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2007 EMME Users Conference 12 October, 2007

2007 EMME Users Conference 12 October, 2007. Modelling Needs of Peel Region in the Context of the Emerging Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area. By: Murray McLeod, P. Eng. Manager of Transportation Planning, Peel Region, Ontario, Canada. Purpose. Transportation Challenges in Peel

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2007 EMME Users Conference 12 October, 2007

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  1. 2007 EMME Users Conference12 October, 2007 Modelling Needs of Peel Region in the Context of the Emerging Greater Toronto and Hamilton Area By: Murray McLeod, P. Eng. Manager of Transportation Planning, Peel Region, Ontario, Canada

  2. Purpose Transportation Challenges in Peel Use of EMME Modelling to Measure Transportation Performance Use of 3D Graphics to Communicate Value of Peel Transportation Solutions (a Work in Progress)

  3. Peel’s Strategic Location Caledon Peel York Brampton Halton Mississauga Toronto Hamilton Durham

  4. Provincial Policy 2005 : Places to Grow (PTG), A Blueprint for Development

  5. PTG Forecasts Rapid Population Growth in Suburban 905 Areas Population ( in Millions) Population ( in Millions) 905 Area (Peel, York, Durham, Halton, and Hamilton) Peel York 416 Area (Toronto) Durham Halton Hamilton 1988 Source: 1971-2006 Statistics Canada 2011-2031 Places to Grow

  6. GO Rail and Bus Service:A Radial Network Source: Peel Long Range Transportation Plan Report – September 2005

  7. Provincial MoveOntario 2020 Announcement, June 2007

  8. Peel’s Encouragement of Sustainable Transportation in the Future Daily Trips (millions) 3.0 2.5 2.0 1.5 1.0 0.5 0 Current Trend Aggressive Transit/TDM 70% Auto Driver Current Trend Sustainable Travel Modes Auto Passenger 30% Walk & Cycle Transit 1986 1991 1996 2001 2006 2011 2016 2021 2026 2031 1.7 cars/household

  9. Peel (GTHA) Transit Challenges Full daily GO Rail service (e.g. Milton, Georgetown) New GO Rail service (Bolton) New express trains (e.g. Brampton) Add circumferential services (GO Bus and GO Rail) Enhance local transit network

  10. Peel Uses a 4-Stage Transportation Forecasting Model (EMME) Trip Generation Work Other School Airport Trip Distribution Work Other Apply Growth Factors Apply Growth Factors Modal Split Peak Hour Factors Trip Assignment

  11. Model Application: Arterial Extension of Highway 427 Origin-Destination plot (Select-Link Analysis)

  12. Model Application: 2/3 of Peak Hour Travel on Peel Arterials will be Congested

  13. Peel (GTHA) Highway/Road Challenges Extend key freeways (410, 427) Selective Widening (e.g. 401 west of 410) New Freeways (e.g. GTA West Corridor) Roads to support new development and transit Expansion to support inter-regional travel

  14. Goods Movement in Peel (Major Freight Hub for Southern Ontario) Peel Region

  15. Peel’s Industrial Economy: Freight Centres Around the Pearson Airport Legend Service Facility Yard Warehouse Intermodal Terminal Highway Network Canadian Cities US Cities

  16. Canada-US Trade is Dominated by Trucks on Hwy 401 and QEW (crossing Peel)

  17. Ontario/Quebec Trade Corridor Announcement and MOU, July 2007

  18. Peel/GTHA Challenges for Goods Movement Peel/Private Sector Goods Movement Planning Partnership Strategic Goods Movement Plan for Peel Improvements to NAFTA Corridors Improvements to Border Crossings Pursue Multi-Modal Gateway Solutions

  19. Transportation Performance as a Driver of Transportation Solutions Transportation issues in Peel Assessing Peel/GTHA for transportation performance Use of 3D graphics to communicate value of Peel transportation solutions (interested in your views)

  20. Transportation Performance Measurement Framework (Passengers & Goods) Performance Measures Time/speed Network connectivity redundancy Choice/mode Reliability Service Quality Safety Air emissions Valuation Economic • Social/Quality of Life Environment

  21. Highway 401 AADT Growth (1982, 1987, 1989, 1992) Oshawa Oakville

  22. Speed/Flow Performance of Highway 401 Westbound section from Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995) MTO Compass System Data

  23. AM Peak Congestion Doubles Travel Time on Highway 401 Westbound Collectors, Avenue Road to Renforth Drive (1995) Time Travelled (min) Distance Travelled (km)

  24. Speed/Volume Performance of a Freeway Lane Highway Capacity Manual, 1985

  25. Calgary Congestion Study Woudsma, 2006

  26. Congestion in Calgary over time Woudsma, 2006

  27. Morning Peak Congestion Influence Surface Woudsma, 2006

  28. 2001 Peel Population by Traffic Zone

  29. 2001 Peel Population

  30. 2001 GTA Population

  31. Projected 2031 GTA Employment (PTG) Soberman Report, Nov 2006

  32. Employment Change 2001 to 2031

  33. Density of Transit Use in 2001 (TTS) Soberman Report, Nov 2006

  34. GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time)

  35. GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time) Existing GO Rail Service

  36. GO Rail Service in Peel: Total Travel Time to Union Station (Vehicle Time to Station Plus Rail Time) Express GO Rail Service from Bramalea Station Existing GO Rail Service Plus a New Bolton Station

  37. AM Peak Hour Freeflow Road Network Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)

  38. AM Peak Hour Congested Road Network Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.)

  39. AM Peak Hour Travel Time(to Highway 401 at Yonge St.) Congested Road Network Free flow Road Network

  40. Other 3D Mapping Applications Accessibility to Jobs Impact of Flow Management of Highways Impact of HOV Lanes Impact of Other TDM Measures Impact of Tolls

  41. Final Thoughts EMME is a tool to measure the impacts of future transportation improvements ARCGIS is a tool to visualize the impacts of future transportation improvements ARCGIS helps communicate the value of transportation improvements (for transportation decision-makers, the public, politicians and senior funding agencies)

  42. Special thanks to: ESRI Canada: Alex Miller Matt English Susan Enyedy-Goldner Questions?? Demonstration

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