כל תלמיד צריך לכתוב לי שתי הצעות מחיר, אחת לכל שיטת מכירה. • ההצעות יכולות, אך לא חייבות, להיות שונות זו מזו. • אפשר להציע 0 אגורות אם לא מעוניינים. • לאחר קבלת הצעות המחיר, אני אטיל מטבע ואבחר באיזו שיטה אני בוחר. שיטה שניה:"שלם את הבא אחריך"ההצעה הגבוהה ביותר זוכה, והתשלום הוא ההצעה השניה הכי גבוהה. • שיטה ראשונה:"שלם את הצעתך"ההצעה הגבוהה ביותר זוכה, והתשלום הוא גובה ההצעה. אם המכירה תהיה "שלם את הצעתך", הצעתי היא 4.31 שקלים אם המכירה תהיה "שלם את הבא אחריך" הצעתי היא 5.11 שלקים לדוגמא:

17. Auctions • Basic model: • 1 item for sale • n bidders • Each bidder submits bid bifor the items. Bid = 20 Bid = 8 Bid = 12 Bid = 15 First-price auctions: • The bidder with highest bid wins • Pays his own bid Second-price auctions: • The bidder with highest bid wins • Pays the second highest bid

18. Auctions • Have you ever seen a second-price auction in real life? • Yes! eBay, olsale.co.il • Ascending-price auctions are equivalent to second price auctions. • Really equivalent?

19. Maximize profit – how? • If you are a profit maximizing seller, what would you choose:first –price or second-price auctions?

20. Revenue equivalence Revenue in first price auction Revenue in second prize auction • Answer: • How can it be? Intuition: in first price auction, people bid less then they are actually willing to pay. • “The Revenue Equivalence Theorem”(Roger Myerson, ‘81, Nobel prize winner).

21. Course topics: examples • Auctions • Sponsored search

22. Auctions for Sponsored Search Real (“organic”) search result Ads: “sponsored search”

23. Auctions for Sponsored Search

24. Sponsored search auctions • An online auction is run for every individual search. • Advertising is effective. • Targeted. • Users in search mode. • (mostly) Pay-per-click auctions. • First price? Second price? In about 5 classes…

25. Market design and sponsored search • Google’s revenue from sponsored search: Billions of Dollars each quarter. • Every little detail matters. • Advertisers are “selfish” agents: will manipulate the auction if possible. • Not a regular software development:hard to experiment. • Big internet companies (Google, eBay, Microsoft, Yahoo, etc.) are hiring well-known economists to design their markets. • Use auction theory!

26. Course topics: examples • Auctions • Sponsored search • Social Networks

27. Social Networks US high school dating network: who have you been in romantic touch with, in the past 18 months

28. Social Networks High school friendship network. Kids from different races have different colors.

29. Social Networks A spread of an epidemic disease tuberculosis.

30. Interdisciplinary subject • In the previous slides: social network that were studied by sociologists for years. • What about research on facebook(over 500 million active users), mySpace, gmail, MS messanger, flickr, and many more…. • Researchers from multiple disciplines:Economics, sociology, biology, computer science, physics…

31. Modeling Representation: graph (network). • Edge between nodes: friendship, know each other, … • Can be directed or non directed. • Distance between nodes: shortest path between them.

32. Famous distance 1: Kevin Bacon Friendship (or edge in the graph):A played with B in the same movie “Kevin Bacon number” – distance (shortest path) to Kevin Bacon. The Oracle of Bacon. • Humphrey Bogart’s Bacon number 2. • HaimTopolhas Bacon number 2. • Maximal known – 8 (wikipedia)

33. Famous distance 1: Erdös number Paul Erdös – one of the greatest mathematicians of our times. Friendship/edge :Awrote a scientific paper with B. • Robert J. Aumann’s (3), Larry Page (3), Bill Gates (4) • My Erdös number - 3 (I wrote a paper with someone that wrote a paper with someone that wrote a paper with Erdös ).

34. Many interesting questions Bacon number, Erdös number – examples for “small world phenomena”/”six degrees of separation”. • How do social networks form? • What is their structure? • How information is spread through the network? • Close vs. distant friends. • Positive vs. negative externalities.

35. Course topics: examples • Auctions • Sponsored search • Social Networks • Recommendation (reputation) systems

36. Recommendation systems

37. Recommendation systems

38. Recommendation systems • Possible manipulations: • Whitewashing (users with poor reputation starting afresh) • Lack of effort/honesty in providing feedback. • Sybil attacks (create feedback from fake identities). • Research directions: • Economic modeling of the problem • Design manipulation-proof mechanisms.

39. Course topics: examples • Auctions • Sponsored search • Social Networks • Recommendation (reputation) systems • Information markets

40. Information markets What is the probability that Amos Oz will win the Nobel Prize in literature next year? How can we estimate it? Use the “Wisdom of the Crowds”. Method: • We sell a bond that will pay $100 next year if Oz wins. • If people price it for $23: probability is 23%.

41. Information markets intrade

42. Information markets Many design issues… • Aggregation of information. • Arbitrage prevention. • Budget balance. • Complex items (think about currency exchange rates)

43. Bottom line • Most of the material in the course is “theoretical”. • However, topics will be motivated by real world system and analyze the rational behind its design. • Seminar papers: most will be based on applied theory papers (math level from trivial to hard, you choose). Relevant empirical papers are also possible.

44. Good luck!