Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE CSU, Chico Jack W. Baker, PhD Stanford University

1. Overview of Commercial Software Development Plans Related to the FEMA P-58 Damage/Loss Methodology Curt B. Haselton, PhD, PE CSU, Chico Jack W. Baker, PhD Stanford University • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

2. Overview of FEMA P-58 P-58 is a performance prediction methodology based on a 10-year FEMA study (enabled by much previous research). P-58 is an alternative to other experience-based or judgment-based methods (e.g. HAZUS, ATC-13, etc.). P-58 is tailored to building-specific analysis (as opposed to regional/portfolio analyses). ATC is currently working on another 5-year effort to improving the methodology, implementation, ease of use. The REDi Rating System (this afternoon) uses a modified version of FEMA P-58 as part of the process. • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

3. Overview of FEMA P-58 FEMA P-58 Output Results: Losses ($) [USRC: Repair Cost Rating] Fatalities & injuries [USRC: Safety Rating] Repair time & red tagging [USRC: Recovery Time Rating (some translation required)] Types of analysis results: Intensity-based (e.g. DBE) [USRC Ratings] Time-based (annualized values) Scenario-based (for a given event) • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

4. FEMA P-58: Output Examples Sample results (12-story RC frame): • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

5. FEMA P-58: Output Examples Dig as deep as you like… • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

6. FEMA P-58: Methodology Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

7. FEMA P-58: Methodology Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

8. FEMA P-58: Methodology Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

9. FEMA P-58: Methodology • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

10. FEMA P-58: Methodology Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

11. FEMA P-58: Methodology Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences Monte Carlo Simulation used (“roll dice” thousands of times). Each “dice roll” gives a single observation of losses (and other consequences). Putting all of the “dice rolls” together gives solid statistical information on performance. • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

12. FEMA P-58: Benefits Objective process based on data and research. Quantitative performance information: Dig as deep as you like. Tools to communicate with owners. Solid statistical basis. • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

13. FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty” • Hazard and Ground Motions • Soil and hazard curve • Ground motions (if needed) • Structural Responses • Option #1: Response-history • Option #2: Simplified method • Damage Prediction • Contents (str. and non-str.) • Fragility curves • Loss Estimation (loss curves) and other consequences I need to hire a geotech to do this…? I need to do a response-history analysis…? I need to count and enter every foot of partition wall and other contents…? • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

14. FEMA P-58: Perceived “Difficulty” It may not be as hard to implement FEMA P-58 as some currently perceive it to be. The “What If” Question: What if we had a stream-lined FEMA P-58 analysis that could be done in hours rather than days (and provide all of the same benefits)? • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

15. My Thinking Over Past Couple Years Most of the barrier to widespread use of FEMA P-58 are related to software and ease-of-use. FEMA and ATC have created a great methodology but are not in the business of maintaining software. FEMA has funded additional ongoing development and is currently working on both the methodology and design aids (to improve ease of use, etc.). For our profession to move forward with use of FEMA P-58 methods someone needs to step-up to provide and maintain enabling software once FEMA/ATC are done with Phase II work. • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

16. My Thinking Over Past Couple Years In February, Jack Baker and I decided to work to fill this needed role by: Creating user-friendly software to implement P-58. Maintaining software over time (fragilities, etc.). Improving and extending the methodology in the future after ATC/FEMA work is done (improvements, comparative methods, etc.). Timing: Our timing lines up with the USRC work, so we would like to help support the USRC process. • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

17. Software Implementation of FEMA P-58 Hazard and Ground Motions Soil and hazard curve Ground motions (if needed) Structural Responses Option #1: Response-history Option #2: Simplified method Damage Prediction Contents (str. and non-str.) Fragility curves Loss Estimation (loss curves) Soil and hazard curves embedded. Simplified method embedded (only need period, mode shape, yield drift). Structural and non-structural contents estimates and pre-populated. Two-level structure: (1) Simple (basic rating, prelim. design, PML) (2) Refine and go as deep as you like (full new PBD). • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

18. Status and Timeline Status and Timeline: February: Started. April: Secured a National Science Foundation research commercialization grant to help fund. Currently: In active development (Jack, me, others). Fall: Beta release expected this fall. ATC/FEMA: Being done in coordination with ATC (so all pulling in same direction) but not funded by ATC (because needs to become a commercial tool to be sustainable). • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

19. Draft SP3 Tool • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development

20. Next Steps We want to support and enable the USRC rating system effort as best as possible. We are still in active development, so please: Let us know how we can tailor things to be most useful to the USRC effort. Give us any other feedback/thoughts (we are all ears!). E-mail: curt@hbrisk.com, chaselton@csuchico.edu Cell: (530) 514-8980 • U.S. Resiliency Council • Presentation on Software Development