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NFC: The Path from Hope to Reality

NFC: The Path from Hope to Reality. Mark Hung Research Director. Key Issues. What are the current roadblocks? What are the key markers to watch? How are the industry players positioned?. Roadblock #1. Roadblock #2 – Fixation on Payments. The Triad – Banks, Carriers, Platform Providers

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NFC: The Path from Hope to Reality

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  1. NFC: The Path from Hope to Reality Mark Hung Research Director

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  3. Key Issues • What are the current roadblocks? • What are the key markers to watch? • How are the industry players positioned? 2

  4. Roadblock #1 3

  5. Roadblock #2 – Fixation on Payments • The Triad – Banks, Carriers, Platform Providers • Infrastructure – Merchants • Year of the Wallet 4

  6. Wallet ProviderInterest vs. Perception N = 3,032

  7. NFC Payment – Positive Developments • Pew Internet Project • 10%: used mobile phone to make charitable donation by texting • 33%: used smartphone to do online banking • 46%: purchased an app • 65%: “By 2020, most people will have embraced and fully adopted the use of smart-device swiping for purchases they make, nearly eliminating the need for cash or credit cards.” • Starbucks payment app • 26 million payments processed in first 11 months • 15 million payments processed in following 4 months • EMV: Visa and MasterCard 6

  8. Roadblock #3 – Where’s the Killer App? 7

  9. Key Issues • What are the current roadblocks? • What are the key markers to watch? • How are the industry players positioned? 8

  10. DOOH! 9

  11. Marker #1: Mobile MarketingDOOH • Attract • Engage • Educate • Purchase 10

  12. Marker #1: Mobile MarketingQR Code – The Gateway Drug 11

  13. Marker #2: Device Pairing 12

  14. Marker #3: Authentication • Physical access • Residential: Yale/Assa Abloy • Commercial: HID Global • Hospitality: Openways • Computing: Intel • Online: Intel and MasterCard 13

  15. Marker #4: Transportation • Public Transit • Bay Area: BART • New York: MTA • U.S.: Salt Lake City, Philadelphia, Boston • Asia: Japan, Singapore, China • Parking • San Francisco’s metered street-side parking 14

  16. Key Issues • What are the current roadblocks? • What are the key markers to watch? • How are the industry players positioned? 15

  17. The Path to Reality Enable the Technology for Mass Adoption 16

  18. Enable the Technology for Mass Adoption Semiconductor Vendors • Current cost too high: total system implementation cost is higher than the most common wireless connectivity functions…combined • Recent Developments • NXP’s new antenna optimizing chip • Broadcom’s 40nm chip • TI’s 5-in-1 combo • Kovio’s printed silicon tag 17

  19. The Path to Reality Enable the Technology for Mass Adoption Increase the Attach Rate of NFC 18

  20. Increase the Attach Rate of NFC Handset OEMs • Platforms • Hero devices • Galaxy S III • Galaxy Nexus • HTC One X • Nokia PureView 808 • Blackberry Bold • Continue on the current path, and start driving it to mid-range phones 19

  21. The Path to Reality Expand NFC to Other Platforms Enable the Technology for Mass Adoption Increase the Attach Rate of NFC 20

  22. Expand NFC to Other Platforms Computing and Consumer Electronics • The sum is greater than the parts • Recent Developments • Tablet: B&N Nook, Sharp, Samsung Galaxy Note • PC: Ultrabook • TV: MobiSocial, Nokia Play • Set-top Box and Wireless Routers 21

  23. The Path to Reality Create a Platform- Independent Solution Expand NFC to Other Platforms Enable the Technology for Mass Adoption Increase the Attach Rate of NFC 22

  24. Create a Platform Independent Solution OS Providers • Interoperability is key • Current Issues • Inability to share • Tag confusion 23

  25. Tag Confusion • NFC Forum Type 1 • Topaz • NFC Forum Type 2 • MifareUltralight • NTAG 203 • NFC Forum Type 3 • FelicaRCS 965 NFC • NFC Forum Type 4 • MifareDESfireEV14k • Type 2 Compatible • Mifare Classic 1k • Mifare Classic 4k • NFC-V / ISO 15693 • NXPSLI • Web link (smart poster) • NTAG 203 • Web link (URI) • MifareUltralight • Phone call (URI) • MifareUltralight • SMS (smart poster) • MifareUltralight • E-mail (URI) • MifareUltralight • vCard / Business Card • NTAG 203 • Text RTD • MifareUltralight 24

  26. The Path to Reality 25

  27. The Path Does NOT Include… • Service providers (e.g., banks) • Carriers • Merchants 26

  28. NFC Market Adoption NFC Volume 27

  29. Where Do We Go from Here? “And no, we don’t know where it will lead. We just know there’s something much bigger than any of us here.” 28

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  31. NFC: The Path from Hope to Reality Mark Hung Research Director

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