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ASSIST Conference 27-28 August 2009 Fairmont Hotel, St Andrews The Performance and Improvement Agenda

This Session. The prospects for the economyImplications for public spendingImplications for local government

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ASSIST Conference 27-28 August 2009 Fairmont Hotel, St Andrews The Performance and Improvement Agenda

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    1. ASSIST Conference 27-28 August 2009 Fairmont Hotel, St Andrews The Performance and Improvement Agenda Dr. Mark McAteer Director of Governance and Performance Management Improvement Service

    5. GDP Forecast for 2011 – 2013 Spending Review Treasury: 3.25% per annum: Cumulatively: 10.6% Independent forecasts: 1.9%, 2.5%, 2.6%: Cumulatively: 7.2% (Bank of England; OECD) Note: (1) Each 1% below forecast trend = .75%, TME = 1.5%, DEL = £440 million (cash) (2) Effect cumulative and multiplicative

    6. Points No independent forecaster endorses Treasury assumptions or can explain them Treasury has never explained assumptions: do not look possible 3.25% growth would require: - Private consumption at pre 2008 levels (wages, credit, housing) - Government spending at pre 2008/09 levels - Sharply declining unemployment

    7. UK Public Expenditure Issues Prioritisation & the Scottish block: IFS -v- CPPR Reining in borrowing: Balanced budget before 2017/18 Calman: Phasing out Barnet (2015/16)

    8. Short-Term Strategic Options Minimise real reduction by controlling inflation: Wage strategy; procurement (1% on wages = £150 million 1% improvement procurement value = £90 million) Efficiency & productivity measures: absence; contestability Hard prioritisation but if health & education fully protected then impact doubles in other areas Review of input commitments against outcomes (e.g. free personal care -v- reducing inequality and early intervention or class sizes -v- education outcomes)

    10. Medium – Long Term Scenarios Convergence around 1% real growth 2015/16 onwards Spending would still lower in real terms in 2017/18 Problem is that demand will grow consistently across period (2% - 3% real per annum)

    11. BV2 Corporate Assessment Framework Outcome focused audit - ‘proportionality’ in audit & inspection - Vision & direction - Effectiveness of partnership working - Community engagement - Governance & accountability - Use of resources – includes competitiveness - Equalities - Sustainability

    12. Implications Significant gap between spending & demand - pressure for significant efficiency & productivity improvement Need to prioritise & rethink business models : JVs , LLPs , Partnerships, consortia etc Need to look ‘whole system’ – structure & governance of local public services; redesign around outcomes How does facilities management fit in & how does it account for performance in pressurised financial environment ?

    13. F.M. Performance Challenges Linking cost, quality & outcomes The appropriateness & sustainability of business models (LLPs; Joint Ventures etc) Benchmarking comparability competitiveness contestability context Scaling, sharing & efficiency The ten year view: 2020 vision & models (the minus 15 test)

    14. End Points Best value & accounting for performance ethical not just technical requirements New models, trends & engagement Governance, performance & accountability critical Rethinking from an outcomes perspective – local integration vs national aggregation

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