The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and Its Implications for India

1. The Global Financial Crisis of 2008 and Its Implications for India Can India Match China? By Dr. Surendra K. Kaushik Lubin School of Business, Pace University, New York skaushik@pace.edu And Founder and Chairman of Mrs. Helena Kaushik Women’s College Malsisar, Jhunjhunu, Rajasthan, India www.helenakaushik.org

2. Historical Trends • The Tortoise and the Hair • The Vedantic Cultural Foundation of India • The Secret of Continuous Survival • The Evolution of the Oldest Civilization • The Hindu Rate of Growth • Historical Growth in India and the United States • The History of the Hindu Rate in the United States • The Sustainability of the Hindu Rate

3. Percentage Changes in US Real GDP http://www.gpoaccess.gov/eop/tables08.html

4. India-China Growth Rate Comparison http://www.singularity2050.com/2007/02/indiachina_grow.html

5. Historical Trends (continued) • China’s Expansionary and Tumultuous History • Expansionary Vision • Internal Aggression and Violence • External Expansion • Compartmentalization of Politics, War and Economics • Recent Rapid Growth • Separation of Economics and Politics • Economic Openings and Controlled Polity

6. China (continued) • One Country Two Systems • Hong Kong and Mainland • The Case of Taiwan • FDI Liberalization and External Basis for Growth • FDI Liberalization and Export Boom • China as Manufacturing Factory for the World • Sustainability of Double Digit Growth • Sustainability of Financial Surplus • Rapid Slowdown in 2008 Due To The Financial Crisis

7. India’s Prospects • External Openings in Trade and Investments • External Liberalization and Financial Asset Flows • The Middle Path • The Hindu Rate is Scaled Up to Double Itself • Controlled Internal and External Economic Reform and Liberalization • Economist Haven • PM, FM, DCPC, Commerce Minister, Rural Development Minister, RBI Chairman, et al.

8. India’s Prospects (continued) • Fragmented and Vote Bank Politics • Money Makes The World Go Round • Missing Infrastructure • Smart and Forward Looking Industrialists • Financiers Monitored and Controlled • Money is Not Everything • Fiscal Policy Important • Cultural Breakdown and Confusion Between Bharat and India

9. India’s Prospects (continued) • The Hindu Rate Regresses to Itself in the Long Run and Follows the Long-term US Growth • Bharat Continues and India Grows • Strategic Alliances and Globalization Are a Mixed Blessing • More Economic Benefits • More Security Risks • More and Bigger Role in the World • Bharat and India March Forward

10. Can India Match China? • No • It Does Not Need To. • China Itself Cannot Match Its Accomplishments in the Last Thirty Years. • China Will Be More Severely Affected by the Current Financial Crisis. • India Can and Should Learn From China’s Success In Recent Decades.

11. Policy Implications for India’sSustainable Growth • Reduced Financial Inflows Should Be Made Up By Internal Expansion of Credit and Money. • More Liberalization of Industry and Agriculture. • More Public-Private Infrastructure Investment. • More Investment in Human Capital and Technology. • More Monitored Financial Liberalization.

12. Thank You! Questions?