Youth Aspirations and Sense of Place in a Changing Rural Economy: The Coos Youth Study

2. Youth Aspirations and Sense of Place in a Changing Rural Economy: The Coos Youth Study Prepared for:Supporting Rural Schools & Communities Research Conference November 5 - 6, 2009 Presented by: NenaStracuzzi, Ph.D. Carsey Institute University of New Hampshire Durham, New Hampshire

3. Coos Youth StudyLongitudinal panel study tracking two cohorts of youth in northern New Hampshire • Overview • Background • Context for this study • Purpose of the Study • Methods • Research Question for Today’s Discussion • Findings • Implications

6. Context • 1990 – 2004, New Hampshire’s young adult population ages 25-34 declined by 27%, exceeding that of 46 other states in the country • Coos County, NH (already in serious economic decline as a result of manufacturing loss) particularly hard hit, losing 38% of their young adults • The loss of youth from rural areas further compromises the well-being of rural NH communities, families, and individuals

7. Population loss widespread in northern and central Coos County

8. Study Goals • Our aims, broadly defined, are to gain a greater understanding of: • the obstacles rural youth face while transitioning to adulthood; • the conditions under which rural youth achieve the goals they set for themselves (or not); and • the social contexts in which rural youth make their decisions to remain in their communities of origin or to seek opportunities elsewhere.

9. We are exploring youths’. . . • aspirations for future academic and economic success; • beliefs about economic opportunities within local communities; • attachment to the North Country region; • exposure to the broader world through technology; and • satisfaction with family, peer, school, and community relationships.

10. Three Dimensions of Well-being • Integration • sense of belonging within a given social context (family, school, friends, community). • Aspiration • towards higher education, starting families, becoming financially independent, becoming engaged in their communities • Transition • Successfully transitioning into adulthood

11. Methods • Panel study tracking . . . • Two cohorts (7th/11th grade in 2008) • 5 school districts • 7 high schools; 9 middle schools • Paper & Pencil Surveys • 30-40 minutes to complete • Questions re: relationships with friends and family, feelings about school and community, educational aspirations, beliefs & behaviors

12. Wave I • Completed Feb 2008 • 78% response rate (656) • 7th Graders (n = 316) • 11th Graders (n = 341) • 60 in-depth interviews with 30 7th grade students and their mothers. Wave II • Completed June 2009 • (N = 678) • BUT, many are new students; 76 still missing from first wave • Missing students primarily seniors • Working on finding them • Email, Phone, Facebook

13. Facebook name name 147 Friends name name name name name name Our profile picture name name name name number name name

14. Selected Findings from Wave I Examination of Youth’s Educational Aspirations Across Family, Peer, School, and Community Domains

15. Demographics N = 656

16. Coos County Students Have High Aspirations

17. DEPENDENT VARIABLES 1) Likelihood of Graduating From College 2) Likelihood of Getting a Full Time Job >High School Four Domains: Family, Peer, School & Community

18. Family • Independent Variables • Close to mom (α = .89) • (feel close, enjoy spending time, comfortable talking with) • Close to dad (α= .93) • (feel close, enjoy spending time, comfortable talking with) • Help with future plans by mom (α= .91) • (educational, career, family) • Help with future plans by dad (α = .76) • (educational, career, family) • Parents messages re: • Importance of going to college • Importance of having successful careers • Importance of living close to them

19. Independent Variables female (+) parents’ messages - college important (+) mom’s help w/future plans (+) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) parents’ messages - college important (-) - live close (+) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

20. Peers • Independent Variables • Friends planning to go to college • Friends doing well in school • Friends plan to get a job out of high school • Friends encourage you to do your best in school • Popularity (α = .88) • (kids think I’m fun, lots of friends, invitations, texts, emails, et cetera) • Importance of popularity (α = .83) • (important to be popular, have lots of friends, others think you’re fun, et cetera)

21. Independent Variables female (+) friends . . . - plan go to college (+) - plan to get a job > HS (-) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) friends . . . - plan to go to college (-) - plan to get a job > HS(+) popularity (+) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

22. School • Independent Variables • Grades • Reasons for Coming to School • Enjoy academic subjects • Have to • Need for job or diploma • Need for college • Sense of Belonging (α = .83) • (feel like belong at school, students accept me, teachers willing to help with personal problems, teachers expect best, et cetera) • School Activities (α = .71) • (student government, band, honor society, academic clubs, et cetera)

23. Independent Variables grades (+) reason for attending school -need for college(+) school activities (+) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) grades (-) reason for attending school - have to (+) - need for college (-) - need for diploma or job (+) school activities (-) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full Time Job > HS

24. Community • Independent Variables • Mother raised in community • Father raised in community • Grandparent raised in community • Positive feelings about the community (α = .89) • (people: can be trusted, help their neighbors, are caring and friendly; this is a close-knit community, my community is safe, et cetera) • Negative feelings about the community (α = .87) • (people in this community: like to gossip, are rude, judge others unfairly; there is nothing to do, it is boring, isolated from other communities, et cetera) • Community activities (α = .70) • (4-H, church groups, community service clubs, hobby clubs, sports, et cetera)

25. Independent Variables female (+) community activities (+) positive community feelings (+) Independent Variables age (-) married (-) parents’ education (-) positive community feelings (-) Likelihood Graduating College Likelihood Full time Job > HS

26. FINAL MODELS: Predictors of Educational Aspirations Among Family, Peer, School and Community Domains

27. FINAL MODELS • Predictors of Aspirations (college/job); • Standardized Regression Coefficients

28. Implications