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Cumulative effects of development and climate change on the PCH

This progress report analyzes the cumulative effects of development and climate change on the Porcupine Caribou Herd (PCH). It examines the best and worst conditions experienced by the herd in different seasons and explores the avoidance behavior of the caribou in relation to human activity. The report also discusses the modeling of cumulative effects, the link between body size and vital rates, and the impact of climate variability on vegetation and population density. It highlights the need for translating results into development scenarios and obtaining necessary input data to run the model effectively.

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Cumulative effects of development and climate change on the PCH

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  1. Cumulative effects of development and climate change on the PCH Progress report to the PCMB, October 23, 2012 by Don Russell

  2. Climate analysis 1990s best conditions during calving 1990s worst conditions in summer 1980s best conditions in summer Conditions mixed in fall 1990s worst conditions in winter 2000s best conditions in winter 1990s worst conditions in spring

  3. Winter RSF analysis • Avoidance of Dempster • Not related to snow • Stronger between 1985-1998 than 1999-2010 • Appear strong avoidance of communities • May be related to location of communities at periphery of range and/or avoidance in relation to human activity • Weak avoidance of seismic lines and winter road • Not related to snow • Stronger between 1985-1998 than 1999-2010 • NEED TO TRANSLATE RESULTS INTO DEVELOPMENT SCENARIOS

  4. Modeling Cumulative effects Climate change Development Body size Link to vital rates (birth, death, etc) Climate variability Energy -Protein model Vegetation Development Development Population Density Normal conditions Population model Normal conditions Harvest policy -aggressive during increase -restricted in decline Climate change, development Harvest policy Climate change, development

  5. Input data – what we need to run the model DONE TO DO • Over 1000 caribou sampled • Validation data • Fat and Protein estimates X Body size • CARMA Climate database • 33 years (1979-2011) • Analysis complete • Need to develop input datasets to reflect role of climate in population trends Climate variability Vegetation • CCRS map revised by S. Francis X • Develop input datasets to reflect role of density in changes in body condition • Based on population estimates Population Density

  6. Scenarios – running E-P model, developing scenarios DONE TO DO Energy -Protein model • Model revised to include protein • Scenario Builder complete X • Historical climate analysis complete • Develop, run, evaluate future climate scenarios Climate change Development (Dempster) • Human footprint map • RSF model on Dempster • Develop, run, evaluate future climate scenarios • Major update – especially recent use of 1002 (3rd Summer Ecology report?) Development (1002) • Old analysis of 1002 development – “Sustain” • How to handle one-off development projects Development (other) X

  7. Output – factors to link condition to vital rates DONE TO DO Link to vital rates (birth, death, etc) • Need thorough review of linkages • Develop easy way to output key factors • Model tracks all factors

  8. Caribou “estimator” TO DO DONE • Develop linkage to E-P model output • Develop easy way to output key factors • Do we want to carve out role of predator Population model • Model now includes variability and risk – (version 1) • Currently focus of “estimator” • Develop, run, evaluate population level policies (e.g. predator control) Harvest policy • Model now includes variability and risk – (version 1) • Develop, run, evaluate other actions (e.g. 1002 mitigations) Other management actions

  9. CARMA 2012 • Gathering in Vancouver December 4-6, 2012 • Theme “CARMA moving from Knowledge to Action” • Nomination for Arctic Inspiration Prize • Knowledge to Action Plan focussed on: • Managing and monitoring through abundance • Assessing Cumulative Effects • Caribou health monitoring plan • New Website www.caff.is/carma

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