“Climate change policy mixtures and assessment of different scenarios for Albania”

1. 6-th Annual International Conference on“Energy and Climate Change”.Athens, Greece, October 09th 2013 “Climate change policy mixtures and assessment of different scenarios for Albania” Prof. Dr.-Ing. Andonaq LAMANI Department of Energy, Faculty of Mechanical Engineering, Polytechnic University of Tirana, “Mother Teresa” Square, No. 4, Tirana, Albania, e-mail: alondo@fim.edu.al

2. Introduction • Levels of CO2 emissions in Albania are about 5-times lower than average international levels (WRI 2011). • This is because (EC 2008): • a high percentage of electricity is produced by hydro power plants; • energy consumption per capita is low, and • industrial productivity has continued to fall.

3. Spectrum of climate change mitigation options for Albania Furthermore, the Albanian energy sector is facing the following problems which may be an obstacle to further economic development: i) high dependence on hydropower (World Bank, 2010); ii) limited regional electricity interconnections at present (World Bank, 2010); iii) high level of energy import dependence (2.538 TWh or 33.3% at 2012) (ERE, 2012); iv) high technical and commercial losses from the distribution system (3.346 TWh or 43.9% at 2012) (ERE, 2012); v) (10-20)% of water resources are lost in the irrigation system (UNDP, 2012).

4. Spectrum of adaptation needs in Albania • The future climate scenario for Albania predicts (GEF, 2006): • increased temperatures; • decreased precipitation, and • reduction of arable land and water resources. • The most vulnerable area is Albania’s coastal zone, while the most vulnerable sectors are expected to be (GEF, 2006): • water resources; • agriculture; • energy, and • tourism.

5. Scenarios Business – As – Usual Scenario (2000 – 2050) BAU scenario description The BAU scenario is structured by: Laws, regulations, Ministerial Decisions or presidential Degrees which are related with the climate change problem, were included; The mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that Albania has set into force before 1st January 2011.

6. Scenarios • Optimistic Scenario (2000 – 2050) • Optimistic scenario description • The Optimistic scenario is structured by: • the mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that Albania has set into force after 1st January 2011; • additional policy instruments in line with the EU climate change policy that can be adjusted to the needs and priorities of Albania, and • the maximum exploitation of the potential of Albania in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.

7. Scenarios • Pessimistic Scenario (2000 – 2050) • Pessimistic scenario description • The Pessimistic scenario is structured by: • the mitigation/adaptation policy instruments that Albania has set into force after 1st January 2011; • no other additional policy instruments apart from those already decided to be implemented and in line with the EU climate change policy, which will be adjusted to the needs and priorities of Albania, and • the minimum exploitation of the potential of Albania in energy efficiency and renewable energy sources.

8. Official data sources • Albanian institutions which are involved in the data collecting process, are: • INSTAT- Institute of Statistics www.instat.gov.al • ERE- Albanian Energy Regulatory Authority www.ere.gov.al • APC- Albanian Power Corporation www.kesh.com.al • OST- Transmission System Operator www.ost.al • CEZ Distribution www.cez.al • Bank of Albania www.bankofalbania.al • Ministry of Economy, Trade, and Energy www.mete.gov.al • Ministry of Environment, Forest, and Water Administration www.moef.gov.al • Ministry of Finance www.minfin.gov.al • Ministry of Agriculture, Food, and Consumer Protection http://www.mbumk.gov.al/ • National Agency of Natural Resources www.akbn.gov.al • Other International Institutions are: • World Bank www.worldbank.org, International Monetary Fund www.imf.org • Energy Community http://www.energy-community.org, USAID www.usaid.gov • UN Development Programme www.undp.org, International Energy Agency www.iea.org, Energy Charter http://www.encharter.org, etc.

9. Demographics: Population

10. Economy: Gross Domestic Product

11. Climate statistics: Temperature

12. Climate statistics: Precipitation

13. Policies and Measures: Land management

14. Energy Demand: Households sector

15. Energy Demand: Agricultural sector

16. Energy Demand: Industrial sector

17. Energy Demand: Commercial and Public sectors

18. Energy Demand: Other sectors

19. Energy Demand: Transport sector

20. Energy Demand: Non-specified sectors

21. Transformation: All plants

22. Global warming potential (GHG emissions) All sectors

23. Assessment of the three developed scenarios • The multi - criteria method AMS is used for the assessment of the 3-developed scenarios for Albania. • The AMS method • Each scenario is assessed for its • performance under the • criteria/sub-criteria of the AMS method. This method is a combination of three standard multi-criteria methods: • the Analytical Hierarchy Process (AHP), • the Multi-Attribute Utility Theory (MAUT), and • the Simple Multi-Attribute Ranking Technique (SMART).

24. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Result: The best scenario

25. Assessment of the three developed scenarios The structure

26. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Total emissions in Albania

27. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Emissions per each sector in Albania

28. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Other environmental effects in Albania under each scenario

29. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Water use in Albania

30. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Initial settings for the 3-scenarios in ClimAMS-2012

31. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Criterion 1: Environmental performance The first sub-criterion “Direct contribution to GHG emission reductions”; The second sub-criterion “Indirect environmental effects”.

32. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Criterion 2: Political acceptability Results for each sub-criterion: Cost efficiency; Dynamic cost efficiency ; Competitiveness; Equity; Flexibility; Stringency for non-compliance ”.

33. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Criterion 3: Feasibility of implementation First sub-criterion “Implementation network capacity ”; Second sub-criterion “Administrative feasibility ”; Third sub-criterion “Financial feasibility”.

34. Assessment of the three developed scenarios Results of AMS method

35. Assessment of the three developed scenarios AMS results for each scenario for Albania The final grades demonstrate that OPTIMISTIC scenario has the best performance in achieving the objectives of the Albanian climate change policy taking into consideration the national framework. However, it has specific weaknesses under the criterion “feasibility of implementation”.

36. Scodra town during 2010 heavy floods www.gazeta-shqip.com Thank You For Your Attention! Prof.Dr.-Ing. Andonaq LAMANI Department of Energy, F.M.E.-P.U.T. e-mail: alondo@fim.edu.al