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Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and

Principal Scientists  Agustin Gimenez , GRAS- INIA, Uruguay Walter E. Baethgen , IFDC, Uruguay Ricardo Romero , GRAS-INIA, Uruguay Graciela Magrin , INTA, Argentina María I. Travasso , INTA, Argentina Osvaldo Canziani , Argentina Holger Meinke , APSRU, DPI, Australia Junior Scientists

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Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and

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  1. Principal Scientists  • Agustin Gimenez, GRAS- INIA, Uruguay • Walter E. Baethgen, IFDC, Uruguay • Ricardo Romero, GRAS-INIA, Uruguay • Graciela Magrin, INTA, Argentina • María I. Travasso, INTA, Argentina • Osvaldo Canziani, Argentina • Holger Meinke, APSRU, DPI, Australia • Junior Scientists • José P. Castaño, GRAS-INIA, Uruguay • Laura Olivera, GRAS-INIA, Uruguay • Gabriel Rodríguez, INTA, Argentina Building capacity to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptive responses for the mixed crop/livestock production systems in the Argentinean and Uruguayan Pampas

  2. Mixed systems in the Pampas

  3. Objective To further develop capacity and to establish, use and maintain an agricultural systems networkin the Pampas to assess the impact of climate change/variability and develop adaptive responses for the mixed grain/livestock production systems.

  4. Project Premise One of the most effective manners for assisting agricultural stakeholders to be prepared and adapt to possible climate change scenarios, is by helping them to better cope with current climate variability

  5. What paper will we publish? Vulnerability and Adaptation assessment of crop/livestock production systems in the Argentinean and Uruguayan Pampas.

  6. Activities • HOW? • APSIM (Agricultural Production Systems Simulator) • Calibrated and validated • Integrate crop/pasture simulation models and climate change scenarios in a system able to assist planning and decision-making at the farm level

  7. Min Avg Max All results of CGMs Run • Climate Change Scenarios • GCMs: Obtain major shifts (months, variables) • Define ranges (including incremental) Range: Min - Max Incremental approach to generate daily data for APSIM

  8. Distribution of Prices (historical data) Ag. Sys. Mgm. Current and Future Climate APSIM Gross Margin Distribution (main index) Assess the impacts of climate change /climate variability on farmer’s income

  9. Study the vulnerability of different types of mixed production systems • Changes due to CC Scenarios of: • Frequency of negative Gross Margin • Variability of Gross Margins

  10. Define whole-farm adaptive measurements better adjusted to cope with current climate variability APSIM allows evaluation of farming practices and crop mixes which lead to increased system resiliency

  11. Risk and Vulnerability Mapping Integration of GIS and Remote Sensing with the current project tools What will we incorporate from the workshop?

  12. Other options will be discussed with all project team members

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