Agenda

1. Agenda • Research planning process (15’) • Introduction to the Energy& Climate area (10’) • Initial project ideas of C&E programs (10’ each) • ENE • APD • RAV • Project ideas of other areas (25’) • Next steps (10’)

2. IIASA Research Planning Process 2010

3. Contents • Overall process • Organization of scientific work at IIASA • Format of research plan • Project proposals

4. Overall process • Implementation Plan presented to Council in Nov 2009 • IPSC developed guidelines for research plan (Dec 24, 2009) • Programs provide draft research plans on projects (Feb 28) • Comments by SAC (March 25-26) • Revised research plans to Council (end of April) • Council feedback and comments (before June meeting) • Council approves research plan (June 14-15)

5. Organization of scientific work at IIASA • 3 areas, 3 cross-cutting themes • 1-2 Programs per theme • 5-7 projects per program(incl. 2 collaborative)

6. Allocation of programs to themes • Energy and Climate Change • ENE & GEA • APD • Food and Water • FOR & LUC • EEP • Poverty and Equity • RAV & HGC • Other IIASA Researchers (POP, others) • Drivers of Global Transformations • TNT • POP • Advanced Systems Analysis Forum • DYN & IME • Other IIASA Researchers (EEP, others) • Policy, Decision, and Negotiation Analysis Forum • Selected IIASA Researchers (RAV, others)

7. Project proposals • 2.5 pages per project (0.5 page summary + 2 pages description to go in Annex) • To be developed by proponents of involved programs • (Co?)headed by non-program leaders • Need adoption by involved program (leaders) • Need “harmonization” across all proposed projects

8. Envisaged format of research plan Draft research plan (by Feb 28) Contents: • Integrative overview of research planned for the six thematic problem and cross-cutting areas(drafted by RPCC & IPSC) • Linkages between IIASA’s expertise and its programs to the six thematic problem and crosscutting areas(drafted by programs) • Project proposals (drafted by the participating programs)

9. Approach for today’s meeting Brief outlines of ideas for possible projects • Programs in Energy and Climate area • Interest from other programs • Brainstorming for new ideas and how they are related • Not a review of proposed ideas • Stimulate collaboration between IIASA scientists • Identify partnerships that could deliver (incl. outside IIASA) • Cooperative rather than confrontational style • We will not(!) decide on specific project ideas today

10. Energy and Climate Change Directions given in the Implementation Plan

11. Key policy challenges • Identifying policy options, portfolios and associated investments that have lower life-cycle costs and lower or even zero emissions on all scales, • Developing local, national and regional scale solutions that manage the transition in the mid-term without compromising economic development goals, and • Creating mechanisms to overcome institutional obstacles to implementing these options.

12. Research question 1 What are short-to-medium term mitigation and adaptation needs in order to achieve long-term climate objectives? To bridge the different time scales, research will distill near-term characteristics of the transition necessary for the achievement of global long-term climate change mitigation targets, identifying transformations, which are robust against a wide range of development and emission paths. The analyses will also identify inadequate short-term measures that may prevent the achievement of long-term climate objectives. Critical issues are, for example, to improve the understanding of potential lock-in effects in the human systems given long-lived infrastructure and socio-economic inertia, deep uncertainties, understanding barriers to rapid technology diffusion, R&D and deployment, institutional and governance changes. Understanding the long-term dynamics will require also integrating climate feedbacks into the analysis through fully coupled integrated assessment models with explicit representations of the earth systems.

13. Research question 2 How do these global transformation paths translate into national and local mitigation and adaptation strategies? To bridge the spatial scales across human and natural systems, IIASA’s research will develop tools for the analysis of mitigation and adaptation options, avoided impacts and their costs at the regional, national and local scales that are consistent with the required global transformation. This will include development aspects, economic consequences, technology penetration as well as co-benefits and trade-offs with other policy objectives. Together with collaborators from IIASA NMO countries the tools will be implemented for a wide range of industrialized and developing countries that are critical for the global transition path, to establish international comparability of mitigation and adaptation efforts and their local consequences.

14. Research question 3 How would such transition strategies affect different sectors and economic actors, and which policy instruments could help implementation? To bridge inequities across economic sectors and actors, IIASA’s research will identify solutions that integrate the main greenhouse gas emitting sectors, such as energy, households, industry, transport, agriculture and forestry. This requires an integrated assessment of critical interactions and feedbacks between these sectors, including competition over land for food, fiber, and bio-energy, and studies identifying appropriate governance structures and incentive mechanisms. Special attention will be paid to how to overcome institutional obstacles because of a lack of political will, misaligned economic incentives, and other barriers to innovation, and to prevent lock-in situations, e.g., due to long-lived infrastructure and other factors.

15. Some ideas on possible projects

16. “The Energy Challenge Triangle” Energy Poverty/Access • P1: Energy Access • Focus: clean cooking fuels (LPG, kerosene) and electricity for the poor • New Methods: • Explicit representation of heterogeneity and income distributions (equity) • behavioral aspects (convenience, fuel choice) • capital scarcity • Aim: • Assessment of policy leverages (fuel subsidies, micro-financing), financial needs, barriers Sustainable Development Environment (Climate Change and Pollution) Energy Security

17. “The Energy Challenge Triangle” P2: Integrated assessment of climate change Focus: holistic climate mitigation strategies, considering synergies between poverty and development and feedbacks between energy, food, fiber, water Method: Next generation of IAM modeling – move from GGI soft-linkages to full integration Aim: Assessment of feasibility, impacts and benefits of climate mitigation More robust assessment of the possible contribution of developing countries with dominant agricultural sector emissions. Energy Poverty/Access Sustainable Development Environment (Climate Change and Pollution) Energy Security

18. “The Energy Challenge Triangle” P3: Life-styles, behavioral changes, consumption patterns, social heterogeneity Do we need them? How much can they contribute compared to techno-economic solutions? P4: Spatial heterogeneity Mismatch between energy supply and demand densities (urbanization, industrialization). Apply downscaling and spatial modeling methods to understand energy system implications (eg for renewables) P5: Energy technology diffusion Empirical analysis and modeling to understand dynamics of technology development, diffusion and constraints as well as policies to overcome the constraints and to accelerate technological change. P6: Investments and R&D Assessment of investment requirements and financial mechanism for the transformation (access, security, climate, etc..) P7: Policy trade-offs and synergies (integration) The nature of the transformation will depend on competing policy priorities. Apply multi-criteria optimization methods to identify robust policy portfolios (strongly linked to the IAM project). Energy Poverty/Access Sustainable Development Environment (Climate Change and Pollution) Energy Security

19. Some APD project ideas (1) • Modelling national transition paths to 2050 • Based on existing GAINS data and policy networks • Include dynamic features (lifetime of infrastructure, lock-in, sequential decision making, back-casting?, etc) • National scale • Linked to global long-term analysis • Reflect increasing uncertainties to 2050 • Difficulty to define reference baseline • Systems perspective (multi-sectoral, population and technology drivers, macro-economic feedbacks, co-benefits, health) • Non-technical measures (life style changes, etc.) • Implementation focus on OECD and BRICS countries

20. Some APD project ideas (2) • Role of aerosols in controlling near-term climate (co-benefits, etc.) • to supplement, not substitute mitigation of long-lived species • Role of life style changes for mid-term transition • Economic instruments for making transition happen • Methodological issues (sequential decision making, back-casting, identification of limiting constraints, etc.) • Energy access in BRICS

21. Some RAV project ideas • International climate change governance • Policy systems modeling to identify feasible regulatory pathways at overlapping scales • Distributional aspects of climatic extreme events • Econometric analysis and economic modeling to identify cross sectoral impacts of climate hazards • Fairness and resilience in adapting to climate change • Participatory systems modeling to improve natural resource management and access. • Catastrophic climate related risk and social protection • Econometric analysis and economic modeling to identify the role of institutions in climate vulnerability reduction